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January 2026 OBS and Discussion

TriPol

By TriPol,
in New York City Metro

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Wxoutlooksblog

Wxoutlooksblog

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Ensembles really appeared to have overdone the warmth over the east US around the mid month period. The sings of an east coast trough are appearing around 1/11, which is a solid few days earlier than expected a few days ago. That will likely shorten our torch from 1/5-1/10, before a more favorable pattern reloads. I just don't like seeing such dry and mild conditions across south, central, and west US. They have a lot of ground to make up. Midwest and northeast are the only parts of the US that have had any meaningful cold or snow whatsoever this season. Even with the east coast trough, unless the pacific slows down enough to give us a big coastal, everything will be dominated by the northern stream. That means it'll take a lot of little events to boost us up towards seasonal average. I'm a bit skeptical

Count me as not skeptical at all. Winter has had a great start. We will get our snow when cold fronts stall just to our south and east and waves of low pressure move up along them. We are already ahead of the pace of most recent winter seasons on snowfall and look to continue the pace by mid January. As I previously noted, there's a strong cold front which was timed for January 12th and is now timed for Jan 10th or 11th. Patience.

WX/PT 

 

 

 

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EasternLI
EasternLI

This winter is nothing like the other 2020's winters that everyone has PTSD from. Just look at how December has behaved. But don't only look at that. Look at how we're rolling forward into January now

psv88
psv88

Your posts are usually bad. But this is not even accurate, at all. We had a big torch after the 96 blizzard and had a record setting winter.    we all get that you want to piss in everyone’s co

BxEngine
BxEngine

Bickering bullshit getting hidden. You all made your points, discuss the weather not the person. And if you have already declared winter over (before the best december in a while around here) please f

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

A few flurries are possible in parts of the region late tonight and early tomorrow. Some areas could receive a dusting of snow. Tomorrow and Monday will be mainly dry and unseasonably cool days with highs finishing near freezing in New York City.

Milder weather will likely begin to overspread the region on Tuesday. The milder period appears likely to last for about a week, but there is some uncertainty about its duration. Afterward, conditions could become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA goes positive.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +9.62 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.782 today. 

 

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sussexcountyobs

sussexcountyobs

Posted
Posted

 Went out onto the lake later this afternoon to see the guys and drink a couple beers once the wind died. 6-7" of clear hard ice. 2 fires going along the shoreline to warm up. It was nice. Young bucks playing hockey on the rink they been clearing snow off for a few weeks. Mostly pickerel caught. But a few yellow perch, which are the best to eat when caught through the ice. The pickerel were scattered around on the ice for the Bald eagles.

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Krs4Lfe

Krs4Lfe

Posted
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Models generally rush a pattern change (both for bad patterns and good patterns). However, the models appear to be converging on the 11th for a flip back to colder weather after our torch. But it would likely take a few days after that to be able to usher in a snowy pattern. Hopefully not just for us but for Central US as well. They’re having a record warm and snowless winter. Start getting some storms passing through that region and then we can get some more passing through here as well. Our odds are better when we’re not just limited to northern  stream clippers 

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Prue11

Prue11

Posted
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47 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Same. Quarter tank in a month. Can’t remember last time that happened 

1/4 tank a month during winter sounds good to me. Like Sussex said I’ve gone through almost 1/2 a tank a month and my thermostat is never set higher than 66

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

This flu sucks. Would like a warm up so I can go outside and be able to breathe without it hurting 

For that reason the 159hr cutter will become the typical lame SWFE some sleet to rain to prolong your suffering. 

Hope it's better soon. I just dealt with it and many of my friends and coworkers are sick too. Bad flu season.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Wow another flip flop. These models suck past 3 minutes 

there has been no flip flopping on the GFS , Canadian and Euro Ops through Sunday Jan. 11 all 3 have the cold returning that day - its after that the models begin having differing opinions especially on any storm development and or tracks which is normal at that range...........

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psv88

psv88

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Posted
29 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

For that reason the 159hr cutter will become the typical lame SWFE some sleet to rain to prolong your suffering. 

Hope it's better soon. I just dealt with it and many of my friends and coworkers are sick too. Bad flu season.

 

16 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

Hope you feel better soon. I just got my flu shot which I hope helps. A little warmup won’t hurt anyone. 

Thanks. I actually got the shot. So I assume it would have been worse if I hadn’t. 

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Volcanic Winter

Volcanic Winter

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, psv88 said:

This flu sucks. Would like a warm up so I can go outside and be able to breathe without it hurting 

Sure it's not COVID? I had it last year in December, came down with it while in Iceland for our first winter trip. Absolutely sucked and I did everything in my power not to let it ruin our trip, which was difficult when it's built around hiking and outdoor activity.

But the painful breathing (like vague sense of soreness when you take a deep breath) has been a hallmark symptom of having COVID pretty good. I suppose ultimately it doesn't really matter much anymore, but yeah.

Feel better!

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BxEngine

BxEngine

Posted
Posted

Enough to be measurable and to have to clean the cars off again. Ill take it, keeps covering up the dirty snow. Even this nuisance stuff is better than most of our previous few years. 
 

dont remember the last time i couldnt take down christmas decorations yet because of the snow. 

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