Moderate snowfall 12/14/2025 WWA up for most of the area

[North and West]

Aren’t we all going to “fusilli” if Mother Nature skunks us again!

This thread is full of pasta-bilities.


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[kat5hurricane]

2 hours ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

"This is the hardest I've seen it snow in years" - typically posted about every 2-3 weeks during the winter, anytime rates exceed one inch per hour

"Puking Snow" is one of my favorites....for 1/2 inch an hour

[Northof78]

2"-4" from 287 E and Rt. 78 S. 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, mob1 said:

3K NAM much improved as well. 

Hopefully another bump north to make it 3-6.

[WE GOT HIM]

2 hours ago, North and West said:

-Ripping


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rippim

[RU848789]

Love the "New and Improved" NAM, lol, i.e., the RRFS, which will be replacing both NAMs sometime next year (supposedly).  

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Love the "New and Improved" NAM, lol, i.e., the RRFS, which will be replacing both NAMs sometime next year (supposedly).  

Looking at the soundings, looks like a deep layer of saturation that should support decent snow growth. If we play everything right, maybe close to a warning event especially just east of my area. Port Jefferson to around Riverhead is usually good in these. 

[SHELEG]

Can we change the title  of this thread 

To something like first plowable snow of the season for many?

[coastalplainsnowman]

56 minutes ago, North and West said:

This thread is full of pasta-bilities.


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Orzo it seems.

[Nibor]

31 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Love the "New and Improved" NAM, lol, i.e., the RRFS, which will be replacing both NAMs sometime next year (supposedly).  

It’s been reliably the most robust of the guidance for this upcoming event. Really living up to its predecessor. 

[jm1220]

GFS looked a little better to me at 18z.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

GFS looked a little better to me at 18z.

Yep slowly going to the other models 

[RU848789]

"GFS, your failure is complete." Spoken in the voice of Darth Vader.  As an aside, the system told me I couldn't post a GIF showing these 3 images as it was too large, but I was able to paste the 3 images in separately.  Seems a bit odd.  

 

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Finally 

[Nibor]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

Getting RRFS’d doesn’t have as good a ring as getting NAM’d.

We could call it getting… railroaded fuck shit’d?

[Stormlover74]

DT says high ratios

[psv88]

It gun snow

[winterwarlock]

lets hold off on victory laps until the storms post mortem on this yet to be named weekend clipper

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Looking at the soundings, looks like a deep layer of saturation that should support decent snow growth. If we play everything right, maybe close to a warning event especially just east of my area. Port Jefferson to around Riverhead is usually good in these. 

On both NAMs, at least at the height of the storm for areas snowing decently, omega (lift) values are in the robust -10 to -15 ubar/sec in the saturated DGZ, so we should see good supersaturation occur and decent dendrite growth for ratios above 10:1.  It's why my guesstimate is for ~4" at my house vs. the 3.3" forecast by the NWS.  

[North and West]

DT says high ratios

The spacing, graphics, and grammar on this site raise the risk of epileptic seizures.


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[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

On both NAMs, at least at the height of the storm for areas snowing decently, omega (lift) values are in the robust -10 to -15 ubar/sec in the saturated DGZ, so we should see good supersaturation occur and decent dendrite growth for ratios above 10:1.  It's why my guesstimate is for ~4" at my house vs. the 3.3" forecast by the NWS.  

Here at the coast we’re starting at or slightly above freezing which is of course the thorn in most of our setups. It’ll cool quickly though. Hopefully the robust models win out, there could definitely be some good banding for a while that could drop an inch an hour or so. 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, North and West said:

The spacing, graphics, and grammar on this site raise the rush of epileptic seizures.


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I think tourettes and dyslexia 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, North and West said:

The spacing, graphics, and grammar on this site raise the rush of epileptic seizures.


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When I lived in Central PA we had numerous setups like this where snow just skipped over the middle third of the state because of downslope, and it always sucked. 

[wilton_wx]

18z Euro AI showing pretty similar trend to what we've seen all day from it. I think its the best model for this one. Just under 3" for my area, I think with good ratios we could easily get to the 3/3.5" range.

[vegan_edible]

missing out on this one up in albs, but hopefully it goes well down there. theoretically, this could be the storm that breaks the magic 4" number or whatever that is 

[wthrmn654]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Probably a state of emergency for south jersey

Curfews in pasta jersey no doubt! 

[MJO812]

Sref

[SnoSki14]

I like 2-4" from this. Advisory is right on the money. Agree about the ratios. Some localized spots will definitely see 4"+

[jm1220]

48 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

We were spoiled with all the bombs we got not too long ago. Back to reality. I’ll take the 4” 

In this pattern we take this and run. It’s still overall hostile for any kind of significant snow. 

[weatherpruf]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

In this pattern we take this and run. It’s still overall hostile for any kind of significant snow. 

yes. get your cameras ready. it may be the only snow of the season; if you celebrate holidays and have decorations, it is a rare chance to get great seasonal photos; make a card.