yoda Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 Its time for snow. And cold. But mainly snow please 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 22 Author Share Posted November 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 The December to remember or the usual crap? Find out on this month-long special of Weenies Hope for Snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 LFG 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 Many times my first acc. snow has been around Dec. 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 Need the cold to get the snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 Killington and Stowe have opened for skiing. May the snow soon come a few hundred miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 3 hours ago, bncho said: The December to remember or the usual crap? Find out on this month-long special of Weenies Hope for Snow! We do December snow about as well as DC does sports. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Euro AI ENS. Looks about the same as the EPS. Pretty cold look towards the end of the first week of of Dec. Snow? Not very likely outside of the western highlands, but a positive start to met winter if it verifies.. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: Euro AI ENS. Looks about the same as the EPS. Pretty cold look towards the end of the first week of of Dec. Snow? Not very likely outside of the western highlands, but a positive start to met winter if it verifies.. And the lake effect belts should be in for a fun time with the waters still being pretty warm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 9 minutes ago, Terpeast said: And the lake effect belts should be in for a fun time with the waters still being pretty warm Lay that base down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 33 minutes ago, Terpeast said: And the lake effect belts should be in for a fun time with the waters still being pretty warm Yeah probably some good chasing opportunities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 WB 6Z AI EPS Dec 8. Few hits starting to show up as early as Dec 4. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 The airports average 1-3" of snow for December, so expectations should be in check. It is our fourth snowiest month. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z AI EPS Dec 8. Few hits starting to show up as early as Dec 4. I see +NAO/-PNA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I see +NAO/-PNA Seems like guidance is really struggling with the Pacific pattern in early December. There will be some very cold air somewhere in North America. Not much more is certain yet. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I see +NAO/-PNA I think an amped storm brings us rain during this period. But a 2-4 incher could be in the cards if the timing is right especially for NW zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Really need to stave the expectations. The long range looks decent/temps around climatology. Which aren’t the greatest for snow, ( 12-4 12-5 really spoiled us back in the day). The way things are these days I call that a win, I love Christmas, and I absolutely hate one where I’m wearing a T-shirt and hopefully that’s not the case this year. It can be bone dry and cold and I’d be happier than a pig in shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 For future reference, based on MJO verification over the last 30 days, GEFS is really the one to watch when MJO is medium to high amplitude. And it’s not even competitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: For future reference, based on MJO verification over the last 30 days, GEFS is really the one to watch when MJO is medium to high amplitude. And it’s not even competitive. >> For comparison. >> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 From https://x.com/judah47/status/1992608265507946858 Seems very reasonable. Third week of December looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Just now, frd said: >> For comparison. >> Yeah, gefs is slower and stronger going into 7, but I don’t really pay attention to what happens after that (the purple part) - too far out to have any real skill. But the gefs hollmover shows forcing weakening over the MC and moving east quickly through the pac basin past the dateline over the next week, and then cycle back to 6-7-8 soon after. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Interesting AO forecast. Lots of spread, and not like the last two years. The strat warming( CW ) not influencing the AO, by a lack of coupling. As mentioned later in this post, in 1958 and 1968 they did couple but several weeks later. Giuseppe Petricca @gmrpetricca 47m Today's zonal GPH chart gives us a good example of uncoupled/limited coupling tropo-strato in the forecast. Strong stratospheric anomalies are present in the 10–50 hPa layer (and above - red rectangle), but below 100-200hPa, the situation is different, with limited vertical coupling (blue rectangle). While the stratosphere maintains a persistent positive anomaly pattern, at least until towards the end of the run, these signals do not propagate downward in a way that would typically influence lower-level circulation (for example, look at the orange/red anomalies back at the start of October, where they covered the entire column). In the troposphere, anomalies remain more variable and horizontally confined, indicating that the two atmospheric levels are acting more or less "on their own". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 2 hours ago, frd said: From https://x.com/judah47/status/1992608265507946858 Seems very reasonable. Third week of December looks good. January will deliver guaranteed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said: January will deliver guaranteed December's looking bad according to today's CFS v2 weeklies. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Plenty of cold available on today’s Euro Weeklies from week 2 through 6. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 19 minutes ago, Spartman said: December's looking bad according to today's CFS v2 weeklies. JFC I hope that's wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 ENSO thread is doing last rites for December. In fact they’re doing last rites for here on out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 37 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: ENSO thread is doing last rites for December. In fact they’re doing last rites for here on out. It has become unreadable. The haughtyness is sickening. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: It has become unreadable. The haughtyness is sickening. I mean are they wrong through (at least with December)? We've seen time and time again that when a SER establishes itself it takes ~3 weeks to undo the damage and have a winter weather chance again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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