TS Melissa

[Amped]

There are still too much of a chance eastern track over western Hispanola like the ICON is showing to ignore.   It wouldn't be the first time the Euro has missed a center relocation and shown a track way too far southwest.

Not saying it will happen, just keep it in mind when posting 200kt Hafs A-B runs. They are going to look really bad if this turns into Cat1 Shrederolla

[cptcatz]

7 hours ago, Amped said:

There are still too much of a chance eastern track over western Hispanola like the ICON is showing to ignore.   It wouldn't be the first time the Euro has missed a center relocation and shown a track way too far southwest.

Not saying it will happen, just keep it in mind when posting 200kt Hafs A-B runs. They are going to look really bad if this turns into Cat1 Shrederolla

As I type this it is 06z on Thursday 10/23 and Melissa is a sloppy weak tropical storm with a central pressure of 1002 mb. Let's look back and see what the GFS predicted Melissa would be at this time:

10/22 18z: 997

10/22 12z: 999

10/22 6z: 1003

10/22 00z: 999

10/21 18z: 988

10/21 12z: 981

10/21 6z: 984

10/21 00z: 977

10/20 18z: 976

10/20 12z: 970

lol why we would trust the GFS model right now?

[cptcatz]

Lol what a mess. Just two days ago GFS thought this would be a bonafide category 2 hurricane. 

[hawkeye_wx]

There has been a northeast shift on the models overnight.  The Google DeepMind ensembles have come into much better agreement that Melissa will now get pulled northeastward first before it turns west.  All of yesterday's tracks that went well southwest of Jamaica are gone.  The HAFS models agree with this.

[jconsor]

17 hours ago, cptcatz said:

How close to florida do you think we could see?

Unlikely it gets closer than Andros Island in the Bahamas.  Only way I could see Melissa getting really close to FL is if the day 7 trough/cutoff low misses it and it lingers somewhere from Cuba south into the NW Caribbean, *or* if it dives WSW and gets so far south (e.g. near Nicaragua/Honduras border) that by the time that trough picks it up it ends up near FL while turning NE.  Both are highly unlikely in my view, but the past few KMA runs (not a reliable model) have shown something like one of these two scenarios.

[NorthHillsWx]

Overnight trends are east which probably would reduce the maximum potential intensity 

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Overnight trends are east which probably would reduce the maximum potential intensity 

The hurricane models often overdo intensity by a lot, regardless.

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The hurricane models often overdo intensity by a lot, regardless.

They can but the environment is still exceptionally conducive for RI, and HAFS has been excellent in sniffing out the high end solutions. Milton being a prime example from last season.

[TheDreamTraveler]

I know everyone's forgotten this storm but it's reminding me of hurricane Tomas for some odd reason. Not sure why but I do know it was predicted to become a powerful major hurricane once it entered the Caribbean and people were very bullish on it. It struggled immensely and was still a tropical storm where it was predicted to become a major lol. Definitely one of the worst intensity forecasts I've ever seen from the NHC. Not saying Melissa is going to under perform but we are in the Caribbean 'graveyard' after all. Normally storms that enter the eastern Caribbean struggle to develop at all unless they are well established before entering.

Also NHC's intensity forecasts are a lot better now than compared to 15 years ago but it is still the hardest part to forecast in a hurricane.

[Newman]

Quite a shift east in the past day or so on the spaghetti hurricane guidance. The turn to the west is much shorter duration and Melissa gets pulled north and northeastward much quicker.

[NorthHillsWx]

12 minutes ago, Newman said:

Quite a shift east in the past day or so on the spaghetti hurricane guidance. The turn to the west is much shorter duration and Melissa gets pulled north and northeastward much quicker.

Obviously terrible flooding situation but that would be nonstop land interaction to keep it somewhat in check intensity wise

[Newman]

I'd also want to emphasize that until Melissa starts to vertically stack and become better organized, there may continue to be disagreement in model guidance in the short-term because of their proposed placement of the final organized, stacked circulation. 

[smokeybandit]

Poor Jamaica

[Interstate]

10 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Poor Jamaica

I do not know how it could keep major status let alone hurricane status coming that close to Jamaica.

[GaWx]

43 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I do not know how it could keep major status let alone hurricane status coming that close to Jamaica.

I also wonder about that as the highest mountain on Jamaica is over 7,000 feet up! So, hopefully it won’t although it is likely that the enormous rainfall potential is the biggest threat, regardless.

12Z Icon: weaker with strongest being 992 mb near Haiti per WxBell.

[nycwinter]

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I also wonder about that as the highest mountain on Jamaica is over 7,000 feet up! So, hopefully it won’t although it is likely that the enormous rainfall potential is the biggest threat, regardless.

12Z Icon: weaker with strongest being 992 mb near Haiti per WxBell.

1988 hurricane gilbert center went right down the middle of jamaica from the east all the way to the west and did not lose any strength..

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

1988 hurricane gilbert center went right down the middle of jamaica from the east all the way to the west and did not lose any strength..

that was moving at a decent clip-this storm is forecast to meander near the island for 2-3 days

[olafminesaw]

Land interaction actual may help it to wind up at that approach angle, at least for a while. The island is small enough to not choke off the storm too much unless it gets really close

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, Interstate said:

I do not know how it could keep major status let alone hurricane status coming that close to Jamaica.

I don’t think it would on that track but NHC is showing it for continuity due to the otherwise extremely favorable environment. Track will play the pivotal role here in maximum intensity as all other factors would favor extreme intensification over the hottest water in the basin. 
 

GFS once again weak and east, similar to ICON. Will be some major losers on the model front from this one 

[hawkeye_wx]

HAFS models have jumped northeast again this morning.  Now they hit Jamaica from the east.

[ma blizzard]

12z Euro not joining the NE camp .. really taking off to the SSW of Jamaica through 108 

[hawkeye_wx]

Based on the final recon pass and the visible loop, it appears the center has jogged northwest, and is now west of the NHC forecast.

[hawkeye_wx]

Google DeepMind ensembles have shifted back west and south again.

[BlizzardNole]

2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

1988 hurricane gilbert center went right down the middle of jamaica from the east all the way to the west and did not lose any strength..

That storm was a sicko.  It entered Jamaica with 115 mph sustained and exited at 130.  I couldn't believe what I was seeing on the old TWC tropical updates

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

That storm was a sicko.  It entered Jamaica with 115 mph sustained and exited at 130.  I couldn't believe what I was seeing on the old TWC tropical updates

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

that was moving at a decent clip-this storm is forecast to meander near the island for 2-3 days

Hey Brian,

 I checked the coordinates as Gilbert passed over Jamaica:

 It went from 17.6N, 75.3W to 18.3N, 78.5W over a 12 hour period. Per a lat/long mileage calculator, that’s 216 statute miles, which means a brisk 18 mph. That’s a whopping 6 times faster than the very slow average of 3 mph that Melissa is forecasted to move while adjacent to Jamaica! So, Gilbert held onto its strength while moving right over it at 18 mph. How would Melissa do moving a mere 3 mph but just south of the island? I don’t see how it wouldn’t weaken some, possibly significantly, at some point during that 48 hour period if it is initially at MH strength, even if not immediately due to drier inflow from Jamaica.

[Newman]

12z Google DeepMind

 And 12z Google GenCast

The *current* consensus is to slide it towards Western Jamaica before it turns north

[ValpoVike]

That track would be quite disastrous for Jamaica as it rakes most of the island with the front right quadrant.  Not to mention the huge amount of moisture that will be lifted and squeezed out by the mountains.

[Floydbuster]

 

[Amped]

Jamaica will disrupt the core if it moves directly over it. 20 miles south or north and it may actually help consolidate the core and intensify faster.

Also the eastern part has the highest terrain.