jm1220 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Guess we keep watering. Would be nice to give the sprinklers a break. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 12z Euro AI has almost no rain West of Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Euro east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago The euro ai rain totals are west of 6z at least for parts of long island. Seems to be a sharp cutoff in jersey area though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago LOL CMC This storm is becoming a dud for many areas outside the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: LOL CMC This storm is becoming a dud for many areas outside the coast I would gladly take an inch here, the problem is I don't trust how I get it, either with a last minute miracle wraparound or 120 hours of drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: LOL CMC This storm is becoming a dud for many areas outside the coast Probably not done trending east...went from a storm to a miss back to a storm and now going back to a miss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Probably not done trending east...went from a storm to a miss back to a storm and now going back to a miss With the way things have been i could see it trending back west or way east at this point lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago media's going crazy with it and sunday now looks dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, Brian5671 said: media's going crazy with it and sunday now looks dry Winter is going to be fun 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: LOL CMC This storm is becoming a dud for many areas outside the coast I would consider less than an inch of rain and some gusts maybe over 40 a dud here too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Joke of a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Anyone want to hazard a guess as to how different the 18z NAM will look from its 12z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 49 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Winter is going to be fun So stock up on sedatives and sedatives now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 42 minutes ago, STORMANLI said: So stock up on sedatives and sedatives now? Sorry and tranquilizers. See, needed already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I would consider less than an inch of rain and some gusts maybe over 40 a dud here too. Same here, though that's the likely outcome (or maybe even worse). It is what it is, at least it didn't happen with a snowstorm or hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Sundog said: Anyone want to hazard a guess as to how different the 18z NAM will look from its 12z run? That 6 inch jackpot on the Jersey coast will likely go down to 5.9" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, mob1 said: Same here, though that's the likely outcome (or maybe even worse). It is what it is, at least it didn't happen with a snowstorm or hurricane. Actually a hurricane can scoot out to sea, no thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, mob1 said: That 6 inch jackpot on the Jersey coast will likely go down to 5.9" There is a significant chance that 18z will show almost no precip in PA despite the 4 inch amounts shown there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, Sundog said: Actually a hurricane can scoot out to sea, no thank you To each his own. Either way, the weather has been exceedingly boring for a while now so it kind of sucks that any semblance of excitement the models showed is gone now. Here's to an amazing winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uniblab Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Congrats Great Britain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, mob1 said: To each his own. Either way, the weather has been exceedingly boring for a while now so it kind of sucks that any semblance of excitement the models showed is gone now. Here's to an amazing winter. Ever since I got a rain gauge the biggest event I have recorded is 0.2 inches lol what a jinx 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Sundog said: Ever since I got a rain gauge the biggest event I have recorded is 0.2 inches lol what a jinx We bought a snowblower last year. still in the box 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just another variation on the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern stream storm tracks theme which has been dominant since 2018-2019 with the much faster Pacific Jet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: We bought a snowblower last year. still in the box Literally no market for those since 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago If 00z models are more or less consist with these 12z solutions then we know for almost certain where this is headed. WPC 7 day qpf has shifted precio max to BOS. Still have 1-3” soaking for most of this forum but dubious based on 12z global I would think. These phasing situations are murder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago NJ State of Emergency Office of the Governor | Acting Governor Way Declares State of Emergency Ahead of Dangerous Nor’easter Storm 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Looking at the dry start to October, the guidance had been showing what would be a fairly uncommon event. Perhaps, in retrospect, if rainfall amounts wind up becoming greatly reduced, the lesson is that until one is in the near range (< 3 days out), one should be skeptical of statistical outlier events, even when there is strong model support. The model support was based on the idea of a complex phasing situation, which, itself, is difficult for models to handle in the medium-range and beyond. A scenario concerning slower developing system that grazes the coastal plain (Long Island and eastern New England should still do well) is becoming more probable. We'll see what the later model runs show. For Central Park, here are the maximum one- and two-day rainfall events following a completely dry first week of October, as was the case this year. What still seems more certain is that the development of a drier pattern consistent with the development of an NAO-/AO- following the nor-easter remains on track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Euro east If this were January my fellow snow weenies would be losing it right about now. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Winter is going to be fun Just don’t bother tracking 7 days out, heck wait 24 hours in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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