Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine--Advisory Forthcoming

[Floydbuster]

 

[MJO812]

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 Thanks for posting.

 This NY Post headline is so misleading. If the Fujiwhara Effect is strong enough, that would actually be the best way for the SE to avoid a landfall. Thus, I hope Fujiwhara is strong. The stronger combined storm on those models/ensemble members doing that avoids the US in the vast majority of cases.
 
The NY Post is not a good source for news, regardless. It borders on tabloid.

[Eskimo Joe]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

That is just a silly, clickbait headline.

[dbullsfan]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That is just a silly, clickbait headline.

consider the source, unfortunately people will believe it as truth. 

[GaWx]

18Z Euro: hits near NC/SC border:

[Wannabehippie]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks for posting.

 This NY Post headline is so misleading. If the Fujiwhara Effect is strong enough, that would actually be the best way for the SE to avoid a landfall. Thus, I hope Fujiwhara is strong. The stronger combined storm on those models/ensemble members doing that avoids the US in the vast majority of cases.
 
The NY Post is not a good source for news, regardless. It borders on tabloid.

Borders? It is tabloid. They thrive on page Six stuff.

[stormtracker]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That is just a silly, clickbait headline.

 Headline is so irresponsible and hype casting.  Why even post that here?

[Wannabehippie]

94L isn't going to do anything until whatever circulation that is there, clears Hispaniola.

[BooneWX]

Local western NC talk here: a lot to track and a lot to determine, but if the circulation meanders into SC, it’s another terrible scenario for an area still reeling from Helene. Easterly, upslope flow and a steady fetch of moisture from the Atlantic…not good. We’ve luckily had very dry antecedent conditions but that can change rapidly with plenty of convective activity expected ahead of the circulation. 

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

94L isn't going to do anything until whatever circulation that is there, clears Hispaniola.

 The best bet for the SE to avoid a hit and the potential flooding catastrophe would be if 94L were to move away from there more slowly than the model consensus and let Humberto get to a higher latitude than it. Also, the same would probably be the case if Humberto were to move more quickly. Then hopefully Humberto would pull 94L away.

[Wannabehippie]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The best bet for the SE to avoid a hit and the potential flooding catastrophe would be if 94L were to move away from there more slowly than the model consensus and let Humberto get to a higher latitude than it. Also, the same would probably be the case if Humberto were to move more quickly.

The other would be a Fujiwara effect to pull an Imelda away from the coast.

[GaWx]

19 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

The other would be a Fujiwara effect to pull an Imelda away from the coast.

That’s what I meant when I mentioned those scenarios. It appears the best chance for a Fujiwara to do that is for Humberto to be at a higher latitude than 94L. This is based on viewing 100s of ensemble members from different runs along with operationals.

[GaWx]

Per WxBell (may be different from others like TT): 

-Of the 18Z 30 GEFS/50 EPS members, I count ~25% that bring a lowest SLP of <1000 mb onto the E coast, but I see no lowest SLP <990 mb on the GEFS on land.

-There do appear to be 7 EPS members that are hurricanes/<990 mb hitting.

[WxWatcher007]

I think it’s still worth plenty of caution to look too much into intensity guidance given the lack of a center. We do know there will be a favorable environment window early, followed by likely hostile conditions. But how much that impacts Imelda will depend on how structurally sound any inner core is. 

[WolfStock1]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

18Z Euro: hits near NC/SC border:

Sorry but that's a hilarious picture.   Looks like some kind of stoned cookie monster or something.

[Coach McGuirk]

Both Euro and GFS have a tropical system landfall at SC/NC Monday.  

[Coach McGuirk]

It's noting now but could be huge.  I remember Charlie in 2004 was nothing and came out of nowhere and was a small 155 MPH hurricane at landfall. 

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

It's noting now but could be huge.  I remember Charlie in 2004 was nothing and came out of nowhere and was a small 155 MPH hurricane at landfall. 

 The chances of this being a cat 4 H are very low as of now even with favorable MJO phase 2 being forecasted. The bigger risk as it appears now is the catastrophic flooding risk from a very slow moving storm, even if it were to landfall as just a TS. TS Chantal caused major flooding from record 24 hour rainfall in parts of NC.

[smokeybandit]

57 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

Sorry but that's a hilarious picture.   Looks like some kind of stoned cookie monster or something.

ET phone home?

[WxWatcher007]

35 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The chances of this being a cat 4 H are very low as of now even with favorable MJO phase 2 being forecasted. The bigger risk as it appears now is the catastrophic flooding risk from a very slow moving storm, even if it were to landfall as just a TS. TS Chantal caused major flooding from record 24 hour rainfall in parts of NC.

Speculative at this point but I think anything from a TS to C3 are possible. I agree with the odds of a 4 being very low. I've said this elsewhere but we have to remember that major hurricane strikes along the east coast are actually pretty rare. Since 1990 there have only been three. Andrew '92, Fran '96, and Jeanne '04. Here, there's a window where this will likely intensify, but near the coast future Imelda may have to deal with the effects of southerly shear and dry air being imparted into the circulation. Along with cooler temperatures near the coast. 

That said, the Euro has intensification near landfall, probably because there should be a strong outflow channel to the north. 

Right now there is a robust mid-level circulation apparent on satellite. We really need to see how that translates as it reaches the high SST/OHC environment near the Bahamas tomorrow. 

Given its current appearance and how Humberto was able to more quickly develop and intensify in its environment, I do think it's on the board that this has an impressive appearance tomorrow if shear relents some. 

 

[RU848789]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks for posting.

 This NY Post headline is so misleading. If the Fujiwhara Effect is strong enough, that would actually be the best way for the SE to avoid a landfall. Thus, I hope Fujiwhara is strong. The stronger combined storm on those models/ensemble members doing that avoids the US in the vast majority of cases.
 
The NY Post is not a good source for news, regardless. It borders on tabloid.

borders?  Tabloid would be a step up for that rag.  

[Coach McGuirk]

We have seen tropical storms go from nothing to a cat 4 in a day lately under the right conditions.  I would not be surprised. 

[WxWatcher007]

20 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

We have seen tropical storms go from nothing to a cat 4 in a day lately under the right conditions.  I would not be surprised. 

To overperform it has to have an inner core built pretty quickly this weekend. That’s worth watching for sure. 

The intensification as it’s landfalling is an interesting signal since the environment is not ideal by then. 

[GaWx]

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

12Z UKMET: At hour 120, 993 mb Humberto, which is within only 500 miles ENE of 1000 mb 94L, causes 94L (which had been moving mainly NNW) to then get sucked toward it as 94L then suddenly turns SSE, then ESE, and then ENE to well OTS (near 27N, 72W)

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 21.1N 76.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2025 60 22.2N 76.2W 1006 31
1200UTC 28.09.2025 72 23.5N 76.9W 1006 32
0000UTC 29.09.2025 84 24.1N 77.4W 1004 33
1200UTC 29.09.2025 96 25.9N 78.3W 1004 39
0000UTC 30.09.2025 108 25.8N 77.8W 1002 38
1200UTC 30.09.2025 120 26.4N 78.1W 1000 37
0000UTC 01.10.2025 132 25.4N 77.6W 999 37
1200UTC 01.10.2025 144 25.0N 76.5W 997 43
0000UTC 02.10.2025 156 25.4N 74.8W 995 46
1200UTC 02.10.2025 168 26.9N 72.2W 991 47

——————
So far at 12Z for major operationals

-GFS hits just S of Georgetown, SC, Mon PM (9/29) as a H (with strong support from GEFS, it’s most ominous run by far yet for SE US)
-Icon, UKMET, CMC thanks to Fujiwhara go safely OTS from SE US
-Euro next
-JMA only out to 72 so far (can’t tell yet): edit now out to 192: thanks to Fujiwara, no US landfall as the 2 storms combine

0Z: So far, similar to 12Z with GFS hitting Myrtle Beach while Icon, CMC, and UKMET again all Fujiwara 94L safely OTS

JMA only goes out to 72 at 0Z…so, can’t tell much

Euro is next

—————-

0Z UKMET:

 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 22.5N  76.7W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 28.09.2025   48  22.5N  76.7W     1004            39
    1200UTC 28.09.2025   60  24.8N  76.1W     1003            41
    0000UTC 29.09.2025   72  25.6N  76.6W     1000            42
    1200UTC 29.09.2025   84  26.5N  77.1W      999            40
    0000UTC 30.09.2025   96  27.3N  77.3W      997            43
    1200UTC 30.09.2025  108  27.3N  77.3W      995            43
    0000UTC 01.10.2025  120  27.1N  75.4W      992            44
    1200UTC 01.10.2025  132  27.3N  73.5W      989            44
    0000UTC 02.10.2025  144  28.8N  70.0W      984            52
    1200UTC 02.10.2025  156  30.8N  65.1W      979            69
    0000UTC 03.10.2025  168  34.6N  57.8W      972            76

[NorthHillsWx]

The only good news should this storm stall over the Carolina’s is the very dry antecedent conditions. This has been one of the driest periods in NC since I was born. We have just 0.16” for the month and going back to mid August we have had well under 1/2” for the entire period. That being said tropical rains can and will cause flooding no matter the antecedent conditions but that certainly helps as almost all rivers and watersheds are low 

There is a favorable environment for strengthening through the Bahamas and the way the MLC presents itself this morning I believe the storm will likely take advantage of that. How well formed it gets there will likely be key to future intensity because it appears there will be southwesterly shear at some point in approach and likely some dry air intrusion but a mature strong cyclone can be more tolerant of that. If it slows down north of the NC/SC border and sits over the shelf water from Wilmington to hatteras it will likely weaken because shelf temps are unseasonably cool, in the 70s. It goes without saying intensity will be tricky but a stronger storm over the Bahamas and quicker speed into landfall would likely lead to a stronger storm on the coast. Anything that takes its time organizing or moves slowly into coast likely stays relatively weak. ATM since this is only a few days away I would think a cat 1 hurricane is most likely with a cat 2 being the ceiling if it landfalls. This is not a region that favors cat 3 landfalls and it takes almost a perfect setup to get one. Add in all of the cat 3+ storms ti affect the Carolina’s were mature hurricanes that had been strong for quite awhile before approaching. This system is basically home brew (I know it’s from an African wave but it will not develop until the Bahamas). In other words, there is not a climo precedent for a major hurricane landfall in the Carolina’s from a setup like this with a storm forming this close. 
 

As others have said, rainfall potential is rather high here, again. Given dry conditions as of present it might temper some impacts but 12”+ amounts would be likely if many model solutions verify and that’s… not good 

[GaWx]

0Z Euro much different vs prior Euros

[GaWx]

0Z Euro stalls for 48 hours just offshore SC/GA before turning back WNW into Beaufort, SC and not til Thu night!

[WxWatcher007]

Yikes. That’s a bit of a change. Let’s see what the ensembles say. 

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yikes. That’s a bit of a change. Let’s see what the ensembles say. 

0Z GEFS: 14 of 30 members with SE US landfall with one of those 14 a hurricane