Invest 94L—80% 2 day and 90% seven day odds of development

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

0Z GEFS: 14 of 30 members with SE US landfall with one of those 14 a hurricane

Very interesting stuff. Long way to go…

[GaWx]

24 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Very interesting stuff. Long way to go…

0Z EPS: 29 of 50 hit SE US with ~10-11 as hurricanes

Night night!

[WxWatcher007]

Still feeling our way around solutions. The 06z Euro brings future Imelda onshore with a similar progression to its other prior runs—much faster than what the 00z had.

[olafminesaw]

12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Still feeling our way around solutions. The 06z Euro brings future Imelda onshore with a similar progression to its other prior runs—much faster than what the 00z had.

Overnight ensembles showed more offshore solutions so it will be interesting if the 6z ensembles follow with the OP in showing mostly landfalls

[PackGrad05]

After looking at all the data and the runs, even though they are inconsistent, I still feel the most likely outcome is a slow approach to the SE coast and either making it inland or staying just off-shore, but then slowing down/stallings and dumping a lot of rain...
The big story is going to be the rain/flooding.

[Eskimo Joe]

Man 06z GFS op tries to bury 94L across interior South Carolina. Looks like a potent 850 and 700 mb  jet just pouring subtropical Atlantic moisture into the foot hills.

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Man 06z GFS op tries to bury 94L across interior South Carolina. Looks like a potent 850 and 700 mb  jet just pouring subtropical Atlantic moisture into the foot hills.

Yikes. 6-10" for the areas hit hardest by Helene. Fortunately the GEFS is much further east, so an outlier at this point 

[WxWatcher007]

48 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Overnight ensembles showed more offshore solutions so it will be interesting if the 6z ensembles follow with the OP in showing mostly landfalls

It looks like they follow the op with substantial spread still in landfall point.

[olafminesaw]

I was looking for an Analog yesterday and couldn't find any TS/hurricane that originated near the Bahamas and took a left hook into the Bahamas. Model consensus vs climo, should be a fun showdown.

 

[GaWx]

 Hopefully Humberto overachieving increases the chance that 94L will be more influenced by it in a way that helps the SE US.

[olafminesaw]

Still more rainfall after this across NC

[WxWatcher007]

Low level recon is in there for the first time this morning. Not seeing anything closed right now. 

[NVAwx]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Low level recon is in there for the first time this morning. Not seeing anything closed right now. 

Can you link to the site of the data as it comes in? 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, NVAwx said:

Can you link to the site of the data as it comes in? 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
 

https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi
 

There are other sites out there but I use these when recon is in the air. Expect consistent upper air and low level recon now. 

 

[olafminesaw]

[RU848789]

Greg Postell on TWC was just saying he thought there was enough evidence of a low level closed circulation to name this Imelda and isn't sure why it hasn't been named yet.  Personally, given the wildly varying model runs to this point, I wonder if the NHC simply wants a bit more time to issue actual track/intensity forecasts.  He also mentioned the conflict between anomalously warm waters ahead of Imelda vs. some very dry air aloft forecast to be in its path, making intensity forecasts very difficult - and we already know the impacts of the closed SE low and Humberto with possible Fujiwhara effects are making the track forecast very difficult.  The one thing that seems almost a given is that at least parts of SC/NC/VA, especially near the coast, will get a lot of rain - how far inland that very heavy rain gets and whether we're talking 4-8" of rain (which most can handle) or 10-20" of rain (big flooding) is an open question.  

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Greg Postell on TWC was just saying he thought there was enough evidence of a low level closed circulation to name this Imelda and isn't sure why it hasn't been named yet.  Personally, given the wildly varying model runs to this point, I wonder if the NHC simply wants a bit more time to issue actual track/intensity forecasts.  He also mentioned the conflict between anomalously warm waters ahead of Imelda vs. some very dry air aloft forecast to be in its path, making intensity forecasts very difficult - and we already know the impacts of the closed SE low and Humberto with possible Fujiwhara effects are making the track forecast very difficult.  The one thing that seems almost a given is that at least parts of SC/NC/VA, especially near the coast, will get a lot of rain - how far inland that very heavy rain gets and whether we're talking 4-8" of rain (which most can handle) or 10-20" of rain (big flooding) is an open question.  

When looking at recon earlier I didn't think that we had anything closed, but perhaps that's a function of the possible LLC being so close to the coast that recon can't get there. 

Looking at some of the surface observations, I guess you can close this off. I suppose the northerly wind on the south Cuban coast implies some sort of LLC. I just think it's marginal at best for now. 

[TPAwx]

Early AM Tuesday

[WxWatcher007]

You can see pretty easily why the establishment of an inner core matters here. On the 06z GFS run, the core is weaker and less structurally sound, and as a result it’s easier for dry air to get entrained.  

The result is a slowly intensifying storm (take note) on landfall.

12z has a symmetrical core, which not only makes it stronger but closes off the eye from dry air entrainment.

 

The result is a substantially stronger hurricane that is likely intensifying more robustly on landfall. 

I can’t emphasize enough how important it’ll be to get a well defined LLC so that the models can figure this out. I think an east coast strike is highly likely at this point given the GFS/Euro and their ensembles overwhelmingly overlapping in the general upper level steering features. 

[wthrmn654]

Something I don't think anyone has talked about/ mentioned but this L has been tracking against guidance,  nearly due west since at least 18z yesterday... i mean just look at the actual track versus modeling at 18z with each x. Being 00,06,12z actual placement......  this will likely dictate storms overall intensity the closer to Florida it gets along with all the islands is gotta cross. With 12z runs showing this likely a TS possibly barely a Cat 1 maximum strength wise

[wthrmn654]

It will though be a wet storm so that's basically a given

[eyewall]

I am starting to wonder about an eventual stall as this thing gets near the coast or perhaps a little inland.

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, eyewall said:

I am starting to wonder about an eventual stall as this thing gets near the coast or perhaps a little inland.

I’m very worried. This has high end flood potential written all over it even if it stalls just off the coast

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m very worried. This has high end flood potential written all over it even if it stalls just off the coast

Not to mention the onshore flow. A further south track with that flow over Charleston would be very bad. The Low Country is called that for a reason (I used to live in SC).

[NorthHillsWx]

CMC stalls it, heads east as it interacts with Humberto, then gets left behind and landfalls into NC as an strong intensifying hurricane 

[GaWx]

Other 12Z:

Icon goes OTS again
 

JMA hints at OTS but not sure since only to 72

UKMET goes OTS again like the Icon although it goes further NW than prior runs before going OTS

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 23.3N 76.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2025 48 24.2N 76.7W 1007 33
0000UTC 29.09.2025 60 25.2N 77.4W 1004 34
1200UTC 29.09.2025 72 26.7N 77.8W 1003 38
0000UTC 30.09.2025 84 28.2N 77.6W 1001 36
1200UTC 30.09.2025 96 28.9N 78.5W 996 42
0000UTC 01.10.2025 108 28.7N 77.8W 994 40
1200UTC 01.10.2025 120 28.5N 76.6W 992 38
0000UTC 02.10.2025 132 28.7N 74.3W 991 46
1200UTC 02.10.2025 144 28.9N 72.2W 991 54
0000UTC 03.10.2025 156 28.7N 69.6W 992 63
1200UTC 03.10.2025 168 28.6N 68.4W 995 52