August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Are we taking the over or under for 90 degrees at central park at some point in September. Climo says its roughly 50/50 but I'd think it'd be harder to achieve outside the first week of the month. That's usually when temps really start dropping.

No more 90 degrees, summer is over

it's hard to have a hot day in September when it's been so cool in August (after that one heatwave I mean)

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ECMWF weekly guidance shows almost coast-to-coast cool anomalies in the U.S. The Pacific Northwest and northwestern Canada would be much warmer than normal.

summer is over Don

[anthonymm]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No more 90 degrees, summer is over

it's hard to have a hot day in September when it's been so cool in August (after that one heatwave I mean)

I'm not so sure. Usually when we've gotten these cool stretches in August, September reminds us it's still summer. CPC's also going above for our area in September. I think we probably do get a mini heatwave, maybe 1-2 days of 90 with a bunch of upper 80 days.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

Today I managed to make it all the way through the day without turning on the AC with the good breeze helping. 

Clouds came back like an hour after I wrote that which helped keep the house from getting too warm on the 2nd floor. 

I just wanted to avoid the AC for one day and the clouds were the only way I was going to pull it off. 

totally different out here-had it off since Monday morning.    Wednesday was too cool to even have windows open

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, Wannabehippie said:

Seems early to see such vibrant colors.

 

Sorry, that was last year.  Have to wait 2 months for that

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

No more 90 degrees, summer is over

it's hard to have a hot day in September when it's been so cool in August (after that one heatwave I mean)

There are some conflicting signals. Years with early extreme heat June-early July often have a bout of heat in September. However, years with the kind of cool shots as is occurring at present during August 20-31 typically have lower monthly maximum temperatures in September.

August 20-31 had one or more lows in the 50s: Mean September maximum temperature: 86.9

All other years: Mean September maximum temperature: 89.9.

[jm1220]

Flooding on Fire Island and the Hamptons, and water up to the dunes elsewhere. Jones Beach looks pretty rough. High tide looks to be coinciding with the worst of the waves. We’re lucky this turned out to sea. 

[psv88]

72 today 

[lee59]

Over wash at Jones Beach substantial, up to and underneath the boardwalk

[LoboLeader1]

70 here today.

[WestBabylonWeather]

I regret not going to the beach to check it out but I’m hearing that the water at jones beach almost made it to the parking lot. For those of us that have been to jones beach you know how insane that is 

[ForestHillWx]

7 hours ago, FPizz said:

It was actually good here, but driving north up 287 for work into NY, the color north of route 80 was amazing.  I tried to take pics while driving, this was the best I could get. Going 80 and taking pics not recommended, but lots of yellow, orange and red.

Right through the north part of my hometown.

Many years ago, before they opened that section of 287, we biked up that road and climbed that rock face in cub scouts. 

[JerseyWx]

9 hours ago, FPizz said:

It was actually good here, but driving north up 287 for work into NY, the color north of route 80 was amazing.  I tried to take pics while driving, this was the best I could get. Going 80 and taking pics not recommended, but lots of yellow, orange and red.

"Riverdale Next 3 Exits"  I see that everyday.

But yeah, Fall 2021 was great too.  We had that Indian Summer pattern and a warm October.

[JerseyWx]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

No more 90 degrees, summer is over

it's hard to have a hot day in September when it's been so cool in August (after that one heatwave I mean)

Oh c'mon, you of all people know better.  Summer ain't over for another month 

1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

Right through the north part of my hometown.

Many years ago, before they opened that section of 287, we biked up that road and climbed that rock face in cub scouts. 

Mountainside park is great in that very area too.  You can see NYC from parts of the trails.  Well for that matter, you can see the tip of the skyline coming down the top of the Riverdale hill lol.

[bluewave]

Enjoying the cooler weather here as my area made it to #2 on the all-time 90° day list this year at 15 days.
 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Jan through Dec Top 5 years for 90° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2022	17	0
2	2025	15	132
3	2010	14	0
4	1977	13	100
5	2021	12	0
-	2020	12	2
-	2012	12	3

[donsutherland1]

Central Park has fallen into the 50s for the third time this month. The last August with three or more such days was August 2007 with six days. The three consecutive such days are the first such streak since August 20-22, 2007.

[lee59]

56 degrees here this morning

[IrishRob17]

49.8 for the low, so close to first 40s of the season but 50 goes in the books. KMGJ just up the road did get officially into the 40s.

[doncat]

56° this am... High temps of 69 and 73 for Wed and Thurs with 0.84" rain.

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

No more 90 degrees, summer is over

it's hard to have a hot day in September when it's been so cool in August (after that one heatwave I mean)

It’s possible for JFK since they have had several last 90° days in August during recent years. But the usual warm spots like Newark can always sneak in more 90° days.

Looks like our next warm up in the long range forecasts is for mid-September. 

First/Last Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Minimum	05-19 (2017)		07-20 (2013)		25
Mean	06-16		09-01		76
Maximum	07-12 (2023)		10-02 (2019)		127
2024	06-21 (2024)	91	08-28 (2024)	95	67
2023	07-12 (2023)	90	09-07 (2023)	92	56
2022	05-31 (2022)	94	08-27 (2022)	91	87
2021	05-22 (2021)	94	08-27 (2021)	93	96
2020	07-02 (2020)	90	08-27 (2020)	92	55
2019	06-27 (2019)	91	10-02 (2019)	95	96
2018	06-29 (2018)	91	09-04 (2018)	93	66
2017	05-19 (2017)	92	09-24 (2017)	92	127
2016	06-22 (2016)	92	09-09 (2016)	91	78
2015	06-21 (2015)	90	09-08 (2015)	91	78
2014	06-18 (2014)	91	09-02 (2014)	92	75
2013	06-24 (2013)	90	07-20 (2013)	96	25
2012	06-20 (2012)	94	09-01 (2012)	92	72
2011	06-09 (2011)	93	08-08 (2011)	92	59
2010	05-26 (2010)	91	09-08 (2010)	92	104

 

[jm1220]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s possible for JFK since they have had several last 90° days in August during recent years. But the usual warm spots like Newark can always sneak in more 90° days.

Looks like our next warm up in the long range forecasts is for mid-September. 

First/Last Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Minimum	05-19 (2017)		07-20 (2013)		25
Mean	06-16		09-01		76
Maximum	07-12 (2023)		10-02 (2019)		127
2024	06-21 (2024)	91	08-28 (2024)	95	67
2023	07-12 (2023)	90	09-07 (2023)	92	56
2022	05-31 (2022)	94	08-27 (2022)	91	87
2021	05-22 (2021)	94	08-27 (2021)	93	96
2020	07-02 (2020)	90	08-27 (2020)	92	55
2019	06-27 (2019)	91	10-02 (2019)	95	96
2018	06-29 (2018)	91	09-04 (2018)	93	66
2017	05-19 (2017)	92	09-24 (2017)	92	127
2016	06-22 (2016)	92	09-09 (2016)	91	78
2015	06-21 (2015)	90	09-08 (2015)	91	78
2014	06-18 (2014)	91	09-02 (2014)	92	75
2013	06-24 (2013)	90	07-20 (2013)	96	25
2012	06-20 (2012)	94	09-01 (2012)	92	72
2011	06-09 (2011)	93	08-08 (2011)	92	59
2010	05-26 (2010)	91	09-08 (2010)	92	104

 

I’m thinking where I am there’s another couple 90 degree days left, but we’re beginning our first step down towards autumn. With this cooler pattern some leaves might start changing soon in the Adirondacks/Green/Whites etc. 

[Sundog]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s possible for JFK since they have had several last 90° days in August during recent years. But the usual warm spots like Newark can always sneak in more 90° days.

Looks like our next warm up in the long range forecasts is for mid-September. 

First/Last Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Minimum	05-19 (2017)		07-20 (2013)		25
Mean	06-16		09-01		76
Maximum	07-12 (2023)		10-02 (2019)		127
2024	06-21 (2024)	91	08-28 (2024)	95	67
2023	07-12 (2023)	90	09-07 (2023)	92	56
2022	05-31 (2022)	94	08-27 (2022)	91	87
2021	05-22 (2021)	94	08-27 (2021)	93	96
2020	07-02 (2020)	90	08-27 (2020)	92	55
2019	06-27 (2019)	91	10-02 (2019)	95	96
2018	06-29 (2018)	91	09-04 (2018)	93	66
2017	05-19 (2017)	92	09-24 (2017)	92	127
2016	06-22 (2016)	92	09-09 (2016)	91	78
2015	06-21 (2015)	90	09-08 (2015)	91	78
2014	06-18 (2014)	91	09-02 (2014)	92	75
2013	06-24 (2013)	90	07-20 (2013)	96	25
2012	06-20 (2012)	94	09-01 (2012)	92	72
2011	06-09 (2011)	93	08-08 (2011)	92	59
2010	05-26 (2010)	91	09-08 (2010)	92	104

 

Let's hope that map is wrong. I despise warm Septembers. It's a major mood kill for those who like fall.

[Brian5671]

This is like the August of the old days-cool nights and declining warmth/daylight

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

49.8 for the low, so close to first 40s of the season but 50 goes in the books. KMGJ just up the road did get officially into the 40s.

49.8 is 40s to me.  99.8 is not 100.  

51 here.  

[IrishRob17]

25 minutes ago, FPizz said:

49.8 is 40s to me.  99.8 is not 100.  

51 here.  

99.8 might as well be 120 to me, LOL. Up to 64 now under beautiful clear skies.

[hudsonvalley21]

4 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

99.8 might as well be 120 to me, LOL. Up to 64 now under beautiful clear skies.

51 was the low here. Heavy dew on the grass this morning, definitely a fall feeling in the air. 

[Stormlover74]

16 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

99.8 might as well be 120 to me, LOL. Up to 64 now under beautiful clear skies.

Top 10 day today. Warlock will somehow hit 90

[SACRUS]

 

74 / 48 and out of the muck.  Erin exiting Great weekend coming up, outside some scattered showers Sunday overnight into Monday but that front has been looking drying up on latest forecasts.  Warmer 48 hours Sat/Sun  mainly mid / upper 80s in the hottest spots, perhaps outside chance of 90 in the very hottest on Saturday - not likely.   Trough into the northeast pushes front through late SUn/Mon but now looks mainly dry outside some scattered showers.  Cooler week but suspect none of the daily departures (when not raining) will exceed this weeks cool.  Next shot at rain is mid week Wed/Thu as reinforcing front builds trough.   Ridge builds east with trough into the wc by the 31 and warmer overall beyond there.

 

8/22 - 8/23 :  Great stretch - warmer
8/24 - 8/30 :  Trough east - cooler
8/31 - beyond :  Warmer