July Discobs 2025

[MillvilleWx]

7 hours ago, stormy said:

Where is the rain???????  We are 6 hours into this and I have had 5 drops..........................

Convective season can be extremely frustrating, but especially when you located in the valley. The signal last night was for the front to position itself perpendicular to the Shenandoah with latitudinal positioning between I-66/64. That seemed to be the case for part of the day, but the push earlier this morning oriented the front further south with a greater theta_E tongue positioned into WV. As the day progressed, the front shifted back north, but that was when energy was beginning to move beyond the I-81 corridor and further east, so timing was off. Areas along the BR did get hit with some good storms late-afternoon and evening, but that ended up being too late and the proposed QPF maxima was offset by 50 miles or so. The key to this setup was timing of mid-level perturbations ejecting out of WV in tandem with diurnal destabilization with a tongue of elevated theta_E. The setup happened, but occurred a bit further downstream than what was forecast. WV areas and neighboring AKQ (Wakefield) CWA got hit pretty hard and the shift was noted on the afternoon D1 update that @yoda referenced above with the expansion of the MDT. Warrenton just came in with a FFW, so it was a tough miss for areas that were initially progged to see the greatest QPF. 

I am on night shifts and today is also my birthday. I'm not going to let something like this ruin my day. Forecasting convection is one of the hardest elements to get fully correct. The ingredients were there, but offsetting the positioning of where is typically the strongest bias in getting something "wrong". Hopefully you guys cash down there, but others just to your north and northeast have had lots of chances the past few months. The crappy luck of the draw. I know for one people near Winchester have got to be getting annoyed since they have the most defined hole in total precip past 45 days. Your area isn't far behind. Sorry it missed my man. 

[Interstate]

[nj2va]

2 hours ago, Paleocene said:

everyone in the mid-atl forum should head to maine; now. 72/52; absolute bliss. 

Yikes a wind chill of 72 degrees….brrr!  

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

Convective season can be extremely frustrating, but especially when you located in the valley. The signal last night was for the front to position itself perpendicular to the Shenandoah with latitudinal positioning between I-66/64. That seemed to be the case for part of the day, but the push earlier this morning oriented the front further south with a greater theta_E tongue positioned into WV. As the day progressed, the front shifted back north, but that was when energy was beginning to move beyond the I-81 corridor and further east, so timing was off. Areas along the BR did get hit with some good storms late-afternoon and evening, but that ended up being too late and the proposed QPF maxima was offset by 50 miles or so. The key to this setup was timing of mid-level perturbations ejecting out of WV in tandem with diurnal destabilization with a tongue of elevated theta_E. The setup happened, but occurred a bit further downstream than what was forecast. WV areas and neighboring AKQ (Wakefield) CWA got hit pretty hard and the shift was noted on the afternoon D1 update that @yoda referenced above with the expansion of the MDT. Warrenton just came in with a FFW, so it was a tough miss for areas that were initially progged to see the greatest QPF. 

I am on night shifts and today is also my birthday. I'm not going to let something like this ruin my day. Forecasting convection is one of the hardest elements to get fully correct. The ingredients were there, but offsetting the positioning of where is typically the strongest bias in getting something "wrong". Hopefully you guys cash down there, but others just to your north and northeast have had lots of chances the past few months. The crappy luck of the draw. I know for one people near Winchester have got to be getting annoyed since they have the most defined whole in total precip past 45 days. Your area isn't far behind. Sorry it missed my man. 

Happy Birthday man!!!!

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Convective season can be extremely frustrating, but especially when you located in the valley. The signal last night was for the front to position itself perpendicular to the Shenandoah with latitudinal positioning between I-66/64. That seemed to be the case for part of the day, but the push earlier this morning oriented the front further south with a greater theta_E tongue positioned into WV. As the day progressed, the front shifted back north, but that was when energy was beginning to move beyond the I-81 corridor and further east, so timing was off. Areas along the BR did get hit with some good storms late-afternoon and evening, but that ended up being too late and the proposed QPF maxima was offset by 50 miles or so. The key to this setup was timing of mid-level perturbations ejecting out of WV in tandem with diurnal destabilization with a tongue of elevated theta_E. The setup happened, but occurred a bit further downstream than what was forecast. WV areas and neighboring AKQ (Wakefield) CWA got hit pretty hard and the shift was noted on the afternoon D1 update that @yoda referenced above with the expansion of the MDT. Warrenton just came in with a FFW, so it was a tough miss for areas that were initially progged to see the greatest QPF. 

I am on night shifts and today is also my birthday. I'm not going to let something like this ruin my day. Forecasting convection is one of the hardest elements to get fully correct. The ingredients were there, but offsetting the positioning of where is typically the strongest bias in getting something "wrong". Hopefully you guys cash down there, but others just to your north and northeast have had lots of chances the past few months. The crappy luck of the draw. I know for one people near Winchester have got to be getting annoyed since they have the most defined whole in total precip past 45 days. Your area isn't far behind. Sorry it missed my man. 

Happy Birthday.   Appreciate that detailed write-up; it makes the kick to the nuts easier to accept.

[EastCoast NPZ]

This one was frustrating.   Glad I'm out of here to Vermont for a while.   The DP in the 40s will make me forget about this screwjob.

[MillvilleWx]

32 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Happy Birthday.   Appreciate that detailed write-up; it makes the kick to the nuts easier to accept.

 

29 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

This one was frustrating.   Glad I'm out of here to Vermont for a while.   The DP in the 40s will make me forget about this screwjob.

Thank for the Bday wishes (As well as you @Maestrobjwa!! 

Enjoy Vermont and the amazing period of nice weather in those parts. Those cooler mornings will be bliss. Take it all in! 

[wxdude64]

Just back in, Happy Birthday @MillvilleWx!

Had several rounds of showers and thundershowers. But, much like the past 7-9 days a small amount in the gauge for all the noise and light shows. I've had 2.14" fall since the 4th, but 1.55" of that happened on the 10th and only .32" in last seven days. My dad (in his low 80's) said today he couldn't remember a summer like this where it thundered and lightning for hours every day for over a week with so little to show for it from the sky. 

[KAOS]

 

[dailylurker]

This year has to be a record for cloudy mornings. I was on the swim team for many years as a kid. We had practice every morning. It was never cloudy. 

 

[stormy]

10 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Convective season can be extremely frustrating, but especially when you located in the valley. The signal last night was for the front to position itself perpendicular to the Shenandoah with latitudinal positioning between I-66/64. That seemed to be the case for part of the day, but the push earlier this morning oriented the front further south with a greater theta_E tongue positioned into WV. As the day progressed, the front shifted back north, but that was when energy was beginning to move beyond the I-81 corridor and further east, so timing was off. Areas along the BR did get hit with some good storms late-afternoon and evening, but that ended up being too late and the proposed QPF maxima was offset by 50 miles or so. The key to this setup was timing of mid-level perturbations ejecting out of WV in tandem with diurnal destabilization with a tongue of elevated theta_E. The setup happened, but occurred a bit further downstream than what was forecast. WV areas and neighboring AKQ (Wakefield) CWA got hit pretty hard and the shift was noted on the afternoon D1 update that @yoda referenced above with the expansion of the MDT. Warrenton just came in with a FFW, so it was a tough miss for areas that were initially progged to see the greatest QPF. 

I am on night shifts and today is also my birthday. I'm not going to let something like this ruin my day. Forecasting convection is one of the hardest elements to get fully correct. The ingredients were there, but offsetting the positioning of where is typically the strongest bias in getting something "wrong". Hopefully you guys cash down there, but others just to your north and northeast have had lots of chances the past few months. The crappy luck of the draw. I know for one people near Winchester have got to be getting annoyed since they have the most defined hole in total precip past 45 days. Your area isn't far behind. Sorry it missed my man. 

Happy birthday!

Thanks very much for taking the time to give me a very reasonable explanation!   Your expert analysis is very important to me.  I reached out to you because you were obviously bullish early Friday morning. 

When I don't understand something that repeatedly seems strange, I ask questions. I have repeatedly received only sprinkles for the last 7 days with several Watches.  I have talked to some who are starting to water their gardens.

Some people seem to walk around with a chip on their shoulder, therefore they attack a question: "wheres the rain?".   You are obviously a very intelligent person who understands that I simply asked a very reasonable question.  Thanks again for your expert explanation!

The GFS is bullish for my area late this afternoon. I will hang my hopes on that.

[frd]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

This year has to be a record for cloudy mornings. I was on the swim team for many years as a kid. We had practice every morning. It was never cloudy. 

 

Posted a while back over a period of 90 days cloud cover was indeed above normal. So bascially back a couple months we were running with above average winds, and cloud cover, and that has evolved into higher overnight lows above average and of course dew points very extreme, a relationship I imagine with high overnight lows and more frequent rainfall.  

[dailylurker]

28 minutes ago, frd said:

Posted a while back over a period of 90 days cloud cover was indeed above normal. So bascially back a couple months we were running with above average winds, and cloud cover, and that has evolved into higher overnight lows above average and of course dew points very extreme, a relationship I imagine with high overnight lows and more frequent rainfall.  

Yup. I've completely lost my tomato plants due to hot humid nights. Blight just went nuts. The only plants in my garden that are doing well are my cannabis plants. I'm looking forward to lower dews this week. 

[CAPE]

Getting some decent rain with this batch of showers rolling through this morning.

0.37"

[Mrs.J]

Mr J spent his HS years in SE GA. While loading up the last of stuff to move to the oldest Ms J’s apartment he replies “I thought I moved out of the armpit zone.”

[mappy]

Cloudy. 75/71. Disgusting 

[CAPE]

40 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Getting some decent rain with this batch of showers rolling through this morning.

0.37"

0.40" brings the monthly total to 5.5".

Sunny now.

[mdhokie]

2 hours ago, stormy said:

Happy birthday!

Thanks very much for taking the time to give me a very reasonable explanation!   Your expert analysis is very important to me.  I reached out to you because you were obviously bullish early Friday morning. 

When I don't understand something that repeatedly seems strange, I ask questions. I have repeatedly received only sprinkles for the last 7 days with several Watches.  I have talked to some who are starting to water their gardens.

Some people seem to walk around with a chip on their shoulder, therefore they attack a question: "wheres the rain?".   You are obviously a very intelligent person who understands that I simply asked a very reasonable question.  Thanks again for your expert explanation!

The GFS is bullish for my area late this afternoon. I will hang my hopes on that.

Its hard to judge tone/intent over a message board. I would suggest if you are just looking for a friendly conversation, not to use "???????????" and '.............." when asking a question or making a comment. Maybe instead of "Wheres the rain????????????" it could have been "Hey I noticed the last several days we were forecast to get a ton of rain, but I haven't seen much at all, what do you think is the reason?"

 

Back on topic - Boy has it been wet in Western Maryland. Barely got any swimming/lake time in over the last couple days. Super humid, mostly cloudy and constant rain showers rolling through. Some of which were HEAVY downpours. Talking with some locals and they don't remember a wet stretch like this in quite some time. Making outdoor construction/projects difficult because the ground just never dries out. 

We drove home late last night and it was crazy foggy in certain spots and ran into a pop up rain storm when we arrived back in EC, I kinda felt like Eeyore lol. Looking forward to Monday and a trip to Hershey park!

 

[The Dude]

Happy B-day @MillvilleWx.  Thanks for all of your contributions to the forum.  I have learned a lot from reading your posts!

[stormy]

Flood Watch for the Central Valley from 2 pm thru 10pm. The language of the Watch allows for 1 - 4 inches of rain.  The ICON is the most bullish with .69" thru 0400.

Other factors give a prime window of opportunity for convective elements from 3 - 7 pm.

Most of the activity is progged to skirt to the south of DC. but I wouldn't bet the bank on that.

[wxdude64]

YUCK! Currently 83.6/74.1 with a HI of 91, but might as well be 111 with all the moisture in the air, slaps you in the face as soon as the door to outside is opened. A cloudy/foggy start, but the sun poked out between 11 and noon and allowed temp to hit 85.2 before cloudy to partly cloudy returned.  I'm sandwiched between lines forming right now at 2 pm. Looks like a good solid line is forming from Harrisonburg back SW to Beckley and another broken line from SE of Lexington VA down into the NC mountains towards Boone, all headed E or ESE at the moment. Amazing difference in rainfall across my county in past 10 days. There are places over 12 inches (with almost 6" falling in 2 hours!) and some right at an inch, although Alleghany is not a huge county (but strangely shaped like the state of WV, which borders us). Keeping an eye on the sky, stay safe out there today folks!

[snowfan]

It’s gross outside. I biked the B&A trail and BWI loop and nothing is dry. It’s awful out.

[Jrlg1181]

Nasty cell at work in Charlottesville..  Not getting out of the work vehicle in this...

[stormy]

1 hour ago, wxdude64 said:

YUCK! Currently 83.6/74.1 with a HI of 91, but might as well be 111 with all the moisture in the air, slaps you in the face as soon as the door to outside is opened. A cloudy/foggy start, but the sun poked out between 11 and noon and allowed temp to hit 85.2 before cloudy to partly cloudy returned.  I'm sandwiched between lines forming right now at 2 pm. Looks like a good solid line is forming from Harrisonburg back SW to Beckley and another broken line from SE of Lexington VA down into the NC mountains towards Boone, all headed E or ESE at the moment. Amazing difference in rainfall across my county in past 10 days. There are places over 12 inches (with almost 6" falling in 2 hours!) and some right at an inch, although Alleghany is not a huge county (but strangely shaped like the state of WV, which borders us). Keeping an eye on the sky, stay safe out there today folks!

You open the door to a very interesting commentary on storm movements during the past couple of weeks.   Upper air guidance has been very weak and erratic.  This has encouraged huge dumps of rain on some locations while a couple miles away were barely touched.

Case in point,  last Sunday afternoon a storm materialized along the Blue Ridge on the north side of Waynesboro.  99% of the time, a cell on the Blue Ridge will head towards Charlottesville or northeast to Elkton.  But, this cell back-built to the west and skirted just to my south. I received .14" while locations 1-2 miles to my south received 1 - 3 inches!!

A spring fed stream that flows through my property and drains that watershed jumped up a ft. a few hours later.