July Discobs 2025

[MillvilleWx]

7 hours ago, stormy said:

Where is the rain???????  We are 6 hours into this and I have had 5 drops..........................

Convective season can be extremely frustrating, but especially when you located in the valley. The signal last night was for the front to position itself perpendicular to the Shenandoah with latitudinal positioning between I-66/64. That seemed to be the case for part of the day, but the push earlier this morning oriented the front further south with a greater theta_E tongue positioned into WV. As the day progressed, the front shifted back north, but that was when energy was beginning to move beyond the I-81 corridor and further east, so timing was off. Areas along the BR did get hit with some good storms late-afternoon and evening, but that ended up being too late and the proposed QPF maxima was offset by 50 miles or so. The key to this setup was timing of mid-level perturbations ejecting out of WV in tandem with diurnal destabilization with a tongue of elevated theta_E. The setup happened, but occurred a bit further downstream than what was forecast. WV areas and neighboring AKQ (Wakefield) CWA got hit pretty hard and the shift was noted on the afternoon D1 update that @yoda referenced above with the expansion of the MDT. Warrenton just came in with a FFW, so it was a tough miss for areas that were initially progged to see the greatest QPF. 

I am on night shifts and today is also my birthday. I'm not going to let something like this ruin my day. Forecasting convection is one of the hardest elements to get fully correct. The ingredients were there, but offsetting the positioning of where is typically the strongest bias in getting something "wrong". Hopefully you guys cash down there, but others just to your north and northeast have had lots of chances the past few months. The crappy luck of the draw. I know for one people near Winchester have got to be getting annoyed since they have the most defined hole in total precip past 45 days. Your area isn't far behind. Sorry it missed my man. 

[Interstate]

[nj2va]

2 hours ago, Paleocene said:

everyone in the mid-atl forum should head to maine; now. 72/52; absolute bliss. 

Yikes a wind chill of 72 degrees….brrr!  

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

Convective season can be extremely frustrating, but especially when you located in the valley. The signal last night was for the front to position itself perpendicular to the Shenandoah with latitudinal positioning between I-66/64. That seemed to be the case for part of the day, but the push earlier this morning oriented the front further south with a greater theta_E tongue positioned into WV. As the day progressed, the front shifted back north, but that was when energy was beginning to move beyond the I-81 corridor and further east, so timing was off. Areas along the BR did get hit with some good storms late-afternoon and evening, but that ended up being too late and the proposed QPF maxima was offset by 50 miles or so. The key to this setup was timing of mid-level perturbations ejecting out of WV in tandem with diurnal destabilization with a tongue of elevated theta_E. The setup happened, but occurred a bit further downstream than what was forecast. WV areas and neighboring AKQ (Wakefield) CWA got hit pretty hard and the shift was noted on the afternoon D1 update that @yoda referenced above with the expansion of the MDT. Warrenton just came in with a FFW, so it was a tough miss for areas that were initially progged to see the greatest QPF. 

I am on night shifts and today is also my birthday. I'm not going to let something like this ruin my day. Forecasting convection is one of the hardest elements to get fully correct. The ingredients were there, but offsetting the positioning of where is typically the strongest bias in getting something "wrong". Hopefully you guys cash down there, but others just to your north and northeast have had lots of chances the past few months. The crappy luck of the draw. I know for one people near Winchester have got to be getting annoyed since they have the most defined whole in total precip past 45 days. Your area isn't far behind. Sorry it missed my man. 

Happy Birthday man!!!!

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Convective season can be extremely frustrating, but especially when you located in the valley. The signal last night was for the front to position itself perpendicular to the Shenandoah with latitudinal positioning between I-66/64. That seemed to be the case for part of the day, but the push earlier this morning oriented the front further south with a greater theta_E tongue positioned into WV. As the day progressed, the front shifted back north, but that was when energy was beginning to move beyond the I-81 corridor and further east, so timing was off. Areas along the BR did get hit with some good storms late-afternoon and evening, but that ended up being too late and the proposed QPF maxima was offset by 50 miles or so. The key to this setup was timing of mid-level perturbations ejecting out of WV in tandem with diurnal destabilization with a tongue of elevated theta_E. The setup happened, but occurred a bit further downstream than what was forecast. WV areas and neighboring AKQ (Wakefield) CWA got hit pretty hard and the shift was noted on the afternoon D1 update that @yoda referenced above with the expansion of the MDT. Warrenton just came in with a FFW, so it was a tough miss for areas that were initially progged to see the greatest QPF. 

I am on night shifts and today is also my birthday. I'm not going to let something like this ruin my day. Forecasting convection is one of the hardest elements to get fully correct. The ingredients were there, but offsetting the positioning of where is typically the strongest bias in getting something "wrong". Hopefully you guys cash down there, but others just to your north and northeast have had lots of chances the past few months. The crappy luck of the draw. I know for one people near Winchester have got to be getting annoyed since they have the most defined whole in total precip past 45 days. Your area isn't far behind. Sorry it missed my man. 

Happy Birthday.   Appreciate that detailed write-up; it makes the kick to the nuts easier to accept.

[EastCoast NPZ]

This one was frustrating.   Glad I'm out of here to Vermont for a while.   The DP in the 40s will make me forget about this screwjob.

[MillvilleWx]

32 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Happy Birthday.   Appreciate that detailed write-up; it makes the kick to the nuts easier to accept.

 

29 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

This one was frustrating.   Glad I'm out of here to Vermont for a while.   The DP in the 40s will make me forget about this screwjob.

Thank for the Bday wishes (As well as you @Maestrobjwa!! 

Enjoy Vermont and the amazing period of nice weather in those parts. Those cooler mornings will be bliss. Take it all in! 

[wxdude64]

Just back in, Happy Birthday @MillvilleWx!

Had several rounds of showers and thundershowers. But, much like the past 7-9 days a small amount in the gauge for all the noise and light shows. I've had 2.14" fall since the 4th, but 1.55" of that happened on the 10th and only .32" in last seven days. My dad (in his low 80's) said today he couldn't remember a summer like this where it thundered and lightning for hours every day for over a week with so little to show for it from the sky. 

[KAOS]