North Balti Zen Posted yesterday at 12:14 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:14 PM 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: The party was bound to end. We better enjoy what's left of it this weekend. A lot easier to enjoy summer conditions when things are greened up and not dry as hell going into it... 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted yesterday at 12:34 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:34 PM Just did my morning walk and it's a bit thick out there. First time this year that i can recall where the humidity is on the gross side. Mostly sunny as well after the fog burned off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted yesterday at 12:53 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:53 PM I’m far from confident in this, as there will probably be a narrow corridor of big rainfall models that the models are struggling to place, but there seems to be a trend to place the heavy rain axis more up into northern MD and southern PA. This would reduce the flood threat in and around DC, but it would increase the severe threat. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted yesterday at 01:10 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:10 PM Clearing line moving East quickly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted yesterday at 01:14 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:14 PM Looking for some interesting barometer readings tomorrow in the NE. Coastal storms have been going nuts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted yesterday at 01:28 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:28 PM Well, here we go again, the Northern jet directs a huge plume of smoke from the vast forest fires in Manitoba, Canada Southward into the US. According to the latest modeling the thickest smoke will arrive near DC., NE MD and DE areas between 1:00 PM and 5:00 PM tomorrow afternoon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted yesterday at 02:15 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:15 PM Suns out. Would like some thunder 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted yesterday at 02:22 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:22 PM Sun finally broke thru the fog here! It feels soupy/humid as all get out, blah. Supposed to storm later. I am 0.17" from setting a new monthly rainfall record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted yesterday at 02:23 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:23 PM Solar radiation data for mesonet showing some good spikes on the eastern shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted yesterday at 02:49 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:49 PM Baltimore County dismissing early because of the flood watch!? 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted yesterday at 02:52 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:52 PM 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Baltimore County dismissing early because of the flood watch!? I don't see that on their Twitter page or main school page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted yesterday at 02:52 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:52 PM 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Baltimore County dismissing early because of the flood watch!? huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted yesterday at 02:53 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 02:53 PM Lol 13z HRRR is loltastically aggressive with a sting-jet feature overnight bringing 50-60mph wind gusts from northern VA through DC and southern MD... No I don't see it getting THAT windy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted yesterday at 02:54 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:54 PM 1 minute ago, George BM said: Lol 13z HRRR is loltastically aggressive with a sting-jet feature overnight bringing 50-60+mph wind gusts from northern VA through DC and southern MD... No I don't see it getting THAT windy. Probably not, but LWX did mention the threat in its AFD oking at tonight, as the low slowly pulls away, some showers likely linger on the back side of the low as well. One thing of concern is the 850mb wind field on the back side of the low during the pre-dawn hours Saturday morning. Will have to watch for some sneaky strong wind gusts if there is a heavy enough shower to bring that wind down to the surface. The hi-res guidance has a concerning amount of agreement on some high-end wind gusts around 40 to 50 mph potentially reaching the surface, so it is something I am growing increasingly concerned about. This is something to keep an eye on, given that this would occur during a very sensitive time period, being during the overnight. Should this trend continue, a short-duration Wind Advisory may need to be considered. Perhaps if things are still convective in nature, they could be handled with short-fused convective warnings as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted yesterday at 03:00 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:00 PM 3 minutes ago, George BM said: Lol 13z HRRR is loltastically aggressive with a sting-jet feature overnight bringing 50-60mph wind gusts from northern VA through DC and southern MD... No I don't see it getting THAT windy. NAM looks gust this evening as well. I could see some wind advisories for higher elevations being possible.. Would not be surprised for Piedmont as well. I know models can overdo it many times and what actually gets to the surface can be less. Breezy seems likely - how windy is questionable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted yesterday at 03:07 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 03:07 PM Oh wow. I wasn't paying enough attention to the overnight wind threat. We'll see what happens. Definitely looks to be a windy system for the end of May. Surface low currently looks to be wrapping up a bit just south of the Kentucky, Ohio, West Virginia intersection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted yesterday at 03:15 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:15 PM 22 minutes ago, yoda said: I don't see that on their Twitter page or main school page 21 minutes ago, Interstate said: huh? Someone posted it on a different site that I saw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted yesterday at 03:43 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:43 PM This is my favorite summer weather. Sunny Morning after an overnight rain, not too hot but still muggy enough to be like morning in Borneo. Smells fresh outside. Unfortunately box turtles love it too, and it was carnage on the back roads on my way to Annapolis this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somecallmetim Posted yesterday at 03:58 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:58 PM With the massively shifting precip totals over the last few days, including everything from a near complete miss on the 3k NAM to a proper 4.8 inch NAMming and some big numbers showing for several Euro cycles mid-week, it's yet another reminder of the falsity of "this only happens in with east coast storms in winter" (which I know most of us know). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted yesterday at 04:44 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:44 PM 45 minutes ago, somecallmetim said: With the massively shifting precip totals over the last few days, including everything from a near complete miss on the 3k NAM to a proper 4.8 inch NAMming and some big numbers showing for several Euro cycles mid-week, it's yet another reminder of the falsity of "this only happens in with east coast storms winter" (which I know most of us know). Yep. In the winter, it's do or die and cliff jumping when the models aren't right enough. In the summer, barely anyone notices, and if you do notice, it's just mildly annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted yesterday at 04:53 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:53 PM 2 hours ago, wxdude64 said: Sun finally broke thru the fog here! It feels soupy/humid as all get out, blah. Supposed to storm later. I am 0.17" from setting a new monthly rainfall record. First round of showers just pushed through, about 1/2 way there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted yesterday at 04:58 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:58 PM 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Baltimore County dismissing early because of the flood watch!? If they did, my kid missed the bus lol I received nothing to suggest an early dismissal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted yesterday at 05:09 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:09 PM 1 hour ago, George BM said: Oh wow. I wasn't paying enough attention to the overnight wind threat. We'll see what happens. Definitely looks to be a windy system for the end of May. Surface low currently looks to be wrapping up a bit just south of the Kentucky, Ohio, West Virginia intersection. It’s definitely worth watching. Once the trough axis passes, winds just above the surface shift to northwest, and the speeds rocket up (50+ kt) just above the ground. The question always is whether those speeds can be mixed downward. Some of the guidance shows an additional round of showers after midnight with some very weak low-level instability. Can that get it done? Not sure, but it could. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted yesterday at 06:00 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:00 PM 50 minutes ago, high risk said: It’s definitely worth watching. Once the trough axis passes, winds just above the surface shift to northwest, and the speeds rocket up (50+ kt) just above the ground. The question always is whether those speeds can be mixed downward. Some of the guidance shows an additional round of showers after midnight with some very weak low-level instability. Can that get it done? Not sure, but it could. If the nocturnal inversion kicks in then it's a moot point. But any leftover precipitation could act as a conduit for the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted yesterday at 06:35 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:35 PM Rain arrived early here. Wonder if this initial line will mess with the Orioles decision to move their night game up to a 4:30 start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted yesterday at 08:09 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:09 PM The SPC and NWS are off the wall over atmospherics that the models are wondering, whats all the excitement about??? I'm under a Flash Flood Watch and Tornado Watch. I will receive neither.................... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted yesterday at 08:20 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:20 PM New meso out. 80% chance of a watch, I'd argue it's a tornado watch until 10pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coolio Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago (Radar) Rain clouds passed over me in Annandale, but nary a drop fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago That guy in VA was wrong...the last 2 days have been outstanding basketball weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Shit is brewing north of Richmond. It could be a stormy night imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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