May Discobs 2025

[North Balti Zen]

1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

The party was bound to end.  We better enjoy what's left of it this weekend.

A lot easier to enjoy summer conditions when things are greened up and not dry as hell going into it...

[aldie 22]

Just did my morning walk and it's a bit thick out there. First time this year that i can recall where the humidity is on the gross side. Mostly sunny as well after the fog burned off

[high risk]

I’m far from confident in this, as there will probably be a narrow corridor of big rainfall models that the models are struggling to place, but there seems to be a trend to place the heavy rain axis more up into northern MD and southern PA.  This would reduce the flood threat in and around DC, but it would increase the severe threat. 

[frd]

Clearing line moving East quickly

[frd]

Looking for some interesting barometer readings tomorrow in the NE. Coastal storms have been going nuts. 

 

[frd]

 

 

Well, here we go again, the Northern jet directs a huge plume of smoke from the vast forest fires in Manitoba, Canada Southward into the US.

According to the latest modeling the thickest smoke will arrive near DC., NE MD and DE areas between 1:00 PM and 5:00 PM tomorrow afternoon. 

 

 

 

[mappy]

Suns out. Would like some thunder 

[wxdude64]

Sun finally broke thru the fog here! It feels soupy/humid as all get out, blah. Supposed to storm later. I am 0.17" from setting a new monthly rainfall record. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Solar radiation data for mesonet showing some good spikes on the eastern shore. 

[WxUSAF]

Baltimore County dismissing early because of the flood watch!?

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Baltimore County dismissing early because of the flood watch!?

I don't see that on their Twitter page or main school page

[Interstate]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Baltimore County dismissing early because of the flood watch!?

huh?

[George BM]

Lol 13z HRRR is loltastically aggressive with a sting-jet feature overnight bringing 50-60mph wind gusts from northern VA through DC and southern MD...

No I don't see it getting THAT windy. 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, George BM said:

Lol 13z HRRR is loltastically aggressive with a sting-jet feature overnight bringing 50-60+mph wind gusts from northern VA through DC and southern MD... No I don't see it getting THAT windy. 

Probably not, but LWX did mention the threat in its AFD 

oking at tonight, as the low slowly pulls away, some showers
likely linger on the back side of the low as well. One thing of
concern is the 850mb wind field on the back side of the low
during the pre-dawn hours Saturday morning. Will have to watch
for some sneaky strong wind gusts if there is a heavy enough
shower to bring that wind down to the surface. The hi-res
guidance has a concerning amount of agreement on some high-end
wind gusts around 40 to 50 mph potentially reaching the surface,
so it is something I am growing increasingly concerned about. This
is something to keep an eye on, given that this would occur
during a very sensitive time period, being during the overnight.
Should this trend continue, a short-duration Wind Advisory may
need to be considered. Perhaps if things are still convective in
nature, they could be handled with short-fused convective
warnings as well.

[midatlanticweather]

3 minutes ago, George BM said:

Lol 13z HRRR is loltastically aggressive with a sting-jet feature overnight bringing 50-60mph wind gusts from northern VA through DC and southern MD...

No I don't see it getting THAT windy. 

NAM looks gust this evening as well. I could see some wind advisories for higher elevations being possible.. Would not be surprised for Piedmont as well.

 

I know models can overdo it many times and what actually gets to the surface can be less. Breezy seems likely - how windy is questionable. 

 

 

 

[George BM]

Oh wow. I wasn't paying enough attention to the overnight wind threat. We'll see what happens. Definitely looks to be a windy system for the end of May. Surface low currently looks to be wrapping up a bit just south of the Kentucky, Ohio, West Virginia intersection.

[WxUSAF]

22 minutes ago, yoda said:

I don't see that on their Twitter page or main school page

 

21 minutes ago, Interstate said:

huh?

Someone posted it on a different site that I saw 

[IronTy]

This is my favorite summer weather.  Sunny Morning after an overnight rain, not too hot but still muggy enough to be like morning in Borneo.   Smells fresh outside.  Unfortunately box turtles love it too, and it was carnage on the back roads on my way to Annapolis this morning.  

[somecallmetim]

With the massively shifting precip totals over the last few days, including everything from a near complete miss on the 3k NAM to a proper 4.8 inch NAMming and some big numbers showing for several Euro cycles mid-week, it's yet another reminder of the falsity of "this only happens in with east coast storms in winter" (which I know most of us know). 

[Paleocene]

45 minutes ago, somecallmetim said:

With the massively shifting precip totals over the last few days, including everything from a near complete miss on the 3k NAM to a proper 4.8 inch NAMming and some big numbers showing for several Euro cycles mid-week, it's yet another reminder of the falsity of "this only happens in with east coast storms winter" (which I know most of us know). 

Yep. In the winter, it's do or die and cliff jumping when the models aren't right enough. In the summer, barely anyone notices, and if you do notice, it's just mildly annoying.

[wxdude64]

2 hours ago, wxdude64 said:

Sun finally broke thru the fog here! It feels soupy/humid as all get out, blah. Supposed to storm later. I am 0.17" from setting a new monthly rainfall record. 

First round of showers just pushed through, about 1/2 way there....

[mappy]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Baltimore County dismissing early because of the flood watch!?

If they did, my kid missed the bus lol

I received nothing to suggest an early dismissal

[high risk]

1 hour ago, George BM said:

Oh wow. I wasn't paying enough attention to the overnight wind threat. We'll see what happens. Definitely looks to be a windy system for the end of May. Surface low currently looks to be wrapping up a bit just south of the Kentucky, Ohio, West Virginia intersection.

It’s definitely worth watching.  Once the trough axis passes, winds just above the surface shift to northwest, and the speeds rocket up (50+ kt) just above the ground. The question always is whether those speeds can be mixed downward.  Some of the guidance shows an additional round of showers after midnight with some very weak low-level instability.  Can that get it done?   Not sure, but it could. 

[Eskimo Joe]

50 minutes ago, high risk said:

It’s definitely worth watching.  Once the trough axis passes, winds just above the surface shift to northwest, and the speeds rocket up (50+ kt) just above the ground. The question always is whether those speeds can be mixed downward.  Some of the guidance shows an additional round of showers after midnight with some very weak low-level instability.  Can that get it done?   Not sure, but it could. 

If the nocturnal inversion kicks in then it's a moot point. But any leftover precipitation could act as a conduit for the wind.

[WVclimo]

Rain arrived early here.  Wonder if this initial line will mess with the Orioles decision to move their night game up to a 4:30 start time.

[stormy]

The SPC and NWS  are off the wall over atmospherics that the models are wondering, whats all the excitement about???

I'm under a Flash Flood Watch and Tornado Watch.  I will receive neither....................

 

[Eskimo Joe]

New meso out. 80% chance of a watch, I'd argue it's a tornado watch until 10pm.

[coolio]

(Radar) Rain clouds passed over me in Annandale, but nary a drop fell. 

[87storms]

That guy in VA was wrong...the last 2 days have been outstanding basketball weather.

[dailylurker]

Shit is brewing north of Richmond. It could be a stormy night imby.