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Temperatures soared into the 80s across the region today. New York City's high temperature was 84°.

Tomorrow will be another unseasonably warm day. Highs tomorrow will likely reach the lower 80s in New York City and mid 80s in the warmest spots. Afternoon or evening thunderstorms are possible as a cool front drifts across the region.

Behind the front, it will turn somewhat cooler on Sunday. A wet pattern is likely Sunday through Wednesday. A significant rainfall is possible, but there remain large differences among the computer models. The European Model is most aggressive in showing 5" or more rainfall. An early estimate of a general 1"-3" total with locally higher amounts during the Sunday-Wednesday period looks reasonable.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around April 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was -4.65 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.977 today.

 

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70 / 61 warm southerly and more humid flow continues as the cut low spins to our west.  Dual ULL SW and into the Mid west looks like eyes on the 500 MB chart today. Scattered showers and storms later this PM and otherwise warm/humid with this flow mid - upper 80s - think the warm shots will be shy of 90 but could be close with enough sun.  Sun - Fri looks unsettled with Monday /Tue the wettest days as the ULL heads east and a more E/NE onshore flow cools it down.  Perhaps a break mid week on Wed before trough moves through THu/Fri and bring more clouds and rain.  6 day totals 2 - 4 inches with some spots higher.  5/ 9 and into mid month looks near normal and drier.  No exceptional temp swings either way currently forecast through the 15th.

 

GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 94 (2018)
NYC: 92 (2018)
LGA: 93 (2018)
JFK: 85 (2001)


Lows:

EWR: 39 (2005)
NYC: 33 (1874)
LGA: 40 (1957)
JFK: 40 (1966)

Historical:

1978 - Persistent thunderstorms caused widespread flooding in southeastern Louisiana and extreme southeastern Mississippi. Rainfall totals of ten to thirteen and a half inches were reported around New Orleans causing the worst flooding in thirty years. The water depth reached three to four feet in several hundred homes, and total property damage was estimated at one hundred million dollars. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Softball size hail was reported at Center Point TX, and a tornado caused three million dollars damage near Satanta KS. Heavy snow blanketed the foothills of eastern Colorado, with 18 inches reported at Divide. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms brought much needed rains to the drought- stricken central U.S. Evening thunderstorms produced large hail in North Carolina. Baseball size hail was reported west of Mooresville NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Southern and Central Plains Region. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 72 mph at Graford TX, and baseball size hail was reported at Graham TX and Lake Kemp TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A stubborn late season storm slowly crawled across southern Colorado the first three days of the month producing heavy snow from the San Juan Mountains to the southeast plains. The storm produced up to three feet of snow in the higher elevations of southern Colorado, and 18 to 22 inches of snow along the eastern slopes of the Central Mountains of New Mexico. Pueblo CO reported a record 10.6 inches of snow for the month as a result of the storm, and a record total for the winter season of 69.6 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1999 - On May 3, 1999, an unusual confluence of atmospheric conditions in Oklahoma spawned dozens of tornadoes that swept across the state in an hours-long parade of destruction. Thousands of homes were damaged or destroyed, and 19 counties became disaster areas. The worst toll was in human lives: 44 dead, including three children. Hundreds more were injured.(http://newsok.com/may3)

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