October 2024

[Uniblab]

2 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

Hmm.  I’d see a Dr.  

LOL !

[Allsnow]

80 haha 

[Allsnow]

Euro bone dry out until 11/2 

[Allsnow]

 

[MANDA]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro bone dry out until 11/2 

Just amazing persistence on the dry pattern continuing. 

Even if there are some very light totals here and there with various frontal passages the message is that the dry pattern continues for now.

[bluewave]

This may be the first time we had two separate 590+DM ridge events in late October with the next big warm up next week.

 

[Big Jims Videos]

Spent the day at a Pinelands cranberry farm - these folks REALLY need water as they're right in the middle of the harvest. 

[bluewave]

Newark only needs 3 more days for the new longest dry streak record.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation < .01 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	26	1949-06-24
2	25	1939-11-30
3	24	1995-09-08
-	24	1980-02-15
-	24	1963-10-27
-	24	1959-09-27
-	24	1942-05-05
4	23	2024-10-22
-	23	1991-11-09

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This may be the first time we had two separate 590+DM ridge events in late October with the next big warm up next week.

 

Obviously November to be determined but the seasonal forecasts that had a cold and wet fall with lots of storminess are a real huge bust to this point

[MANDA]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This may be the first time we had two separate 590+DM ridge events in late October with the next big warm up next week.

 

Absolutely disgusting.

[SnoSki14]

Foliage is strong but everything is bone dry so the leaves just look worn out. 

And it feels like the SW out there. Going from such wet conditions to setting a dryness record is something else

[Allsnow]

Definitely at foliage peak around here currently 

 

Central Park should be soon as it looked close when I was there on Wednesday 

[forkyfork]

love going for a walk and getting dust in my eyes

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Obviously November to be determined but the seasonal forecasts that had a cold and wet fall with lots of storminess are a real huge bust to this point

The longer that marine heatwave near Japan kept going you knew that it was only a matter of time before a big +EPO pattern emerged.

[rclab]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

love going for a walk and getting dust in my eyes

Best to stay by the stream under the bridge …… at least while it’s still flowing. As always ….

 

[Allsnow]

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Obviously November to be determined but the seasonal forecasts that had a cold and wet fall with lots of storminess are a real huge bust to this point

The EC hurricane season was a complete bust. Several called (euro seasonal) for a wet northeast with tropical remnants. It’s been completely dry here since August 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Obviously November to be determined but the seasonal forecasts that had a cold and wet fall with lots of storminess are a real huge bust to this point

Yeah literally the complete opposite.   October is going to have a huge positive temp departure

[donsutherland1]

It will turn cooler tomorrow with the mercury being confined to the 60s. A shortlived but fairly sharp cool shot is likely Sunday into Monday before it warms up quickly early next week.

Out West, yet another round of near-record and record heat is affecting Phoenix and Tucson. The heat will persist through Sunday. Tucson could see its latest 100° temperature on record.

Through today, New York City has seen just a trace of rainfall for October. The old record low figure through October 23 was 0.02" in 1947. At Philadelphia, rainfall has been 0.00". The old record was a trace during 1886. Further, today is Philadelphia's 25th consecutive day with no measurable precipitation (tied for the 4th longest dry stretch). The record streak of 29 days set during October 11-November 8, 1874 will likely be challenged or broken.

Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal through October. The ECMWF ensembles, along with the experimental AIFS and FuXi AI versions continue to show very little precipitation. As a result, October monthly and all-time monthly record low precipitation amounts will likely be approached or broken in parts of the region.

Select October and Monthly Record Low Precipitation Amounts:

Allentown:
October: 0.15", 1963
Monthly: 0.09", May 1964
Period of Record: January 1912-Present

New York City:
October: 0.14", 1963
Monthly: 0.02", June 1949
Period of Record: January 1869-Present

Newark:
October: 0.21", 1963
Monthly: 0.07", June 1949
Period of Record: January 1893-Present

Philadelphia:
October: 0.09", 1924 and 1963
Monthly: 0.09:, October 1924 and October 1963
Period of Record: November 1871-Pesent

Trenton:
October: 0.05", 1963
Monthly: 0.05", October 1963
Period of Record: September 1865-Present

Wilmington, DE:
October: 0.05", 1924
Monthly: 0.05", October 1924
Period of Record: January 1894-Present

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was +11.86 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +4.795 today. The preliminary figure exceeds the October monthly record of +4.521 that was set just yesterday. It is also the highest autumn value on record. The old autumn record of +4.544 was set on November 2, 1978.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.0° (2.1° above normal).

 

[bluewave]

Strong +EPO patterns can be very dry this time of year like we also saw back in 1963.

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

What and when is the longest the NYC area has went without rain?

and when was the last time it lasted for this duration? 

[Roger Smith]

I posted a list of longest NYC dry spells yesterday, now tied 10th longest: 

Rank _ Year ___ Days ___ Duration __________ 

_01 ___ 1924 ___ 36 ___ Oct 9 to Nov 13 _____ 

_02 ___ 1941 ___ 28 ___ Sep 5 to Oct 2 ______ 

t03 ___ 1884 ___ 27 ___ Sep 1 to 27 __________

t03 ___ 1910 ____27 ___ Sep 10 to Oct 6 _____

t05 ___ 1939 ___ 26 ___ Nov 6 to Dec 1 _____ 

t05 ___ 1973 ___ 26 ___ Oct 3 to 28 _________ 

t05 ___ 2001 ___ 26 ___ Apr 22 to May 17 ___ 

t08 ___ 1942 ___ 25 ___ Apr 11 to May 5 ____ 

t08 ___ 1968 ___ 25 ___ Feb 4 to 28 _________

t 10 ___ 1922 ___ 24 ___ Sep 13 to Oct 6 _____

t 10 ___ 1980 ___ 24 ___ Jan 23 to Feb 15 ___ 

t 10 ___ 1963 ___ 24 ___ Oct 4 to 27 _________

t 10 ___ 1995 ___ 24 ___ Aug 7 to 30 _________

t_10 ___ 2024 ___ 24 ___ Sep 30 to Oct 23 ___

 

It will only take five additional days for Oct 2024 to reach second place behind 36-day 1924. 

1973 dry spell was followed by a record rainfall on Oct 29, 1973. 

1963 dry spell was part of record dry October (0.14"). 

[WestBabylonWeather]

The trees have to be struggling. 

[lee59]

Almost the entire U.S. has tranquil weather. Eventually it will change, maybe just in time for the snow enthusiast.

[SRRTA22]

Isn't this what you love? @forkyfork  now we're REALLY gonna torch into December with these mega ridges. 

 

[NorthShoreWx]

I'd like to buy a cloud.

[psv88]

75 today. Groundhog Day

[IrishRob17]

Woke up to the sound of pouring rain (said in a terrible Sebastian Bach voice). Well pouring is relative these days and I was confused for a bit trying to figure out what that sound was since my windows are wide open...anyway...a total of .02 thru the tipper bringing my monthly total to .14. 

[BxEngine]

Lol what a shitty way to break the streak. Not enough to even lessen the brush fire chances in most areas.

[dmillz25]

Just enough to wet the ground here