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Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th


Typhoon Tip
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2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Too bad. Wolfie was really howling the south trends would rage on…

I was kind of more just busting chops.  But it looked to me kind of like the late 2/13 idea where it corrects at go time.  
 

And To be completely honest…being we’re in April now, it’s not bothering me as much. Let the northern guys have it.  If it’s was a month ago..I’d be upset inside to be missing out.

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1 minute ago, mreaves said:

Bennington and Windham counties are ALY territory so I don't know if that is the actual BTV forecast or they pilfered it from ALY.

Of course I could just look it up.

Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast

BTV's map is more recent.

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45 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

BOX not impressed. 
 

EB5E4CC8-C4D0-45BA-A0DE-BEC050886AEF.jpeg.dc0c3b71ba1651908ff159677e14b977.jpeg


Burlington more bullish.

5E2E6895-3512-40D4-8A2E-BAE7F580A6AA.jpeg.6f6a5e24f7adf558614c256c04c905d0.jpeg

BOX has the right idea. Maybe a tad light along the border but not by more than a couple of inches. I see they’ve learned their lesson from all the bullish calls this year in marginal situations.

 

Anybody south of a ALY-MHT-PSM line expecting more than an inch or so of snow is going to be disappointed. It’s April. The airmass is decent for this time of the year but needs to be better for SNE

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Man what a pelting the NAM is over a lot of MA. Wish we could keep that mid-level warm front south longer but it doesn’t seem to want to happen except on a few rogue model runs. 
 

Western Maine is going to get crushed. Doesn’t really seem to matter the exact solution, they are getting 18-30” every run. Some a little close to 30 and others closer to 18 but always crushed. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You might get two 20-burger storms inside of 2 weeks after the equinox. Not bad. 

Only 1960-61 (NNJ) and 2016-17 have had a pair of 20s.  Already notched our biggest March storm, would need to top the 18.5" of 4-5/07 to crack April as well.

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https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

The probabilistic data has become increasingly concerning across
Rutland, with ensemble forecasts depicting a near 100% chance of
wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. The forecast soundings indicate the
inversion layer just under summit levels with almost due east flow
that 65 to 75 knots at the top of the inversion layer. The GFS
isobars indicate the potential for significant wave breaking
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night in Rutland County and
eastern Addison County. But even outside the core of the upper jet,
the potential for winds to mix across eastern Vermont and
through the Adirondacks has also increased, warranting a Wind
Advisory for a larger part of the region. If there`s any
consolation, this comes before much of the wintry weather.
These winds could produce downed trees and power lines across
the region and produce power outages well before wintry weather
takes place.
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