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Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th


Typhoon Tip
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Significant Miller B Nor'easter potential is signaled across Apr 3rd-4th ...

A chilly 850 mb anomaly is in position over SE Canada  ...infiltrated throughout the eastern GL and NE England regions, prior to a strong -NAO maxing over the western limb of the domain.

image.thumb.png.faa5d833ac8693335c903b8d55a83df1.png

This aspect is situated while there is an undercutting trough of significant amplitude. Any kind of emergent trough is highly statistically correlated with this particular kind of -NAO expression, but below we see what really amounts to a phenomenally exquisite expression of that.  Given to the high correlation,  notwithstanding the "stable look" to this synoptic evolution ... confidence is quite high for at least the general set up.

image.thumb.png.ed75513f0ee8d8aef50c7166361d8a97.png

Anomalously high baroclinic instability in situ despite the lateness of the date/spring season.  As the above mid and upper level events unfold over top that lower level temperature gradient ( see the 850 mb charts from the operational Euro/GFS/GGEM further above) ...  strong cyclogenesis is well within the realm of possibilities, and the only limitation on this as far as I can see given these rather elegantly, yet glaringly obvious precursor metrics is the fact that this above is about 144 to 156 hours away.  

Unfortunately ... confidence is only very high for an event. What that event's particulars will mean as far as specific impacts is still pending.  But sufficed it is to say ...this is a classic leading layout for late season snow impact.   What is also interesting about this - from a personal anecdotal/experience perspective, these spring storms tend to actually be modeled more marginal/warmer than this, at this sort of time range - only to tick colder as the time nears to a 'blue timber bender' storm.  This already has the look from all sources, and has been a recurrent theme over the past week. Dynamic height falls and just wholesale evolution of common winter metrics that are involved, snow would be a slam dunk.  It's worth it to follow this ...lest the new April thread has a 100 pages by the 5th of the month...

I also am aware that interest in winter -related subject matter may be diminishing at this point. Seasonal awareness, along with just issue fatigue for having been abused so mercilessly over the last 4 months ( LOL )... but it is what it.  It is noted that the 00z Euro CCB's the hell out of interior and eastern SNE out of this ordeal.  It is also something that we haven't seen much of in recent years, a slower moving event.

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Significant Miller B Nor'easter potential is signaled across Apr 3rd-4th ...

A chilly 850 mb anomaly is in position over SE Canada  ...infiltrated through the eastern GL and NE England regions, prior to a strong -NAO maxing over the western limb of the domain.

image.thumb.png.faa5d833ac8693335c903b8d55a83df1.png

This aspect is situated while there is an undercutting trough of significant amplitude. Any kind of emergent trough is highly statistically correlated with this particular kind of -NAO expression, but below we see what really amounts to an phenomenally exquisite expression of that.  Given to the high correlation,  notwithstanding the "stable look" to this synoptic evolution ... confidence is quite high for at least the general set up.

image.thumb.png.ed75513f0ee8d8aef50c7166361d8a97.png

Anomalously high baroclinic instability in situ despite the lateness of the date/spring season.  As the above mid and upper level events unfold over top that lower level temperature gradient ( see the 850 mb charts from the operational Euro/GFS/GGEM further above) ...  strong cyclogenesis is well within the realm of possibilities, and the only limitation on this as far as I can see given these rather elegantly, yet glaringly obvious precursor metrics is the fact that this above is about 144 to 156 hours away.  

Unfortunately ... confidence is only very high for an event. What that event's particulars will mean as far as specific impacts is still pending.  But sufficed it is to say ...this is a classic leading layout for late season snow impact.   What is also interesting about this - from a personal anecdotal/experience perspective, these spring storms tend to actually be modeled more marginal/warmer than this, at this sort of time range - only to tick colder as the time nears to a 'blue timber bender' storm.  This already has a look. Dynamics height falls and just wholesale evolution of common winter metrics that are involved, snow would be a slam dunk.  It's worth it to follow this ...lest the new April thread has a 100 pages by the 5th of the month...

I also am aware that interest in winter is both diminishing at this point, for seasonal awareness and probably just issue fatigue for having been abused so mercilessly over the last 4 months ( LOL )... but it is what it.

 

 

 

 

Unfortunately yes, This has huge negative implications up here verbatim if models end up correct, The grid would take another beating on a statewide level this go round.

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Just now, dendrite said:

It’s so weird seeing the gfs with nukes every run and not a strung out wave 200 miles offshore. 

Hasn't wavered very much for several cycles now, If anything, Its ticking colder for areas into SNE.

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