metagraphica Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Well the NAM is one way to get a blue bomb. 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That run is hilarious. Congrats GON Lock it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I actually don't have problem with it. Blues have odd behaviors - difficult to pin point that sort of thing. It's probably more of an homage to general possibility ...less 'where' exactly that happens. In fact, I can imagine the cackles and ridicule over the NAM this and that ... all the while missing that point. We're still technically reeling off that pretty crazy late season -EPO last week. It's modulated(ing) positive, but the loading takes time to extinguish - at this time of year, these indexes sometimes reflect more so in the mid level thermal complexion. If we look at that 850s mb, it doens't appear like there's warm problem to this thing being a kind of red flag - Although heh... anyone that things this week's been warm at the surface is probably selling snow to Eskimo. I'm just saying ... that's why spring blue bombs happen. Yeah it's not an isothermal look on the NAM....it's a decent lapse rate from the surface to 850. IF you actually verify that, then latent cooling is going to take the sfc to near-freezing fairly easily if you have any sort of heavy rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 It did it along the deformation axis. Probakt the only way to get something noteworthy outside of a sloppy inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Crazy how wet we have been this winter but finished with such low snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Crazy how wet we have been this winter but finished with such low snowfall It sucks. Most sites have set the record for 365 day rainfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Oh nice. Colder rain. NAM can eff itself right there with that BS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 3k gets me to avg on the season. Record long mud season. LFG 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 2 hours ago, dendrite said: So what’s the difference between wxbell’s kuchie and everyone else’s other than JB’s shrunken roid raged weenie ? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 48 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's close ( all hating and despising aside...) re April 3rd-ish Henry's chart above is remarkably consistent, as well ..shared with only irrelevant differences between the EPS/GEFS/GEPS ensemble means. In all --> a deep coupled response to that western limb -NAO you see over the D. Straight, should evolve nearby our lat/lon - that is the teleconnector incarnate. That's just a 101 interpretation that cannot really be argued. The problems with it are obviously A... the lateness and climate but excusing that obviousness for moment ( we've have blizzards in early April before, anyway - ) ...the heights in the west and how they transiently balance against the heights between the GOM and off the SE U.S. coast, are preventative. The GEFs mean for dailies is actually a very good fit on the 06z, taking a strong primary up the ST Seaway to about Watertown NY ..then, forcing a secondary E of PWM ... because it compromises the -NAO forcing a storm S, while also negotiating those heigher heights underneath/foundation of all that scaffolding down in the deep S/SE. It can change... a little more western ridging would help. But, I also suspect the entire 35N band around the entire hemisphere/planet on both sides of the Equator, being some 3 to 7 dm higher than they were 50 years ago ... would continue to impose resistance even if those mid latitude features became better aligned. The flow would compress, not "yield" in that sense... and compression speeds up the flow - it's basically just that the lower latitudes are destructively interfering. Complex... For now, we need the Pac --> N/A flow structure not be going into a -PNA mode, while these other inhibitors are going on, before we can be more confident in a finale bomb. I will say though that the 2nd week of April, the seasonal 'flash' is now showing up on the guidance across the board. It's probable any 1st week system would be the season's mortality gasp in the models. Atlantic optimal, pacific suboptimal, especially considering CC decrease in baroclinicity. Accurate summary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: 3k gets me to avg on the season. Record long mud season. LFG You seem confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Reggie ain't biting for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Reggie and Icon are a little east for the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You seem confused. I’ve reached a point of resignation. I’m replacing my chooks with ducks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 3 hours ago, dendrite said: CAR is at 82” Which is 24.5" BN thru 3/26. I'm currently 3.1" ahead of them, which is unusual. In 2000-01 we finished 5.0" ahead thanks to 55.5" in March. Ten years later we squeaked ahead by 0.2" after the 15.1" dump on April Fool's day. The 26-winter difference leaves my place averaging 33" behind CAR. Edit: Most of the above clowns would be quite frustrating here if they verified ("slim chance" is understatement). Seeing 20s and 30s barely 100 miles to the SW while we might reach 3" - even in April that would hurt, worse than 2016 when many SNE points had 5-10" of cold pow while we had cold clouds as the snow season finished 4" below the 2nd worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 3k N?AM tells Vermonters to go to the banks of the Connecticut and watch the snow accumulate on the other side of the river. Quite the remarkable cutoff Edit: I like the typo in NAM, I am going to leave it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 GFS a bit too far east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: I actually don't have problem with it. Blues have odd behaviors - difficult to pin point that sort of thing. It's probably more of an homage to general possibility ...less 'where' exactly that happens. In fact, I can imagine the cackles and ridicule over the NAM this and that ... all the while missing that point. We're still technically reeling off that pretty crazy late season -EPO last week. It's modulated(ing) positive, but the loading takes time to extinguish - at this time of year, these indexes sometimes reflect more so in the mid level thermal complexion. If we look at that 850s mb, it doens't appear like there's warm problem to this thing being a kind of red flag - Although heh... anyone that thinks this week's been warm at the surface is probably trying to sell snow to Eskimos. I'm just saying ... that's why spring blue bombs happen. Me neither...its like an inch or two of trasnparent slush here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Is this for Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Is this for Friday? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathernoob335 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Nam/hrrr vs the world? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 you are always garunteed 1 crazy run of the NAM within 48h of a storm .. it will be a sad day when they stop running it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 56 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Atlantic optimal, pacific suboptimal, especially considering CC decrease in baroclinicity. Accurate summary? I wouldn't necessarily blame decreasing b-c on climate change this late in the season - assuming that's what you meant there. We're losing gradients via seasonal forcing at this time of year pretty fast, anyway, while CC moves much much slow than the forcing of any single transition season. It's almost impossible parse out the contribution down to a discrete level of either. But you know the former statement is right - The heights being modestly in positive anomaly across the deep S/SE, that is more of a larger scale limitation. It's physically preventing 'as much' N/S amplitude expression, because height falls sandwiched in between that and the NAO blocking becomes a compressed field - which speeds up the flow which stretches things W/E ... Just call it destructive interference. If this latter limitation somehow alleviates, that trough diving through the Lakes has a chance to slow down while passing under Long Island and that would be interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 NAM has a NW bias at this range, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Congrats NH/ME on a 3 day snower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathernoob335 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 GFS has apologized to any weenies impacted by the 06z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 yeha ... if this thing were to somehow pass under Li instead of abeam of PWM ... most people in this sub-forum either meet or exceed their seasonal quota in snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Tamarack might not see the ground until May at this rate. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 congrats Dryslot/Dendrite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 3 hours ago, dendrite said: I’m comparing 24hr maps valid the same time to show they don’t match up. Idc if it snows for 300 hours. It’s all clown trash. Congrats Dendy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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