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The Weekend Rule? Saturday 2/17 - The Icon Storm


DDweatherman
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3k looks really good. Both NAMs look good with precip. What's the deal with Kuchera? 12:1-15:1 rates are what I thought we were expecting? I would expect the clown maps to be throwing out 6-8+, not actually giving us less than 10:1 rates.

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With the NAM.. my guess is that Blue Ridge parts of the area will get the warning levels. It may be the same elsewhere. If it were a weekday and not the weekend tomorrow, I would think it would be a more widespread warning due to commute impacts. Just me rambling. This looks nice. Loving the FGEN! I would love some thunder. Thinking I take a nap this afternoon so I can be up late! :) 

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

3k looks really good. Both NAMs look good with precip. What's the deal with Kuchera? 12:1-15:1 rates are what I thought we were expecting? I would expect the clown maps to be throwing out 6-8+, not actually giving us less than 10:1 rates.

Yeah I noticed that too. My biggest takeaway is that the NAMs don’t show the claw… which is great lol.

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3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

3k looks really good. Both NAMs look good with precip. What's the deal with Kuchera? 12:1-15:1 rates are what I thought we were expecting? I would expect the clown maps to be throwing out 6-8+, not actually giving us less than 10:1 rates.

 

SREF_snowfall_ratio__f021.gif

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4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

3k looks really good. Both NAMs look good with precip. What's the deal with Kuchera? 12:1-15:1 rates are what I thought we were expecting? I would expect the clown maps to be throwing out 6-8+, not actually giving us less than 10:1 rates.

Temps are basically at freezing near the cities. Once you move toward mountains and the Mason-Dixon Line, different story. 

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5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

3k looks really good. Both NAMs look good with precip. What's the deal with Kuchera? 12:1-15:1 rates are what I thought we were expecting? I would expect the clown maps to be throwing out 6-8+, not actually giving us less than 10:1 rates.

You’re not getting 15:1. No one is expecting that.

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3k looks really good. Both NAMs look good with precip. What's the deal with Kuchera? 12:1-15:1 rates are what I thought we were expecting? I would expect the clown maps to be throwing out 6-8+, not actually giving us less than 10:1 rates.

What I think I’ve picked up over the past day is that Kuchera heavily weights ground temps in its formula. There are “other” ways to try and calculate it, and some of the better Mets think they’ll be higher.

I’m expecting 8:1 as always seems to actually fall. Rates never save anyone in the Beltway… but maybe some folks will do better.
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Liking the trend. I'm all in on the Tenleytown Massif reaching 5". And given the insomnia I've been having recently, I ought to be up for it. Watch tonight be the *one* night when I get continuous stage 3 sleep, though. So better stay up and drink so I'll be there, if not coherent, for the ETA. 

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33 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

That was me!  I'm 57.  It's so nice to have a whole community to talk weather with on here.  All I had was weather on the news and my Bearcat weather radio

I'm hoping this one surprises a la 3/9/99

I remember listening to my weather radio on low volume so my parents wouldn't hear it, while staring out of the window at the street light watching it ripping. I agree 100%. Thank goodness for the internet. I thought I was alone and weird. I'm weird and not alone lol

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23 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Perfect pass for us at h85 and the h7 fronto is off the charts. If the NAM verified verbatim, there would be 2-3"/hr rates happening somewhere and possibly TSSN+

3k is a pounding too, funny how kuch is lower than 10:1, with those soundings and that setup, the growth should be great. 

Colleague and I were just talking about this. Pivotal utilizes the surface as part of the formula for ratios on Kuchera and it's weighted too heavily. If it started off the surface from 925 and up, it would be much much better. The Kuchera ratios are better on WeatherBell, but still might be a touch high. 

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
938 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-
526-WVZ050>053-055-171445-
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-
Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-
Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Northwest Prince William-Hampshire-
Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-
938 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West
Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western
Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect
for tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The winter weather headlines continue through early Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should be prepared to report snowfall measurements and
observations of heavy snowfall rates.

 

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
935 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

MDZ004-VAZ505-170000-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0005.240217T0000Z-240217T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KLWX.WS.W.0007.240217T0400Z-240217T1000Z/
Frederick MD-Western Loudoun-
935 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6
  inches. The highest totals are most likely under heavier snow
  bands and for elevations above 1000 feet where isolated totals
  to 8 inches are possible.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Frederick MD County. In Virginia, Western
  Loudoun County.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
  are possible for a few hours under the heaviest snow bands.
  Visibility may be reduced to less than one half mile at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

&&

 

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