JenkinsJinkies Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 New month, new thread. Please pin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 New month, new thread. Please pin.What happened to mid February?Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 2nd time today gfs shows snow in the window Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 43 minutes ago, Ji said: 2nd time today gfs shows snow in the window Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk So...you enjoyed watching this model run with digital blue...more than the real thing if it were to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 WB 0Z EURO control has it too....only two weeks away.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 WB 0Z GEFS and EPS continue to have a good look in two weeks... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Beginning to see a persistent signal across ensemble guidance for a storm towards mid month. For now it looks a bit north/Miller B-ish. Need to watch that TPV position in conjunction with the amplified PNA/EPO ridge, as there will be NS energy dropping southward in the flow and interacting with southern waves. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 6 hours ago, Ji said: What happened to mid February? Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk I stand with Ji. Can we add “mid and” to the thread title? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 So...you enjoyed watching this model run with digital blue...more than the real thing if it were to happen?Not one run..... I need it to happen on many runs and read the excitement in the thread and have the butterflies between the model runs. That's the magicSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 If gfs is right we go on a run of dry days which isn't all bad because my backyard is like walking on a wet sponge. I'm tired of wiping my dogs feet when they come in. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 I probably need to add some 'disclaimers' to my previous post to coddle those who tend to teeter on the edge of panic and have certain misconceptions. That post was simply an interpretation at 2 weeks out of the general idea from current ens guidance for the threat window around mid month- not the actual outcome. Many of our best winter storms are of the Miller B/Hybrid variety. Clearly we can't know any details about wave interactions/timing at this juncture. I think it's time to start looking at and discussing the 'hints' on guidance though. Otherwise we can just continue to post the same H5 panels over and over and geeking out about how gorgeous and epic the advertised pattern is looking going forward. Shame I felt the need to make this post, but I know how it goes here lol. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 JB is still all in https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1752626866945753360?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 6 hours ago, Ji said: 2nd time today gfs shows snow in the window Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk You might not want to see the 6Z runs then... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 6z GFS turned the V-Day storm into a nice cutter. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 You might not want to see the 6Z runs then... As long as the new king euro control shows it 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 I think in two weeks we would take a Miller Z if it means a snow storm. I am not panicked but cautiously optimistic that the last 4-5 weeks (mid February to mid March) of the winter season will deliver. The 3rd week of January's well forecasted H5 pattern gave me 10 inches; if I get another 10 plus inches it will be a "B" winter for me. If we get a wind whipped foot or more storm out of the upcoming pattern, winter 23-24 will get an "A" from me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 38 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: JB is still all in https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1752626866945753360?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A Extreme cold! Final departures for DC-BOS for February probably going to be like +2F lol. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 10 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: New month, new thread. Please pin. Did your captors make you post this? Mods I am concerned this is a cry for help. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Extreme cold! Final departures for DC-BOS for February probably going to be like +2F lol.Monthly anomalies are overrated. We just finished the month with above normal snow and temps and some of the deepest winter had in years. Jan 1-20 was non stop tracking 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 10 hours ago, Ji said: not sure when it will snow again...but we are going to go at least 25 days without snow based on the last time it snowed. Outrageous for a Moderate El Nino Winter Perhaps this is a warmer muted version of 2010 but displaced a bit later. We had that 3 week dead period after the cold/snowy mid Dec to early Jan in 2010. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Latest trends with the AO are very encouraging. Also a weakening of the SPV mid February including a displacement event. HL progression in Early to Mid February is enticing for snow lovers in the East . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Checking the ensembles is becoming part of my breakfast routine. Coffee. Check the H5. Eat. Check MSLP anomalies. Drink more coffee. Zoom out and check the jet’s behavior. Eat. Finish my coffee and post my thoughts here: Everything is on track. No signs of a can kick yet. The “flip” happens from Feb 12-15. I think we will see at least one cutter, maybe two, that brings the wave breaker inducing the -NAO while the aleutian low begins to pop. Don’t panic when I say “cutter”, I know we think they are the enemy and they are during La Ninas, but strong cutters can be our friend as they deliver the cold air to set things up. We saw this happen for the mid-Jan wintry pattern. We will likely see this again for the upcoming mid-late Feb pattern. No certainty that it’ll stick through march, but ensembles are in lock step for cold air delivery with a split flow pattern and a strong STJ. 11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Just now, Terpeast said: Chrcking the ensembles is becoming part of my breakfast routine. Coffee. Check the H5. Eat. Check MSLP anomalies. Drink more coffee. Zoom out and check the jet’s behavior. Eat. Finish my coffee and post my thoughts here: Everything is on track. No signs of a can kick yet. The “flip” happens from Feb 12-15. I think we will see at least one cutter, maybe two, that brings the wave breaker inducing the -NAO while the aleutian low begins to pop. Don’t panic when I say “cutter”, I know we think they are the enemy and they are during La Ninas, but strong cutters can be our friend as they deliver the cold air to set things up. We saw this happen for the mid-Jan wintry pattern. We will likely see this again for the upcoming mid-late Feb pattern. No certainty that it’ll stick through march, but ensembles are in lock step for cold air delivery with a split flow pattern and a strong STJ. Wouldn't an SSW imply that at least the HL blocking stays around? And when those blocking episodes are strong, don't they tend to persist for several weeks? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Wouldn't an SSW imply that at least the HL blocking stays around? And when those blocking episodes are strong, don't they tend to persist for several weeks? Thanks. Well, we had that first SSW a month ago and the mid month blocking was strong, then it fell apart so quickly. Maybe this time will be different, but the polar domain is a bitch to predict more than 7-10 days out. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Checking the ensembles is becoming part of my breakfast routine. Coffee. Check the H5. Eat. Check MSLP anomalies. Drink more coffee. Zoom out and check the jet’s behavior. Eat. Finish my coffee and post my thoughts here: Everything is on track. No signs of a can kick yet. The “flip” happens from Feb 12-15. I think we will see at least one cutter, maybe two, that brings the wave breaker inducing the -NAO while the aleutian low begins to pop. Don’t panic when I say “cutter”, I know we think they are the enemy and they are during La Ninas, but strong cutters can be our friend as they deliver the cold air to set things up. We saw this happen for the mid-Jan wintry pattern. We will likely see this again for the upcoming mid-late Feb pattern. No certainty that it’ll stick through march, but ensembles are in lock step for cold air delivery with a split flow pattern and a strong STJ. Heck no….im not doing two cutters. Take a 5 day break! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 16 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Well, we had that first SSW a month ago and the mid month blocking was strong, then it fell apart so quickly. Maybe this time will be different, but the polar domain is a bitch to predict more than 7-10 days out. My question as well. Do we go past the first week of March? Crystal ball, anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Some decent winters here when MSP struggles Here's a listing of the Top 6 lowest seasonal (July-June) snowfall totals at MSP Airport going back to 1938: 1) 1986-1987: 17.4" 2) 1967-1968: 17.5" 3) 1958-1959: 19.1" 4) 1980-1981: 21.1" 5) 1957-1958: 21.2" 6) 2011-2012: 22.3" So far this season, MSP has received 7.3" snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 7 minutes ago, clueless said: My question as well. Do we go past the first week of March? Crystal ball, anyone? I don't believe "we go past the first week of March" but we could be in the last week of February to first week of March before significant pay-dirt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, aldie 22 said: Some decent winters here when MSP struggles Here's a listing of the Top 6 lowest seasonal (July-June) snowfall totals at MSP Airport going back to 1938: 1) 1986-1987: 17.4" 2) 1967-1968: 17.5" 3) 1958-1959: 19.1" 4) 1980-1981: 21.1" 5) 1957-1958: 21.2" 6) 2011-2012: 22.3" So far this season, MSP has received 7.3" snow That's insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 While I understand this storm is holding on by its fingernails at this point in time, I find the model trends interesting the last 24 Hours. It seems as if there is a phase to be had but it happens well off-shore. How much more would the NS SW need to come westward for the interaction/phase to happen in time for us to benefit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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