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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.


JenkinsJinkies
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Beginning to see a persistent signal across ensemble guidance for a storm towards mid month. For now it looks a bit north/Miller B-ish. Need to watch that TPV position in conjunction with the amplified PNA/EPO ridge, as there will be NS energy dropping southward in the flow and interacting with southern waves.

1707890400-5bXbMorc3VE.png

1707890400-TVZHFUf4hr0.png

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So...you enjoyed watching this model run with digital blue...more than the real thing if it were to happen?
Not one run..... I need it to happen on many runs and read the excitement in the thread and have the butterflies between the model runs. That's the magic

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

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I probably need to add some 'disclaimers' to my previous post to coddle those who tend to teeter on the edge of panic and have certain misconceptions. That post was simply an interpretation at 2 weeks out of the general idea from current ens guidance for the threat window around mid month- not the actual outcome. Many of our best winter storms are of the Miller B/Hybrid variety. Clearly we can't know any details about wave interactions/timing at this juncture. I think it's time to start looking at and discussing the 'hints' on guidance though. Otherwise we can just continue to post the same H5 panels over and over and geeking out about how gorgeous and epic the advertised pattern is looking going forward. Shame I felt the need to make this post, but I know how it goes here lol.

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I think in two weeks we would take a Miller Z if it means a snow storm.  
I am not panicked but cautiously optimistic that the last 4-5 weeks (mid February to mid March) of the winter season will deliver.   
The 3rd week of January's well forecasted H5 pattern gave me 10 inches;  if I get another 10 plus inches it will be a "B" winter for me.  If we get a wind whipped foot or more storm out of the upcoming pattern, winter 23-24 will get an "A" from me.

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Extreme cold! Final departures for DC-BOS for February probably going to be like +2F lol.

Monthly anomalies are overrated. We just finished the month with above normal snow and temps and some of the deepest winter had in years. Jan 1-20 was non stop tracking
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10 hours ago, Ji said:

not sure when it will snow again...but we are going to go at least 25 days without snow based on the last time it snowed. Outrageous for a Moderate El Nino Winter

Perhaps this is a warmer muted version of 2010 but displaced a bit later.  We had that 3 week dead period after the cold/snowy mid Dec to early Jan in 2010. 

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Latest trends with the AO are very encouraging.  Also a weakening of the SPV mid February including a displacement event. HL progression in Early to Mid February is enticing for snow lovers in the East .

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Checking the ensembles is becoming part of my breakfast routine.

Coffee. Check the H5. Eat. Check MSLP anomalies. Drink more coffee. Zoom out and check the jet’s behavior. Eat. Finish my coffee and post my thoughts here:

Everything is on track. No signs of a can kick yet. The “flip” happens from Feb 12-15. I think we will see at least one cutter, maybe two, that brings the wave breaker inducing the -NAO while the aleutian low begins to pop.

Don’t panic when I say “cutter”, I know we think they are the enemy and they are during La Ninas, but strong cutters can be our friend as they deliver the cold air to set things up. We saw this happen for the mid-Jan wintry pattern. We will likely see this again for the upcoming mid-late Feb pattern. No certainty that it’ll stick through march, but ensembles are in lock step for cold air delivery with a split flow pattern and a strong STJ. 

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Just now, Terpeast said:

Chrcking the ensembles is becoming part of my breakfast routine.

Coffee. Check the H5. Eat. Check MSLP anomalies. Drink more coffee. Zoom out and check the jet’s behavior. Eat. Finish my coffee and post my thoughts here:

Everything is on track. No signs of a can kick yet. The “flip” happens from Feb 12-15. I think we will see at least one cutter, maybe two, that brings the wave breaker inducing the -NAO while the aleutian low begins to pop.

Don’t panic when I say “cutter”, I know we think they are the enemy and they are during La Ninas, but strong cutters can be our friend as they deliver the cold air to set things up. We saw this happen for the mid-Jan wintry pattern. We will likely see this again for the upcoming mid-late Feb pattern. No certainty that it’ll stick through march, but ensembles are in lock step for cold air delivery with a split flow pattern and a strong STJ. 

Wouldn't an SSW imply that at least the HL blocking stays around?  And when those blocking episodes are strong, don't they tend to persist for several weeks?  Thanks.  

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2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Wouldn't an SSW imply that at least the HL blocking stays around?  And when those blocking episodes are strong, don't they tend to persist for several weeks?  Thanks.  

Well, we had that first SSW a month ago and the mid month blocking was strong, then it fell apart so quickly. Maybe this time will be different, but the polar domain is a bitch to predict more than 7-10 days out. 

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Checking the ensembles is becoming part of my breakfast routine.
Coffee. Check the H5. Eat. Check MSLP anomalies. Drink more coffee. Zoom out and check the jet’s behavior. Eat. Finish my coffee and post my thoughts here:
Everything is on track. No signs of a can kick yet. The “flip” happens from Feb 12-15. I think we will see at least one cutter, maybe two, that brings the wave breaker inducing the -NAO while the aleutian low begins to pop.
Don’t panic when I say “cutter”, I know we think they are the enemy and they are during La Ninas, but strong cutters can be our friend as they deliver the cold air to set things up. We saw this happen for the mid-Jan wintry pattern. We will likely see this again for the upcoming mid-late Feb pattern. No certainty that it’ll stick through march, but ensembles are in lock step for cold air delivery with a split flow pattern and a strong STJ. 

Heck no….im not doing two cutters. Take a 5 day break!
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16 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Well, we had that first SSW a month ago and the mid month blocking was strong, then it fell apart so quickly. Maybe this time will be different, but the polar domain is a bitch to predict more than 7-10 days out. 

My question as well. Do we go past the first week of March?  Crystal ball, anyone?  

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Some decent winters here when MSP struggles

Here's a listing of the Top 6 lowest seasonal (July-June) snowfall totals at MSP Airport going back to 1938: 1) 1986-1987: 17.4" 2) 1967-1968: 17.5" 3) 1958-1959: 19.1" 4) 1980-1981: 21.1" 5) 1957-1958: 21.2" 6) 2011-2012: 22.3" So far this season, MSP has received 7.3" snow

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1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

Some decent winters here when MSP struggles

Here's a listing of the Top 6 lowest seasonal (July-June) snowfall totals at MSP Airport going back to 1938: 1) 1986-1987: 17.4" 2) 1967-1968: 17.5" 3) 1958-1959: 19.1" 4) 1980-1981: 21.1" 5) 1957-1958: 21.2" 6) 2011-2012: 22.3" So far this season, MSP has received 7.3" snow

That's insane.

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While I understand this storm is holding on by its fingernails at this point in time, I find the model trends interesting the last 24 Hours. It seems as if there is a phase to be had but it happens well off-shore. How much more would the NS SW need to come westward for the interaction/phase to happen in time for us to benefit? 

 

 

222gfs_z500_vort_atl_fh150_trend.gif

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