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Jan 19th Snow on Snow: the this always works until it doesn't thread


psuhoffman
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2 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

lol her head will explode if she sees this

my head exploded a decade plus ago when i saw them for the first time. i give the man credit, to create maps that consistently awful to interpret is rather impressive. 

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Just now, mappy said:

my head exploded a decade plus ago when i saw them for the first time. i give the man credit, to create maps that consistently awful to interpret is rather impressive. 

It’s an art. Even I’m impressed at the consistency all these years 

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9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

^my interpretation of 10:1 vs Kuchera going off those maps is that, like @Bob Chill was saying, any snow that falls later in the afternoon is high ratio fluff. Main round is basically 10:1. 

Absolutely. For just about everyone along and west of I-95 (including the metros), WPC 6-hr averaged SLRs are 10-12:1 generally between 06-12Z, but 12-18Z are 13-15:1 (Catoctins could approach 16:1), then 18-00Z tomorrow are 15-17:1. Question becomes how much moisture & lift can stick around the region that late.

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13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I hope the Grindr Forecast System is probably gonna hold.  It never gets this excited.   Blend the snowiest model with the other snowiest model and go from there.

Can you please send me your Grindr login so you don't have to deal with amateurs anymore. 

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I know it has been mentioned but this entire week has basically been at or below freezing with a night in the single digits for some and a couple of nights in the low 10's. This should be immediate impact so anyone out clubbing tonight should make final call at 1am so they can get home safely

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10 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

The new thread effect might be 2 for 2. 

Its like Texas hold 'em.  Our hole cards are usually 2/5 off suit.  The first thread is the first burn card before the flop.  The flop is the storm potential.  Every every bad run is a burn card and every good run is the turn and the river.  Sometimes even with 2/5 off suit we luckbox into a full house or flush.  Sometimes with good storms we get a the straight flush.  

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I know it has been mentioned but this entire week has basically been at or below freezing with a night in the single digits for some and a couple of nights in the low 10's. This should be immediate impact so anyone out clubbing tonight should make final call at 1am so they can get home safely

Winter Club Warning


.
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9 minutes ago, wxmvpete said:

Absolutely. For just about everyone along and west of I-95 (including the metros), WPC 6-hr averaged SLRs are 10-12:1 generally between 06-12Z, but 12-18Z are 13-15:1 (Catoctins could approach 16:1), then 18-00Z tomorrow are 15-17:1. Question becomes how much moisture & lift can stick around the region that late.

Can you make a specific ratio for MBY which is just under DC?  I seem to have a 3.14159:1 ratio for my snows.  Thanks.

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Its like Texas hold 'em.  Our hole cards are usually 2/5 off suit.  The first thread is the first burn card before the flop.  The flop is the storm potential.  Every every bad run is a burn card and every good run is the turn and the river.  Sometimes even with 2/5 off suit we luckbox into a full house or flush.  Sometimes with good storms we get a the straight flush.  

It’s the Monty hall problem. You always want to switch doors
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3 minutes ago, GATECH said:

Make a thread, so we can kill it and make a new one!  I have a trip to Canaan and don’t want rain!

No. Don't. We got a good thing going with this thread. Starting a new one might be bad juju....

Unless the 18z/0z runs lay an egg on us.

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