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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.


wdrag
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Still raining here...since yesterday evening. About 2.5 inches snow by the time it moved to sleet then rain last night. I was not going to break out the snowblower but it was quite wet and heavy by 9pm so I decided to make life easy.

Before the changeover, the snow was quite lovely. My son was visiting overnight so he took out the drone to film and take pics of the house with fresh snow and the Christmas lights.

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Final (more or less as light snow still ongoing off and on) Snowfall = 6".  Depth at 8am = 5.5".

Will update melted total shortly.

Went to rain at 8:15 last evening with 3.8".    Went back to snow and at 3am was 6".    Settled and compacted to 5.5" at 8am obs. time.

Very heavy and wet snow pack.

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9 minutes ago, BlizzLuv said:

Still raining here...since yesterday evening. About 2.5 inches snow by the time it moved to sleet then rain last night. I was not going to break out the snowblower but it was quite wet and heavy by 9pm so I decided to make life easy.

Before the changeover, the snow was quite lovely. My son was visiting overnight so he took out the drone to film and take pics of the house with fresh snow and the Christmas lights.

Take a ride up the hills a few miles to your west, snowing hard again.

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Moderate snowfall here - might freshen up our huge snowpack, lol (we still have maybe 1/2"-1" of dense slush on the ground, as the rain didn't wash it all away). More seriously, though, can't see these snow showers amounting to anything of consequence with temps in the 35-37F range. Pretty to watch, though.

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4 hours ago, wdrag said:

The future, besides additional snow today I78 in PA-NJ as well as LI northward.

Attached is an ensemble based map (CMCE and GEFS) of resultant potential river problems by Wednesday. Purple is potential major, red potential moderate and the brown = minor.  This guidance is accurate IF the 2-3" of rain and snowmelt materializes. 

We'll keep this thread going with storm two (9th-10th) instead of a separate OBS thread.  

The Tue - Wed, flood, heavy rainfall, wind damage reports will flow right into this thread will have integrity from start to finish. 

I dont plan to start any new threads beyond the 10th, until at least tomorrow or Tuesday.  Have a day and NYC, enjoy the new snow later this morning...maybe it can accumulate on grass-cars?

 

 

Screen Shot 2024-01-07 at 6.16.19 AM.png

Walt - thanks and a question.  Can you highlight the differences between the "ensemble" river forecasts and what I guess I'd call the "regular" river flooding forecasts from the NWS (which are both under the "rivers and lakes" tab on the NWS page)?  What is the ensemble of?  Mostly curious why the ensemble forecast has the Passaic at risk of major flooding, while the regular forecast only has that in moderate flooding, as per below and in general the ensemble forecasts are much more serious.  Is one or the other more accurate?  

WqcFrFC.png

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3 hours ago, snywx said:

You can see where the band set up last night..

10-15" in the band

Screen Shot 2024-01-07 at 7.36.57 AM.png

Need to extend that a little north now. The Kingston area had a good foot. Then it tails off so by the time you're into Greene County it's 6 or 7 inches. But we remain in steady snow, moderate at times. 6" at my place in Albany County. 28F.

A rather meager 16" of snow for the season to date. Last year we started slow also but then got pounded by three  big wet snowstorms in February/March and closed with 96 inches.

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