Dec/Jan Medium/Long Range Disco

[Ralph Wiggum]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs has a perfect upper and surface low pass on the 29th it’s just about 5 degrees too warm in the boundary layer. 

Just posted in my home sub. I mean, I know the reason for lack of white being the BL as you also noted....but sucks to see such a good track and another wasted opportunity.  We'll get there....eventually. We will.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just posted in my home sub. I mean, I know the reason for lack of white being the BL as you also noted....but sucks to see such a good track and another wasted opportunity.  We'll get there....eventually. We will.

Does it make you feel any better to know it probably would have been snow 50 years ago?  I wonder if in the future weather weenies will track “storms that used to be snow”. 

[midatlanticweather]

Not buying it.. But it has a chance to get colder.... Or warmer. Lol. I would say it would be worth watching but the model consistency has been rough at the surface

[nj2va]

For those looking for the digital blue fix, GFS seems to be setting up for the 5th/6th.

[LP08]

Just now, nj2va said:

For those looking for the digital blue fix, GFS seems to be setting up for the 5th/6th.

Was just looking at that.  We really need to fast forward a week to have everyone feel better.

[HighStakes]

37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs has a perfect upper and surface low pass on the 29th it’s just about 5 degrees too warm in the boundary layer. 

Reminds of storm in December 97. Almost to the exact day. It did snow all day moderately but just could never manage to accumulate well. I lived in Owings Mills/Reisterstown then and maybe totaled 2 inches after many hours of moderate snow. Probably did better out our way but overall a waste of a good storm. Slightly colder would've produced 4-6.

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Was just looking at that.  We really need to fast forward a week to have everyone feel better.

Yeah, incoming blues imminent at H342.  This period keeps showing up as potentially our first trackable event.

[SnowenOutThere]

@Ji are you finally happy … for 6 hours at least?

[HighStakes]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Does it make you feel any better to know it probably would have been snow 50 years ago?  I wonder if in the future weather weenies will track “storms that used to be snow”. 

It's really frustrating. This type of system is supposed to be an easy 3-6 inches with temps between 30-32 and we just can't get there on any marginal event. 

[Kevin Reilly]

47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs has a perfect upper and surface low pass on the 29th it’s just about 5 degrees too warm in the boundary layer. 

I think we watch this because that storm was once one consolidated storm now we are beginning to see redevelopment off the coast and the cold air is at least trying to catch up so I am still interested a bit in the 29th. 

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yeah, incoming blues imminent at H342.  This period keeps showing up as potentially our first trackable event.

Nice 2-4/3-6 event lol

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Nice 2-4/3-6 event lol

That was perfect…plenty cold and solid moderate event for the region.

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

In any event, if I were a betting man, my money leans towards South of 40 (at the very least) being favored for something.

Only an op but mirrors my thoughts:

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Reminds of storm in December 97. Almost to the exact day. It did snow all day moderately but just could never manage to accumulate well. I lived in Owings Mills/Reisterstown then and maybe totaled 2 inches after many hours of moderate snow. Probably did better out our way but overall a waste of a good storm. Slightly colder would've produced 4-6.

 Coop near here recorded 4” from that storm. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, nj2va said:

That was perfect…plenty cold and solid moderate event for the region.

If that run were extended it would have been a pants tent sorta thing thru the 2nd week of Jan. That's a more than serviceable pattern. Waiting on the ens means.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS, not giving up on early next weekend yet....

[Steve25]

I'm just happy to be seeing a lot more large swaths of cold air on the models now. Always the first step. 

[stormy]

I really enjoyed reading the long ago memories from PSU this morning. You should finish that met. degree at some point. The personal reward would be tremendous.

This caused me to reflect on many memories of my own of snowstorms all the way back to the 60's. Though very young, I have fleeting recall of the March 5 - 8 1962 "Ash Wednesday Storm" that dumped 30 - 36 inches in my area. We were snowbound for several days before a bulldozer opened our road. Late Jan. of 66 gave us 37 inches in 7 days from 3 storms with 10 ft. drifts. Every highway in Augusta County blocked with drifts on Sunday, Jan. 30.

Regarding the GFS for the 29th, taken literally the op. gives me 5 inches at 10:1 but the surface temps at 36 - 37 degrees at the 1201 Ft. Valley Airport would likely make this an accumulation elevation event mostly above 1500 ft. even in pre-dawn darkness.

[Ji]

[mention=514]Ji[/mention] are you finally happy … for 6 hours at least?

It keeps getting pushed back…from Jan 2 to Jan 4 to Jan 6

[WinterWxLuvr]

The 28th-29th period could go our way. Just yesterday it was just a hint. 

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

It keeps getting pushed back…from Jan 2 to Jan 4 to Jan 6

GEFS has a southern/tn valley wave between this panel and the bowling alley clearing out but this setup looks pretty good. You can track the wave from the west coast on the ens. Who knows how things break but flow is kinda slow. Waves are separated. Long range models may key in on a stronger wave pretty far out in time. 

 

 

Pretty sweet MSLP panel too.  This is a good look for us 

 

[WesternFringe]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs has a perfect upper and surface low pass on the 29th it’s just about 5 degrees too warm in the boundary layer. 

Weather app on my phone is showing snow for us with elevation in Augusta County that day.  Will be keeping an eye on that storm.  Self-

[WesternFringe]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS. Still waiting for my first flakes in SW Frederick... maybe next weekend!

Gives me 3-4” and PSU similar, which, I am reading bodes well for winter overall for the subforum!

ETA:  I know that the GFS, even if right about snow developing, very likely will not nail the location at 174 hrs, but this tells me maybe someone in the forum has a chance for a quick shot of pouring snow

[Wxdavis5784]

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

@Ji are you finally happy … for 6 hours at least?

Nah, because he can see the back end coming from the Ozarks.

[dallen7908]

4 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said:

Nah, because he can see the back end coming from the Ozarks.

Well if there wasn't more than a little Ji in us we wouldn't be here 300 hours before game time

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

@Ji are you finally happy … for 6 hours at least?

Atlanta area moderate intensity low pressures bring more good results to DC than any other set ups. So if that’s  true and shows up , and doesn’t get delayed until a 1/15 projection example starts up, then  we can be optimistic .  These aren’t always snowers but the majority of what is impressive around here is from the Atlanta source region  

[Wxdavis5784]

1 minute ago, dallen7908 said:

Well if there wasn't more than a little Ji in us we wouldn't be here 300 hours before game time

We are all hunting... Some complain about the back end prior to the first flake falling.

I get it though, its all in the back of our minds...

[WesternFringe]

10 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Atlanta area moderate intensity low pressures bring more good results to DC than any other set ups. So if that’s  true and shows up , and doesn’t get delayed until a 1/15 projection example starts up, then  we can be optimistic .  These aren’t always snowers but the majority of what is impressive around here is from the Atlanta source region  

I forget, is it you or Stormchaserchuck that said mushrooms are better than weed?  Just kidding, and I know you know more about longwave weather than I do, but I don’t always understand what you mean. 

12Z shows what the ensembles hinted at which is a lottery snowfall potential for some in our sub late next week. Likely favors NW and elevation as temps and lift dominate the snow equation 

[WesternFringe]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t regret going into teaching at all. I do think about going back and finishing my meteorology degree someday though. Feels like unfinished business. 

I teach HS math, like algebra, geometry, calculus, stats, etc.  

In my 21st year.  I have my PhD and should go teach preservice teachers in college, but I just really love teaching high schoolers.

[CAPE]

For the 6th-7th some of the GEFS members involve a stronger piece of NS energy dropping southward in the flow between the EPO ridge and the TPV, which is visible on the ens mean. Something to keep an eye on going forward. The 12z members that have a storm are a mixture of low pressure rolling across the southern states and emerging off the SE/MA coast(what we want), a primary OV low with some sort of secondary development, to a prominent NS low digging south and tracking over the GLs/NE with any secondary development too far north/offshore. In this particular setup we probably want the the NS shortwaves to stay out of the way. Always challenges with random wave interactions lol.  Still a long way to go.