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Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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1 hour ago, OHweather said:

Normally when I make a blog post I repurpose it a bit and upload it here as well, but I need to go in and delete attachments to make room for uploads and I also need to go to bed. So, I'll simply provide a link to the post.

The tldr for the Midwest/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley is:

  • A very active pattern with a -PNA and deepening cold out west continues through next weekend, with the cold air likely getting pulled in next weekend as a retrograding -NAO forces the cold air into the eastern US
  • The air dropping into the west later next week into next weekend will be arctic and legitimately frigid. It will modify a bit before getting to this region but certainly not too much
  • The cutter this Monday-Tuesday looks very robust and a swath of heavy, wet snow seems likely with it
  • The storm Friday-Saturday will probably cut as well, but with more blocking in front of it and increased polar vortex influence may have more front-end snow and may have more room to trend suppressed if there's too much polar influence. That storm has high-end impact potential
  • After that storm the storm track likely gets more suppressed. There may be a brief window for a wave to affect the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys around January 15-16 if the cold air isn't too suppressive. There may be clipper/lake effect potential for a brief window when the cold is most entrenched
  • The pattern likely trends more zonal after January 20th with temperatures trending seasonal to slightly mild. While it will be harder to see an amplified/phased storm, the pattern will remain active with west-east moving systems. It won't be a torch, so some snow potential probably lingers through this milder spell, especially farther north
  • Factors may align for a western ridge and more high latitude blocking the very end of January through the first half of February

Regarding Friday-Saturday's storm, some really impressive ingredients in place:

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-5060800.thumb.png.24111c6ffdc0c583d1210497f18f57af.png

A prolonged cross-polar flow pulls Siberian air and a large chunk of the tropospheric polar vortex into Canada this upcoming week, with that airmass radiationally cooling and deepening over relatively fresh snowpack over western and central Canada. There's also some cold air getting pulled into the Great Lakes ahead of the storm, increasing potential for front end snow north of the approaching low. The arctic air building over Canada drops in behind the storm with a warm and humid airmass getting drawn up ahead of it:

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-pwat_anom-5060800.thumb.png.e0e6b800734153dc5cd9632e19bc898e.png

For good measure, these 3 pieces of energy in the arctic, polar, and sub-tropical jets will all potentially phase and the PV lobe may get pulled in as well, depending on where it is:

38186753_ECM300wind108.thumb.png.2385d6c6c07d4052a527c36d390a75a4.png

This is an absolute powder keg of a set-up, if all 3 pieces phase and part of the PV gets pulled in it would be a high-end blizzard for someone. I would caution, however, that as exciting as the set-up appears to be that PVs don't always play nice with these set-ups and there is expected to be a retrograding -NAO in front of the storm. There's a chance this trends more suppressed, and the 0z EPS members are all over the place with the placement and minimum pressure with the low:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ecentus-mslp_with_low_locs-1704499200-1705060800-1705233600-100.thumb.gif.f370c264e646751a9cfff45443329c45.gif

The spread is to be expected this far out and there are a number of members that are nukes, into the 950s or 960s, but we will need to watch how the polar vortex looks to interact with the storm and if there's any suppressive influence or not. 

Thanks for saying all of this more eloquently than I can. Yeah the difference in the ensemble means (particularly the GEFS from the GEPS and EPS) in handling the PV interaction makes me think that this main wave needs to amplify in the west initially to avoid a) sliding east/south and turning into a nor’easter and b) getting suppressed to the point of a lesser event. CMC operational showed the former. If the timing is right though, the Euro, GFS, and what would be the UK just beyond range are the types of potential you look for once a decade essentially.

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5 hours ago, andyhb said:

That would be rivaling the Blizzard of 1978 for the most severe on record in the Midwest. I say that with an entirely straight face.

I don’t recall if I’ve ever seen a 60+ mb gradient in my life quite like that. 1045 MB high in WCAN and a 970 MB low rushing through the GL is prolific. The thing that made ‘78 so special was that the arctic jet was basically brought down to the surface, wind gusts topped 100 mph over Lake Erie with sustained winds topping out at 80 in Cleveland 

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I looked at all the guidance and wondered if perhaps the eventual solution is a very strong low a bit further east like a Euro track with GFS intensity running up into Lake huron rather than Lake michigan. That would be even more similar to 1-26-1978 and would bring heaviest snow and intense blizzard conditions into Indiana and lower michigan although it would still be an extreme event for IL and WI. Would not be anywhere near 54" of snow for STL, perhaps 10-15", the max snowfalls on my proposed track (at GFS intensity) would be 30-40 inches from about s IL to GRR to n lower michigan. All it takes to shift east is a deeper dive of vorticity into TX and recurve into e/c AR and w KY-s IL then n.n.e., 960 low near LAN instead of GRB. 

In weather history, L huron is of course a magnet for deep lows, beside 1-26-78 there was also 11-09-1913, but I suppose if analogs for further west are sought, how about Nov 1, 1991? 

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3 hours ago, nwohweather said:

I don’t recall if I’ve ever seen a 60+ mb gradient in my life quite like that. 1045 MB high in WCAN and a 970 MB low rushing through the GL is prolific. The thing that made ‘78 so special was that the arctic jet was basically brought down to the surface, wind gusts topped 100 mph over Lake Erie with sustained winds topping out at 80 in Cleveland 

The winds could be awesome for seiche in Erie. 

But overall that was maybe the worst run of the gfs ive seen haha. Central and Western Lakes cash and Eastern Lakes gets nothing. Id rather warmth instead of cold and bare ground haha

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The only issue I have with this projection is that it doesn't make sense on face value. There is blocking to the north with a strong -NAO and there should be some confluence from the Tuesday/Wednesday storm and this one riding right up on its heels. I would expect this to come south and east some over time and the GEFS members are actually much more subdued, even a few that have completely nothing. I just don't buy a storm running right into a block like that and almost moving due north as well. Also too the system this weekend and the one early next week have come south some or in the case of the early next week storm isn't nearly as wrapped up and takes a more NEward trek compared to some of the early model projections. I do still think this will be a significant threat but I would expect a bit flatter of a track. For some people like Missouri and central Illinois the output probably will remain significant either way.

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2 hours ago, Stebo said:

The only issue I have with this projection is that it doesn't make sense on face value. There is blocking to the north with a strong -NAO and there should be some confluence from the Tuesday/Wednesday storm and this one riding right up on its heels. I would expect this to come south and east some over time and the GEFS members are actually much more subdued, even a few that have completely nothing. I just don't buy a storm running right into a block like that and almost moving due north as well. Also too the system this weekend and the one early next week have come south some or in the case of the early next week storm isn't nearly as wrapped up and takes a more NEward trek compared to some of the early model projections. I do still think this will be a significant threat but I would expect a bit flatter of a track. For some people like Missouri and central Illinois the output probably will remain significant either way.

Gfs looking like you may be onto something...

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2 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Gfs looking like you may be onto something...

It will keep changing so I am not going to take a bow by any stretch here, it could easily suppress further south or go back north.

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1 minute ago, Stebo said:

It will keep changing so I am not going to take a bow by any stretch here, it could easily suppress further south or go back north.

Yea suppression is always the worry in El nino. Obviously like you said, until that midweek system rolls through, who knows.  

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4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Not saying it will happen but the pattern does have great potential

canvas.png.5ef555dec45da957757d6b868ccaf372.png

 

There are quite a bit of similarities to another monster

https://www.weather.gov/images/dtx/events/Jan25_12Z_500.jpg

Of course I'm jealous of our Chicago friends for Tuesday, but it's really looking to me similar to our March 3rd storm. It will be fun as hell when it's ongoing but there's really no cold air with it or behind it.  However, whatever does happen next Friday and Saturday, there's a ton of cold air on its heels. Definitely potential. 

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3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

10 years ago, today, we had −50° wind chills, 16" of snow on the ground... and it was only the beginning.

 I feel we talk about it every winter but that's about as nasty as I've seen it around here. Deep snow, arctic temps. I doubt we'll see that ever again.

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2 minutes ago, Chambana said:

I was going to ask if 1/5/14 “Polar Vortex Blizzard” would be a potential analog for next weeks setup. One of my favorite storms of the last decade. What a beast. 

Kind of but the difference is this vort is more pacific originating and dives further south, its a loose analog though with the shape of the setup.

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