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Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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We'll be kicking off the calendar flip from November to December with a pattern that actually has some potential if you're looking for wintry weather. The main question is...Will it produce?

We are quickly transitioning from one major pattern shift, which is bringing the current wintry period, to another major pattern shift. Similar to the current pattern, this next change will also be fairly short in duration, lasting only a week or so. This new pattern is very complex, blocky, and active all in one. We are seeing a fast-developing, potent -NAO ridge in the vicinity of Greenland, with a PV lobe trapped beneath it, anchored around the Hudson. Further west and south, we will be seeing a formidable -PNA develop for a time, with a fair bit of troughing in the west and also a slight flexing of the Southeast ridge.

The -NAO/Hudson PV lobe combo will keep cold temperatures within reach and keep any potential activity from being too far northwest, while the Western troughing will provide numerous disturbances that will eject out across the country. On paper, this period has potential, but at the same time, it has the same amount of potential to feature strung-out/flat messes as well. In other words, keep a watch on things and don't rule out a surprise.

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18 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Euro shows a foot of snow for Hawkeye and much of the Iowa crew late next weekend.  Looks like the next system of note to watch.  GFS and others show something in that time frame as well.  Perhaps our 2nd storm thread of the new season incoming?

Just a day ago models were cutting off a big upper low in the southwest US.  Today they are shooting the energy eastward through the midwest.  We'll likely see it flop all over the place through mid next week.

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8 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Just a day ago models were cutting off a big upper low in the southwest US.  Today they are shooting the energy eastward through the midwest.  We'll likely see it flop all over the place through mid next week.

Everything favors a progressive pattern, so I wouldn't expect to see that cutoff idea come back and see reality.

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Correct me if I'm wrong but I feel like once we get into the medium range, the models have gotten a lot more consistent at showing the same changes in thinking simultaneously, even if they're not necessarily correct. Like with next weekend's potential, all of the models have exhibited a dramatic changeup in the last 18 hours but they're doing it together, for better or worse. There hasn't been nearly as much "catching up" ya know?

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I wouldn't get too caught up in the potential revolving around next weekend for several more days.

We're shifting into a fairly progressive pattern, and there are several pieces that need to be well placed for things to work out.

Guidance is a go for now...We'll see how things look come Wednesday/Thursday.

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7 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

I wouldn't get too caught up in the potential revolving around next weekend for several more days.

We're shifting into a fairly progressive pattern, and there are several pieces that need to be well placed for things to work out.

Guidance is a go for now...We'll see how things look come Wednesday/Thursday.

Yeah the 00z Euro was pretty wild locally, GFS well east with the system. 

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I like our placement between models but as always now, I fear a one-run transition to an event with a much lower ceiling. 

Question: why is it that, for example, the 06z GFS offered a pretty bland storm while the 06z GEFS was pretty crazy with the vast majority of members with a storm depicting a much more impressive event than the OP?

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I like our placement between models but as always now, I fear a one-run transition to an event with a much lower ceiling. 
Question: why is it that, for example, the 06z GFS offered a pretty bland storm while the 06z GEFS was pretty crazy with the vast majority of members with a storm depicting a much more impressive event than the OP?
As Joe/Chicago Storm mentioned, there's a lot of moving parts with the setup, so you're going to see plenty of variance in the guidance. Getting the flow to slow down enough for a digging strongly negatively tilted wave (like 00z Euro op), level of phasing, or lack thereof, etc. Those are all big question marks and handling all the complex features will vary greatly with small changes in other conditions.

Re. your question about the 06z GFS and GEFS, think of the operational models as one of the ensemble members. That's honestly a good thing to see the difference between the operational and a sizeable portion of the ensemble, to give you an idea of the full spectrum of possible outcomes and see how the more robust members are handling the evolution differently. The GEFS has often had an issue holding too close to the operational.

Definitely wait and see mode until later in the week.




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