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Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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It was a long road, but we finally have an official SSWE on our hands...

The first period of significant warming in late December and early January, which missed SSWE "criteria", was a significant driving force in the recent/current wintry pattern. This secondary period of significant warming and actual SSWE could lead to a period of interest as we hit the very end of January and head into February. 

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15 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

It was a long road, but we finally have an official SSWE on our hands...

The first period of significant warming in late December and early January, which missed SSWE "criteria", was a significant driving force in the recent/current wintry pattern. This secondary period of significant warming and actual SSWE could lead to a period of interest as we hit the very end of January and head into February. 

ps2png-worker-commands-5f6448649f-kz7pp-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-6MtL_i.png.d0f8d2043457a6a611c01dfb85e7ef1b.png

pattern reload. 

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20 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Models showing potential for some freezing rain Monday night into Tuesday morning 

Since you mentioned this I wanted to give my thoughts on this one. There is definitely a moisture surge that comes north Monday into Tuesday, but it comes north with a modest LLJ, weaker than one would expect and the system isn't overly strong. What is good about that is the WAA would be weaker than expected, and with a cold dense air mass in place it would be slower to get shunted away and that's without factoring in a decent snow pack that gets added to today into tomorrow. I would say I could see a colder solution barring a dramatic change, and the GFS is definitely leaning that way with a solid snowfall on Tuesday with some ice along I-80.

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1 hour ago, sbnwx85 said:

User name does not check out.

 

2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

YARN | word to your mother | Vanilla Ice - Ice Ice Baby | Video gifs by  quotes | 283e70bf | 紗

Thank you I needed that laugh this afternoon! It’s more related to what I’m doing work wise right now lol. I mind as well accept the nice beautiful coating on trees! 

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My post from several days ago doesn't look like it's going to age well. [mention=525]OHweather[/mention] can probably speak to this better but it appears there's going to be another Pacific jet extension event, paired with the MJO forecast to go into unfavorable phases.

So the favorable look that existed end of the month into February certainly isn't there on the ensembles anymore. That said, with the warmer stratosphere and resultant weakened SPV, the retraction of the Pac jet may eventually lead to another favorable window, aided by the MJO if it keeps moving along like it has been lately.

Relative to pre-season thinking for this winter, the stretch we've been in has been quite active and unexpected, up there with the winter 2020-21 rally though with the heaviest snows displaced west and northwest. It's not too surprising to get back into another unfavorable window amidst a strong Niño if things play out as they're looking at this point for late January into the start of February.



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5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

i work by ord, same turd winter as lakeside

 

bad take.

ORD finished slightly above normal in snowfall for Oct and Nov, and will now do the same for Jan.

obviously it has been a torch temp wise until the past week or so, but snowfall wise it is as expected.

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