Maestrobjwa Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: that is literally the only reason At last we have a breakthrough of understanding of the psychology of some of these posts But ya see, that alone doesn't work...if things don't work out you're STILL disappointed. And lowering expectations doesn't work either, btw. Like watching a team you love that regularly screws things up...it's still gonna hurt if they come so close to winning but find a to choke. Like you know your team's propensity to do that...yet deep down you can't stop hoping. Then they let you down and it still kinda hurts. That's what the last 8 years have been like. This is why I don't get why people don't understand why the posting has been more negative. Like...HELLO? You measured snow lately?? Lol I learned last winter that when things suck, the only real relief is to just not think about it as much. By February I was on here and the model sites less and less. That way the only reminder I got was on the news when the weather came on. I'd fuss and fume...and then that'd be it. Same technique I'd use while the Orioles were absolutely awful from 2018-2021. Lessen the exposure...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 41 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Weather looks incredibly boring for awhile. Generally warm and continued pretty dry. The good news is that as long as this current pattern holds, we can continue surveying and pouring concrete at mesonet sites. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 15 minutes ago, mattie g said: I have to ask...why do you think that other than to gird yourself against potential disappointment? Just the way winters have been trending. Also just get the feeling it’s not going to be amazing. Should be better than last year but, that’s not a high mark to beat lol. 2” would be 100% higher 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 56 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Weather looks incredibly boring for awhile. Generally warm and continued pretty dry. Selfishly, since snow is a long shot in november down this way anyway, my heating oil getting a few weeks of limited usage is...not terrible news. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Just the way winters have been trending. Also just get the feeling it’s not going to be amazing. Should be better than last year but, that’s not a high mark to beat lol. 2” would be 100% higher If this does morph into a drier than expected winter following this year long severe drought we are in over here , with the corresponding large drop in ground water levels - The Shenandoah Valley and over toward Culpepper will be a massive agricultural disaster area going into the next growing season... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2023 Author Share Posted November 6, 2023 40 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Selfishly, since snow is a long shot in november down this way anyway, my heating oil getting a few weeks of limited usage is...not terrible news. Yeah it’s “fine”. I’m just always impatient for winter to show up. Doesn’t change my feeling about winter at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah it’s “fine”. I’m just always impatient for winter to show up. Doesn’t change my feeling about winter at all. I'm honestly in no rush to bring cold weather in - never have been and never will be. On December 1, my feelings change and I'm ready to roll (or at least ready to start seeing wintry weather on the horizon), but before that I don't get worked up about the weather on any given day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 If we were getting N'easters now, the gripe would be "if this were only a month later".... Anyway, if we get to late December with no pattern change in site then I will start to worry, but even then the seasonals say February will be the best month. No model has shown a strong signal for a cold and wintry November or December. Edit: maybe the JMA likes Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 2 hours ago, Jrlg1181 said: If this does morph into a drier than expected winter following this year long severe drought we are in over here , with the corresponding large drop in ground water levels - The Shenandoah Valley and over toward Culpepper will be a massive agricultural disaster area going into the next growing season... Your thoughts are outstanding !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Many others are whistling Dixie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 3 hours ago, TSSN+ said: Just the way winters have been trending. Also just get the feeling it’s not going to be amazing. Should be better than last year but, that’s not a high mark to beat lol. 2” would be 100% higher So far as in past years. I see way too much play off the Pacific Ocean. I am not sure how warm the Pacific Ocean is, but it's becoming clearer every year that the warmth flowing off the Earth's largest body of water is well, just bullying the polar / Arctic continental air out of the way or keeping it FAR NORTH. It's new normal I have been observing more and more since the 1970's, 1980's, 1990's, and 2000's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 Doug Kammerer leaning towards the chances of a decent snowstorm or two this winter. Just released his winter forecast on the air. He's going nearly 200% normal snowfall for DCA and "3 or 4 Nor'Easters". 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Doug Kammerer leaning towards the chances of a decent snowstorm or two this winter. Just released his winter forecast on the air. He's going nearly 200% normal snowfall for DCA and "3 or 4 Nor'Easters". well AN 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: well AN He nailed last year but if I recall he went big a few years ago and missed big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 22 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: well AN He messed up the label! LOL! He is on an FB live mentioning he was frustrated about it! Going with good Subtropical jet and a weakened PV which would allow for more phasing. He likely has more reasons than these. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 22 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: well AN Does he know the dates are wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 47 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: well AN Wrong year label aside, Doug is even more bullish than I am… And he was right about last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 31 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Does he know the dates are wrong Ya. he was not happy. Fixed it for the future views. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 Wait until Eric Webb sees Doug's forecast 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Wrong year label aside, Doug is even more bullish than I am… And he was right about last year. Woah. That's big time. I made some jokes on here last year about his forecast but he did nail it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 1 hour ago, DarkSharkWX said: well AN We take 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Doug Kammerer leaning towards the chances of a decent snowstorm or two this winter. Just released his winter forecast on the air. He's going nearly 200% normal snowfall for DCA and "3 or 4 Nor'Easters". he seemed legit excited - i hope he's right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 2 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: He messed up the label! LOL! He is on an FB live mentioning he was frustrated about it! Going with good Subtropical jet and a weakened PV which would allow for more phasing. He likely has more reasons than these. lmao i didn't even notice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 Just now, pazzo83 said: he seemed legit excited - i hope he's right. Me too. Honestly, I'd like to pattern to flip maybe 5 to 7 days before Christmas then we don't torch the rest of the winter. I know we cannot expect wall-to-wall cold, but having it in the 60s in mid January with bad air quality and no precipitation last winter was just terrible. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 Was coming to post the same tweet. 48-52” or is it 30-40” (colors vs labels, bad map) imby after last years dismal snowfall would be a treat 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 Agreed...the southern stream has been practically non-existent for most of the year with most of the storms riding the high latitudes. That seems very Nina'ish, though maybe the gom will open up as the jet streams sinks farther south.Didn’t the niño officially take hold in June though? We were still in a niña at the end of last winter through spring. So using the entire year as a reference doesn’t seem right here. Most mets I follow have been saying the STJ likely won’t get going until late November / early December. Have to imagine it takes some time for the longwave pattern to become entrenched and for things to unfold downstream for us. We also had a pretty wet September. Pretty sure dry Octobers during niño years isn’t super uncommon either but someone correct me if I’m wrong. Think it’s still a tad early to be either too concerned or too optimistic about our chances this winter. If it’s still super dry come thanksgiving through December 15th, we can revisit the possibility of a drier niño. One thing is for sure… there are a ton of different factors at play here. Some of which could drastically help us, some that could crush our hopes. We’ve discussed winner and loser niños at length in here over the past several months. All it takes is 1 or 2 things at h5 to be wrong for it all to come crashing down, or vice versa. I think the takeaway currently is that this is the best h5 / longwave pattern we’ve had going into winter for nearly 7 years. How it all unfolds is anyone’s guess. I feel like we have a 65/35 chance of success vs failure this year given our new base state, which is a helluva lot better than the dismal chances we’ve had during the past several / consecutive niñas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 WB 0Z EPS does show about 30% of members that are normal to chilly leading up to Thanksgiving... something to watch while it is dry and boring... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 Not much of interest in the near term other than modest rain chances for some areas late this week and a chilly period late weekend into early next week. Outside chance eastern areas get brushed by a coastal storm off of NC early next week. Towards Thanksgiving there are hints of some change in the pattern, with a -EPO and a neutral/slightly positive PNA. AO and NAO look to remain somewhat positive. There is still a signal for a storm leading up to Thanksgiving. Still looks mild but might be our next best shot at some widespread rain across the region. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 11 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Doug Kammerer leaning towards the chances of a decent snowstorm or two this winter. Just released his winter forecast on the air. He's going nearly 200% normal snowfall for DCA and "3 or 4 Nor'Easters". He's correct, except for one small detail. His numbers are conservative. 1 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 Still no sign of a negative or even neutral NAO/AO. Not a good sign. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Still no sign of a negative or even neutral NAO/AO. Not a good sign. Stop it. Seriously. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now