November Mid/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

Just now, Ji said:

I only care about h5 on these seasonal models. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I only care about h5 on these seasonal models. 

looks like it’s mostly held serve. warm Dec, transitional Jan, and a pretty loaded look for Feb/Mar with a stout Aleutian LP, -NAO/-AO, +PNA/-EPO and split flow

[Terpeast]

On 10/30/2023 at 3:27 PM, Terpeast said:

Got tied up at work and then going to my kids halloween activity. Outlook gonna have to wait a bit. Sorry, didn’t intend to leave you guys hanging like TV mets do all the time…

As promised, here's my outlook:

 

[Eskimo Joe]

The new CFS weeklies keep the NAO/AO slightly negative through mid December/late December now. o_0

[Ji]

14 hours ago, CAPE said:

I only care about h5 on these seasonal models. 

thats all i had at the time...pulled it from some weenie on twitter

[Ji]

12 hours ago, Terpeast said:

As promised, here's my outlook:

 

this is amazing. Its like getting a graduate level class online!

[Ji]

13 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

looks like it’s mostly held serve. warm Dec, transitional Jan, and a pretty loaded look for Feb/Mar with a stout Aleutian LP, -NAO/-AO, +PNA/-EPO and split flow

i wouldnt say warm december. If you look at the individual members of the Cansips...there will probably be periods of cold and with way above normal precip forecasted for Dec--we could get lucky. Ive seen worse December forecasts lol

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

i wouldnt say warm december. If you look at the individual members of the Cansips...there will probably be periods of cold and with way above normal precip forecasted for Dec--we could get lucky. Ive seen worse December forecasts lol

I would take my chances with that pattern. it's just wise to temper expectations given that it's still quite early and it's not a particularly cold look

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I would take my chances with that pattern. it's just wise to temper expectations given that it's still quite early and it's not a particularly cold look

This is just a refreshing look compared to the last few years when you would have a 588 dm ridge over the east coast during the shortest days of the year. 

[Ji]

When are we going to start seeing precip lol?

[dailylurker]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

When are we going to start seeing precip lol?

That's what I was thinking lol. Looks pretty dry for the next 10 days at least. Temperatures look pretty normal. I can live with average. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

When are we going to start seeing precip lol?

Watch us have the right pattern but no jet this winter. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'm not so sold on a cold February. The last 6 February's have seen an abnormally strong -PNA, greater than you would even expect in La Nina. It's hard to imagine the pattern is suddenly going to reverse this year in El Nino, when there are no strong N Hemisphere pattern drivers right now. 

https://ibb.co/hysBNQj

It might be one of those cases where December and February switch roles in the PNA region. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Also, 2-3 days of cold then it's gone for 15 days. Nice Aleutian High popping up in a week. The pattern is showing signs of continuum imo. We have seen more +PNA's since the El Nino developed in April, but they are often transitory, and short lived. Will see if that trend continues. 

[stormy]

Thanks Terpeast!  I really enjoyed reading your in depth research and predictions.

Some are already questioning when the significant precipitation will begin. I use 2009-10 as one analog because of similar total positive values DJF. Precipitation in the 81 corridor was heavy in November and December of 09 after a dry October. October gave me in Augusta County 2.39". November 6.75", December 7.03".    My feeling is we should all be in a wet pattern no later than December 10 or we may have a failed El Nino. The MEI is currently quite low.

Regarding your in depth predictions.  A positive critique is the total snowfall regions.  I would have been inclined to follow the eastern foothills of the Blue Ridge with the 10 - 20 inch line from central Virginia northeast to north central Maryland. This would of course place D.C. in the 10 - 20 inch area instead of 20 - 40 inches.  I am accepting your prediction of a slightly warmer than normal winter to support my reasoning. BUT, if your thoughts about a KU or multiple SECS bear fruit, you may have it nailed.

Good Luck!!  

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Watch us have the right pattern but no jet this winter. 

Stop. Unless there's something currently to suggest we may not, why even go there?

[Terpeast]

36 minutes ago, stormy said:

Thanks Terpeast!  I really enjoyed reading your in depth research and predictions.

Some are already questioning when the significant precipitation will begin. I use 2009-10 as one analog because of similar total positive values DJF. Precipitation in the 81 corridor was heavy in November and December of 09 after a dry October. October gave me in Augusta County 2.39". November 6.75", December 7.03".    My feeling is we should all be in a wet pattern no later than December 10 or we may have a failed El Nino. The MEI is currently quite low.

Regarding your in depth predictions.  A positive critique is the total snowfall regions.  I would have been inclined to follow the eastern foothills of the Blue Ridge with the 10 - 20 inch line from central Virginia northeast to north central Maryland. This would of course place D.C. in the 10 - 20 inch area instead of 20 - 40 inches.  I am accepting your prediction of a slightly warmer than normal winter to support my reasoning. BUT, if your thoughts about a KU or multiple SECS bear fruit, you may have it nailed.

Good Luck!!  

That's also a reasonable guess and could very well be correct. I'm just a bit more bullish than your numbers for north of rt 29 and the I-95 corridor from DC to philly. 

And yes, we had a dry October after a very wet September. Also I don't think the STJ really kicks in until December anyway.

[Ji]

32 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Stop. Unless there's something currently to suggest we may not, why even go there?

i dont think its possible to have a moderate Nino with no jet...but we seem to do well at doing the impossible lately

[Ji]

Euro looks horrible to start December but I am liking this configuration for Thanksgiving

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We have been in this weird pattern of -EPO's and +PNA's happening with +NAO, and +EPO's and -PNA's happening with -NAO's. It's had a greater than 0.40 correlation since 2013, and 0.50 since 2019. I think our best pattern is the -EPO/+PNA/+NAO like 13-14 and 14-15, so I would watch out for that pattern probably for our snow this year. Stratosphere warmings could throw a wrench in that, I don't know how the Pacific would react or correlate in that state. 

[clskinsfan]

FOX 5 going pretty big for TV mets

[Ji]

FOX 5 going pretty big for TV mets

Is that for one storm?

[WxUSAF]

37 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

FOX 5 going pretty big for TV mets

I posted that a couple days ago. That’s below climo for most of us…

[Ji]

I posted that a couple days ago. That’s below climo for most of us…

I saw the actually article. It talks about blizzards in dc and then he posts this lazy map

[clskinsfan]

32 minutes ago, Ji said:

Is that for one storm?

Can you imagine Bob Ryan right now though? His head would be exploding at the possibilities. i am serious. We are gonna get smacked this winter. At least once. 

[Ji]

Can you imagine Bob Ryan right now though? His head would be exploding at the possibilities. i am serious. We are gonna get smacked this winter. At least once. 

We are gettting cold shots….we just need moisture and some blocking to sustain the cold some: I think we are 2 double digit storms

[Terpeast]

12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Can you imagine Bob Ryan right now though? His head would be exploding at the possibilities. i am serious. We are gonna get smacked this winter. At least once. 

I preferred Doug Hill over Bob Ryan. 

Ryan used to always downplay big storms and completely whiffed on Jan 25, 2000… while Doug admitted on live TV that he was “suspicious” that models were wrong about it going OTS. 

[WxUSAF]

Great blog on those euro forecasts for a week December strat vortex.

https://simonleewx.com/2023/11/03/whats-that-coming-over-the-hill-is-it-a-weak-vortex/

[clskinsfan]

17 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I preferred Doug Hill over Bob Ryan. 

Ryan used to always downplay big storms and completely whiffed on Jan 25, 2000… while Doug admitted on live TV that he was “suspicious” that models were wrong about it going OTS. 

Both are great. But when it was time to weenie there was no better weenie than Bob. When it WAS time to have a weenie breakdown. Bob would deliver

[nw baltimore wx]

I’m pretty sure Doug Hill was a PG cop that was a weather enthusiast. I’m not sure he had a met degree when he started on TV but am probably wrong. Regardless, I used to love watching him and Glenn Brenner banter.