forkyfork Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: and then a nice +PNA/-EPO pattern showing up around Thanksgiving. could definitely see some potential for snowfall with this setup looks similar to november 1997 1 1 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Weenie suicides if we get 97-98 again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 11 minutes ago, forkyfork said: looks similar to november 1997 could also say it looks like November 2002 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, looks like our typical post 2010 fall around the region. Endless summer into September or October followed by colder departures in November. This has become very predictable. Yup. I believe last November we had a cold outbreak around the 20th then it warmed up just in time for Thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 November 2019 also had a historic arctic outbreak in mid-month. I forget how much it moderated by Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: November 2019 also had a historic arctic outbreak in mid-month. I forget how much it moderated by Thanksgiving. Cold enough for early December snow before we torched 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup. I believe last November we had a cold outbreak around the 20th then it warmed up just in time for Thanksgiving November has been the only fall month with record lows around NYC since the super El Niño. But 17-18 was a much better winter into March than 19-20. New York-Central Park Area, NYPeriod of record: 1869-01-01 through 2023-11-13DateLowest minimum temperatures (degrees F) 11/8 29 in 2019 29 in 1886 30 in 1992+ 11/9 24 in 1976 27 in 2019 28 in 1971 11/10 25 in 2017 27 in 1914 29 in 2004+ 11/11 24 in 2017 28 in 1933 28 in 1926+ 11/12 25 in 2019 26 in 1926 27 in 1920 11/13 23 in 2019 24 in 1986 25 in 1920 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: November has been the only fall month with record lows around NYC since the super El Niño. But 17-18 was a much better winter into March than 19-20. New York-Central Park Area, NYPeriod of record: 1869-01-01 through 2023-11-13DateLowest minimum temperatures (degrees F) 11/8 29 in 2019 29 in 1886 30 in 1992+ 11/9 24 in 1976 27 in 2019 28 in 1971 11/10 25 in 2017 27 in 1914 29 in 2004+ 11/11 24 in 2017 28 in 1933 28 in 1926+ 11/12 25 in 2019 26 in 1926 27 in 1920 11/13 23 in 2019 24 in 1986 25 in 1920 2017 was a sign of things to come as that late December into early Jan 2018 was brutally cold… Probably the last true Pna -epo combo that favored cold in the east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 21 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 2017 was a sign of things to come as that late December into early Jan 2018 was brutally cold… Probably the last true Pna -epo combo that favored cold in the east Yeah, 2017 was one of the few Decembers since 2011 that was cold in the Northeast. The one common denominator with Decembers in the Northeast since 2011 has been warmth regardless of El Niño or La Niña. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/regional/time-series/101/tavg/1/12/1895-2023?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010 December 2022…30.2….+1.2….La Niña -PDO 2021….33.5….+4.5….La Niña -PDO…4th warmest on record 2020…30.9…..+3.2….La Niña -PDO…17th warmest 2019….29.0…..+1.3….Neutral 2018….29.3….+1.6…..Uncoupled El Niño -PDO 2017….24.2….-3.5….La Niña Neutral PDO 2016….28.3….+0.6…La Niña +PDO 2015….39.4…..+11.7….Super El Niño +PDO record MJO 4-6 warmest December on record by a wide margin. 2014….31.6…..+3.9….Modoki El Niño +PDO 14th warmest on record 2013….26.1….-1.1….Neutral 2012….32.4…..+4.7…El Nino peaked on Labor Day and went neutral with a -PDO….winter followed backloaded El Niño theme with Nemo in February 2011…32.7….+5.0…..La Niña -PDO….8th warmest December 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, 2017 was one of the few Decembers since 2011 that was cold in the Northeast. The one common denominator with Decembers in the Northeast since 2011 has been warmth regardless of El Niño or La Niña. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/regional/time-series/101/tavg/1/12/1895-2023?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010 December 2022…30.2….+1.2….La Niña -PDO 2021….33.5….+4.5….La Niña -PDO…4th warmest on record 2020…30.9…..+3.2….La Niña -PDO…17th warmest 2019….29.0…..+1.3….Neutral 2018….29.3….+1.6…..Uncoupled El Niño -PDO 2017….24.2….-3.5….La Niña Neutral PDO 2016….28.3….+0.6…La Niña +PDO 2015….39.4…..+11.7….Super El Niño +PDO record MJO 4-6 warmest December on record by a wide margin. 2014….31.6…..+3.9….Modoki El Niño +PDO 14th warmest on record 2013….26.1….-1.1….Neutral 2012….32.4…..+4.7…El Nino peaked on Labor Day and went neutral with a -PDO….winter followed backloaded El Niño theme with Nemo in February 2011…32.7….+5.0…..La Niña -PDO….8th warmest December So we are due for a cold one I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Weenie suicides if we get 97-98 again.... Too much of a Nina influence this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Early start to winter coming up ? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 35 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Early start to winter coming up ? Euro does not agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 54 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Early start to winter coming up ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Euro does not agree Eps does and Euro weeklies 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Just want to note that, and I think you guys are pretty much aware of it, the eruption (should it occur) in Iceland will not be anything that carries potential climate impacts. It could be intense and very damaging to the local population, but it will be a predominantly effusive fissure eruption as is typical over there. Now if Katla or Öræfajökull especially were waking up… different story. I’ve seen a few comments asking about the potential eruption in other threads here. But yeah, big danger to the population of Grindavík, zero intrigue as far as climate. You really need the absolutely massive and thus extremely rare fissure eruptions that have explosive components and the ability to get SO2 into the stratosphere (Laki, Eldgjá etc) to see climate impacts off these mainly effusive events. But this won’t be that, and they are extremely rare (only 3 known in the Holocene). 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 When was the last time it snowed? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: When was the last time it snowed? Jan 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: When was the last time it snowed? What’s snow? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 After a frosty start, readings should become slightly milder tomorrow. The warmup will likely peak Thursday and Friday. Dry conditions could continue until late in the week before showers or periods of rain could move into the region Friday night into Saturday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around November 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.63°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño. That transition continues. Currently, 2023 is in uncharted territory as far as the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly and PDO are concerned. The October ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.59°C while the PDO was -1.71. Prior to 2023, the lowest October PDO when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C or above was -0.36 in 1965. The SOI was -21.13 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.462 today. On November 13 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1628 (RMM). The November 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.739 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.9° (1.3° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 was there a particular reason people are weenie'ing forky i mean is that result on the table here or not 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 5 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said: was there a particular reason people are weenie'ing forky i mean is that result on the table here or not He has a long personal history here. The old saying you reap what you sow applies. Back to weather, cooler this morning in metro area than in BTV. Interesting! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 47degs.(41/53) or Normal. Reached 53 here yesterday at 3pm. Today: 51-54, wind w., variable clouds, 45 tomorrow AM. 41*(54%RH) here at 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 29 frosty degrees here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 Got down to 29 here in Patterson. Cold start but loving these freezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 Missing a good phasing opportunity this weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 Looks like the first half of November will be about 1-3 degrees below normal for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 29 with another freeze 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 29 with another freeze I don't think I had 1 yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I don't think I had 1 yet It will come for you after thanksgiving but before December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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