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Hopes for the first measurable snow of the 23-24 cool season for at least interior sections, and when will the first freeze occur at the various climate sites?  

Added the CPC October 19th November Outlook (click for clarity), to be verified on December 1, as we will do the same for October on November 1.  Reliability for the 4 week period with 6 week notice is challenging. Let's see what happens with these monthly outlooks.  

Verification added on December 3... basically looks a little weak on skill. 

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44 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Well, howdy there...

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This event has been appearing on some operational runs and on some ensemble members for days now.  The Euro had it at 0z as well.  I will describe it for what it is which is a talking point for now.  In any case there is the potential for an early season elevation event for areas well inland as we go through next week.

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8 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

This event has been appearing on some operational runs and on some ensemble members for days now.  The Euro had it at 0z as well.  I will describe it for what it is which is a talking point for now.  In any case there is the potential for an early season elevation event for areas well inland as we go through next week.

If it can happen here on the coast in November 2018 and Oct 2011 it can definitely happen in the mountains this year.

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The 0z ICON now has a legitimate far interior snowstorm for Wed - Wed night. Mixing to NW suburbs. Also a significant shift towards a storm on the 0z GFS. Most guidance has been ticking deeper, sharper, and further southwest with the approaching shortwave for the past several runs. Even if  frozen precipitation stays far to our north, this is a very trackable winter storm. If the 0z ICON or even 12z/18z ECM is close to being correct, this could be a decent snowstorm for elevated spots in the Catskills and Taconics. And there's still time for this to continue evolving.

The GFS still has further to come... the UKMET I think as well.

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The trend towards a higher impact coastal storm on Wed. continues with the 0z CMC. The cold pool aloft on that run now almost passes overhead. A quick glance at those charts in any winter month and you would think this was a snowstorm for NEPA, NNJ, SENY, CT. It's really only the surface to near 925mb that's a problem. Even the City would probably be upper 30s in steady precipitation. Highly trackable event after a long break from winter. Good 0z so far.

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Not yet buying into the EC-GEM-UKMET cold precip scenario for Wednesday morning in our NYC subforum.  Mainly using what happens here Sunday-tomorrow, as a marker for what happens here regarding the fast moving coastal option for early Wednesday. For now, imo, its the GFS NO vs the EC-GEM-UKMET-WPC wet (or elevation wet white) scenario for early Wednesday. 

I probably won't have opportunity to comment again til early Sunday.  10/28 639A based on 00z-06z/28 cycles including ensembles. 

 

 

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13 hours ago, wdrag said:

Not yet buying into the EC-GEM-UKMET cold precip scenario for Wednesday morning in our NYC subforum.  Mainly using what happens here Sunday-tomorrow, as a marker for what happens here regarding the fast moving coastal option for early Wednesday. For now, imo, its the GFS NO vs the EC-GEM-UKMET-WPC wet (or elevation wet white) scenario for early Wednesday. 

I probably won't have opportunity to comment again til early Sunday.  10/28 639A based on 00z-06z/28 cycles including ensembles. 

 

 

Still no change from my view to the above based on the 12-18z/28 ops.  I think EC is fading for early Wednesday, and so lthat eaves the Canadian still tying to hit us, and missing us early Wed and missing LI Sunday.   I don't think the Canadian will be correct. 

 

fwiw... showers all the way from nw of Scranton (Justus-Roba Family Farms) to Branchville NJ this past afternoon. RRFS/HRRR best modeling and mainly shorter term. temps dropped 13F out there between Noon and 430P near Scranton PA higher terrain.

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I think models are trying to say too far offshore for Wednesday (still tbd), but the CMCE and EPS still want to try for trace-1/2" snow cover New England-Catskills. Strong short wave no doubt, so I can see a band or two of snow showers Pocs/Catskils/nw NJ but not biting on anything significant yet for high terrain roads out there. 

Otherwise, no large snow threats looming, in my mind, prior to Nov 8.  After that, chilly rain possible around the 9th-10th.

 

As far as weekends go for the NYC subforum, a fast moving trough next Sunday might yield a band of light showers? Am not so hot on this as have been for today's action, whatever that may be.  00z/29 24 hr qpf ensembles as seen on tropical tidbits are very very weak on the next Sunday idea. 

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Good chance of some snow even for the coast in November 

Might be...looks can are deceiving beyond 3 days but certainly. colder than normal first 11 days of the month.

 

First freeze of the season this Thursday or Friday morning some of our interior CLI sites that Bluewave posted last week.

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9 hours ago, wdrag said:

Might be...looks can are deceiving beyond 3 days but certainly. colder than normal first 11 days of the month.

 

First freeze of the season this Thursday or Friday morning some of our interior CLI sites that Bluewave posted last week.

My suspicion is that we may see additional storm threats pop up in the shorter ranges (3-5 days) as we head into late fall and winter. We'll see.

Regardless of precipitation type.

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Looking ahead:  Yes I can see snow showers early Wednesday coating the Catskills/Litchfield Hills and maybe some Poconos above 1000 feet with 0.1 to 1" associated with the strong cold short wave (represented by the 5H vort max) passage.  Should be some snow showers to track up there.

Next Sunday the 5th might produce a band of showers for us in NYC. At this time not guaranteeing a dry weekend but the probability of rain is still rather low.

Late next week Nov 8-11. Models confused on short wave dominance and trough location but interesting, with the result, a small potential first 32F NYC if the surface wind is due north (350-360 degrees). Just too far away to know how next week plays.  

At least early November shows some marginal interest in winter weather.  

 

Will post, if no one else does,  the USA entire 31 day of October above-below normal T and Percent above/below normal precip. Probably won't happen till late Wed or Thursday from me.  I'll also want that attached to the CPC outlook on p1 of the October thread.  That's how I can gain confidence on reliability of long ranging.

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Good Halloween morning all! I hope it's good. Just a minor heads up for ne PA, Northern NJ northward for tomorrow morning-Nov 1. You may run into snow showers or a rain-snow shower mix, mainly high terrain Poconos-Catskills-Litchfield Hills, Berkshires and Worcester Hills. Could be a slight slushy accum on some high terrain roads (inch or less) and that mainly above 1000 feet, with coverings on the grass even down into northern and eastern Sussex County NJ to just north and west of NYC.  Also fairly obvious that while our first freeze in the interior has been delayed two weeks later than average, there is little doubt that it will occur this Wednesday-Thursday-Friday mornings. Take in those dahlia bulbs and portect your favorites. 644A/31

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