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Tropical Storm Ophelia


Rjay
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15 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Closing in on 2” with moderate rain now. Radar depiction is like a rotting nor’easter.
 

Hopefully this is a sign of things to come; I can’t remember if we got a single wound up storm last winter. 

Been thinking the same thing all weekend.  Would be absolutely glorious to get a nice, ol fashioned long-duration snow event.  Feels like forever since we’ve seen one!

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Via CoCoRaHs climate two day storm totals as someone else said 1-5". The 13.31 in sw CT is obvious typo. Southern Ocean County NJ had a 5+ and undoubtedly with more coming into Tuesday morning, some of these amounts will go up.  Many reports 3-4" overnight ne PA arced across just to the north of I84 in NYS-CT.

Modeling by the GFS for this entire event was woeful... just not very good. Remember early NAM etc had 4" Hud Valley.   Watch the NAM and RGEM for clues on modeling for the 28th-30th. More on that in the Sept thread. 

Screen Shot 2023-09-25 at 9.01.04 AM.png

Screen Shot 2023-09-25 at 9.03.31 AM.png

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Just now, wdrag said:

Via CoCoRaHs climate two day storm totals as someone else said 1-5". The 13.31 in sw CT is obvious typo. Southern Ocean County NJ had a 5+ and undoubtedly with more coming into Tuesday morning, some of these amounts will go up.  Many reports 3-4" overnight ne PA arced across just to the north of I84 in NYS-CT.

Modeling by the GFS for this entire event was woeful... just not very good. Remember early NAM etc had 4" Hud Valley.   Watch the NAM and RGEM for clues on modeling for the 28th-30th. More on that in the Sept thread. 

Screen Shot 2023-09-25 at 9.01.04 AM.png

Screen Shot 2023-09-25 at 9.03.31 AM.png

I did note no FFW's overnight... NWS win but imo, wasn't the best choice where modeling emphasized 3+" in 24 hours overnight. However, it is noted no big problems in that zone, to my knowledge as of 9A/25.  Conservative wins on my awareness concern. 

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38 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Enough now. I’m over it….

2.96" here so far. Yeah I'm tired of this miserable weather too. 3 days of chilly mostly light to moderate rain. Awful. I enjoyed all our storms during the summer but not this event. 

We did have that tremendous tropical downpour at 4:30 in the morning yesterday that gave us close to three quarters of an inch in a short period of time. That downpour was so loud that it woke me up even though we didn't have any thunder. I was half asleep but got up to look out the window briefly. I wish we could have gotten that one during the day so we could enjoy it. 

But other than that it has been boring miserable light to moderate rain for days. Looking forward to better weather. We should get some sunshine on wednesday. The models have been going back and forth on next weekend but right now they're showing the storm well offshore and a nice weekend. It's early but hopefully that'll hold. 

Longer range pattern looks warmer for early October. Would be nice to get some sunny days with temps well up in the 70s. 

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

2.96" here so far. Yeah I'm tired of this miserable weather too. 3 days of chilly mostly light to moderate rain. Awful. I enjoyed all our storms during the summer but not this event. 

We did have that tremendous tropical downpour at 4:30 in the morning yesterday that gave us close to three quarters of an inch in a short period of time. That downpour was so loud that it woke me up even though we didn't have any thunder. I was half asleep but got up to look out the window briefly. I wish we could have gotten that one during the day so we could enjoy it. 

But other than that it has been boring miserable light to moderate rain for days. Looking forward to better weather. We should get some sunshine on wednesday. The models have been going back and forth on next weekend but right now they're showing the storm well offshore and a nice weekend. It's early but hopefully that'll hold. 

Longer range pattern looks warmer for early October. Would be nice to get some sunny days with temps well up in the 70s. 

Yeah I could see us up near 80 next week and the gfs has an extended dry period once this mess clears out

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2.12 at this Wantage NJ location at Noon today, which is less than my CoCoRaHs neighbors. I think more coming into Tuesday morning and then again Thursday or more likely Friday NJ/NYC/Li. 

Not counting on the GFS again late this week regarding its progressive look, as it did repeatedly for this past weekend.  Does look a little interesting for the first week of October as well, but that is for another thread post later tonight or tomorrow.

Coastal flooding of some sort seems to be on the books every day this week for NJ.

Walt

 

 

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