jm1220 Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 54 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 100% This doesn’t change our discussion from a few days ago. We still never know when the euro further west idea will be correct The split screw dry zone from 2 days ago is showing up on radar for the NJ coast and will probably push into W LI. We’ll see how much of the coastal system rain can affect LI. So the models that kept that idea will likely be right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 Picked up 0.92" of rain so far today. Storm total so far 1.21" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 Radar blossoming south of LI.40 inch in the ambient so far today . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 18, 2023 Author Share Posted September 18, 2023 1.3" so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 Need to keep a close eye on the hybrid low expected to develop off the SE coast and move N/NNW end of this weekend into this weekend. While heavy rains are likely to initially focus well south of the area from eastern NC to Delmarva, they could eventually extend north into portions of the NYC metro area. The region doesn't need any additional heavy rainfall, after several recent flash flood events in early to mid Aug and again the second week of Sep, and another 1-2"+ today. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 1.22" here so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: The split screw dry zone from 2 days ago is showing up on radar for the NJ coast and will probably push into W LI. We’ll see how much of the coastal system rain can affect LI. So the models that kept that idea will likely be right. .27” at the wantagh meso. If the next batch misses to the east the southern Nassau precip hole continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 11 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: .27” at the wantagh meso. If the next batch misses to the east the southern Nassau precip hole continues. Yea that eastern Nassau/western Suffolk screw zone looks to see the local area minimum again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 If this rain keeps up and we continue to get below average temps, we’re in for amazing fall foliage, the likes of which hasn’t been seen in a long time. Get your cameras ready! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 18, 2023 Author Share Posted September 18, 2023 10 minutes ago, TriPol said: If this rain keeps up and we continue to get below average temps, we’re in for amazing fall foliage, the likes of which hasn’t been seen in a long time. Get your cameras ready! What below average temps? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 11 minutes ago, TriPol said: If this rain keeps up and we continue to get below average temps, we’re in for amazing fall foliage, the likes of which hasn’t been seen in a long time. Get your cameras ready! Last year around this area was some of the best colors I've seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 65 / 65 cloudy and light rain. 1.27 in the bucket (so far) since it started around 6PM yesterday. Stuck in the muck today and slowly dry out overnight. Heights rise and ridge comes around to a onshore flow Tue (9/19_ - Fri (9/22). Overall warm but onshore caps temps near 80/70s. Flow turns southerly as the western atlantic ridge anchors east of Bermuda keeping the coast in a moisture conveyer belt 9/23 - 9/26. COuld be wet with low developing underneath the ridge and slowly working its way up the coast. Very warm/humid and wet period potentially. Beyond there caught of a stuck up pattern keeps it potentially unsettles but overall warm/wet to close Sep and opn Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Radar blossoming south of LI .40 inch in the ambient so far today . That’s the coastal low precip that should hit the E half of Suffolk. As for us we’re mostly done. Euro fails yet again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: What below average temps? Only two days below avg at EWR this month 9/1 : -4 / 9/15: -4 NYC: 9/1 : -5, 9/15: -6, 2 days at -0.5 LGA: 9/1: -6, 9/15: -7, 2 days wihtin -1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 15 minutes ago, TriPol said: If this rain keeps up and we continue to get below average temps, we’re in for amazing fall foliage, the likes of which hasn’t been seen in a long time. Get your cameras ready! All of the rain now will likely cause muted/washout colors this year, we'll see. 1.17" IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 Long Island going to get lots of rain this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 Records: Highs: EWR: 90 (1992) NYC: 91 (1891) LGA: 89 (1965) first sub 90 record high since May. Lows: EWR: 42 (1937) NYC: 44 (1990) LGA: 48: (1990) Historical: 1926 - The great ""Miami Hurricane"" produced winds reaching 138 mph which drove ocean waters into the Biscayne Bay drowning 135 persons. The eye of the hurricane passed over Miami, at which time the barometric pressure reached 27.61 inches. Tides up to twelve feet high accompanied the hurricane, which claimed a total of 372 lives. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1941: One of the greatest aurora borealis or northern lights ever observed in the central Atlantic and mid-central portions of the U.S. occurred on the night of September 18-19th. The displays continued from twilight until just before dawn and were observed as far south as Florida and southern California. 1987 - Early morning thunderstorms in northern Texas produced wind gusts to 65 mph at Sulphur Springs, and 2.50 inches of rain in one hour at Commerce, which caused widespread street flooding. Bonham TX received 4.50 inches of rain which also resulted in widespread street flooding as Pig Branch overflowed its banks. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - A strong cold front produced severe thunderstorms in the north central U.S. High winds behind the cold front gusted to 92 mph at Fort Collins CO, and up to a foot of snow blanketed the mountains of Montana, with seven inches reported at Great Falls. High winds in Colorado caused three million dollars damage. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Hurricane Hugo hit Puerto Rico, producing wind gusts to 92 mph at San Juan, and wind gusts to 120 mph at Roosevelt Roads. Hugo produced a storm surge of four to six feet, and northeastern sections of the island were deluged with more than ten inches of rain. Hugo claimed the lives of a dozen persons in Puerto Rico, and caused a bilion dollars damage, including 100 million dollars damage to crops. Thunderstorms representing what remained of Hurricane Octave continued to bring heavy rain to the valleys of northern California. Heavier 24 hour rainfall totals included 3.15 inches at Redding, and 2.66 inches at Red Bluff. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 18, 2023 Author Share Posted September 18, 2023 8 minutes ago, FPizz said: Last year around this area was some of the best colors I've seen. Last late September and early October were quite cool. Like several days -10. Not saying we need that for good colors if we get average temps and rainfall heading into October we should be fine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Long Island going to get lots of rain this afternoon Another bust by the Euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Another bust by the Euro How? It did great with this event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 1.18" here so far. Nice soaking. Perfect weather the next few days. Sunny with high temps mid-upper 70s and very low humidity. Dewpoints should get down to the high 40s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: What below average temps? It's not getting any warmer than the 60s today. Low-mid 70s all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: How? It did great with this event I have about 0.33” and it had me well over an inch. This last batch might get me to 0.5” but the inch or more will be to my east. If any model did well it might be the RGEM. Scratch that, maybe HRRR? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 18, 2023 Author Share Posted September 18, 2023 5 minutes ago, TriPol said: It's not getting any warmer than the 60s today. Low-mid 70s all week. It's essentially going to end up average this week. Today had a warm overnight low to counter the cool high 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: How? It did great with this event It was supposed to rain most of today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I have about 0.33” and it had me well over an inch. This last batch might get me to 0.5” but the inch or more will be to my east. If any model did well it might be the RGEM. Scratch that, maybe HRRR? Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I have about 0.33” and it had me well over an inch. This last batch might get me to 0.5” but the inch or more will be to my east. If any model did well it might be the RGEM. Scratch that, maybe HRRR? You have a few more hours of rain left before the final total. As you said in your previous post there was always going to be a skunk zone which is hard for the models to place Exactly. The euro was the first model to see the costal storm and further west track last Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 14 minutes ago, TriPol said: It's not getting any warmer than the 60s today. Low-mid 70s all week. 70s is average for mid September… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: You have a few more hours of rain left before the final total. As you said in your previous post there was always going to be a skunk zone which is hard for the models to Exactly. The euro was the first model to see the costal storm and further west track last Friday Yep have to give the Euro credit even though it didn't see the screw zone. Euro was a little overdone but it had the right idea of this being a pretty significant event when other models were not impressed at all. We got much more rain than I thought we would. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 .75 and more to come . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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