September 2023

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

1.04 

We just never know sometimes when the Euro more westerly idea initially will pan out. Some of the mesos caught onto the better rainfall potential in NJ. We’ll see if the Euro idea of a slow moving and wet subtropical storm pans out for next weekend. This time the CMC is stronger, faster, and  more amped up. Always a challenge to determine whether we get the slower and weaker low like the Euro shows or the stronger CMC storm. Either way things look wet for a few days as rains could arrive ahead of low with inverted trough feature tucked under 1030 mb high.

[bkviking]

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

I have been doing pretty well here at my new place near KHVN. Got about 1.37 in about 30 minutes a week ago. The whole side of the parking lot flooded to the top of the curb. So the further east you go recently the better you have done. Just hoping I can see a snowstorm up here like Nemo in 2013.  Having a major ASOS so close by is a great benefit to knowing my observations  with better precision. My little digital indoor outdoor thermometer has been very close to the airport temperature. They may even radiate slightly better there since the ASOS and airport is in a bowl lower than the surrounding area with a big hill a few blocks away. Great little airport but it does flood in heavy rains or big coastal surges.

Wow Chris - you are no longer on LI I see! Still, New Haven is really just a stones throw from my ole hometown of Shoreham on opposite side of Sound. Btw, Original Pepe’s is better than Sally’s to me Lol . Ok - well we will just have your detailed weather observations from a little further north and east. I hope new location offers less changeovers  for you with a bit more latitude than SW Nassau screw zone you come from. 

[SnoSki14]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We just never know sometimes when the Euro more westerly idea initially will pan out. Some of the mesos caught onto the better rainfall potential in NJ. We’ll see if the Euro idea of a slow moving and wet subtropical storm pans out for next weekend. This time the CMC is stronger, faster, and  more amped up. Always a challenge to determine whether we get the slower and weaker low like the Euro shows or the stronger CMC storm. Either way things look wet for a few days as rains could arrive ahead of low with inverted trough feature tucked under 1030 mb high.

GFS moving in a wet direction for the weekend now. 

Some definite subtropical characteristics there. Overall pattern looks warm/wet with more muted highs and very high mins.

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, bkviking said:

Wow Chris - you are no longer on LI I see! Still, New Haven is really just a stones throw from my ole hometown of Shoreham on opposite side of Sound. Btw, Original Pepe’s is better than Sally’s to me Lol . Ok - well we will just have your detailed weather observations from a little further north and east. I hope new location offers less changeovers  for you with a bit more latitude than SW Nassau screw zone you come from. 

Yeah, I am very close to the airport near the shore but a bit north of where the Sandy high tides made it to. Areas just to my south flooded. We did the pizza tour recently and I really enjoyed Sally’s and Modern. Enjoying the colder mornings recently than my old area of the South Shore which didn’t radiate very well. The hot days also get tempered a bit here due to the cooling breezes south of I-95. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  67degs.(62/73) or Normal.

For next weekend the CMC leads with 3".     GFS/EURO about 1"-2".

Reached 74 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:  67-72, wind ne., Rain till 6pm., 61 tomorrow AM.

67*(92%RH) here at 7am-Rain. {was 70 at Midnight}.    67* at 9am.     67* at Noon.      68* at 2pm.      69* at 3pm.

[Allsnow]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We just never know sometimes when the Euro more westerly idea initially will pan out. Some of the mesos caught onto the better rainfall potential in NJ. We’ll see if the Euro idea of a slow moving and wet subtropical storm pans out for next weekend. This time the CMC is stronger, faster, and  more amped up. Always a challenge to determine whether we get the slower and weaker low like the Euro shows or the stronger CMC storm. Either way things look wet for a few days as rains could arrive ahead of low with inverted trough feature tucked under 1030 mb high.

100% 

 

This doesn’t change our discussion from a few days ago. We still never know when the euro further west idea will be correct 

[Allsnow]

1.36 mod rain 

[Big Jims Videos]

Could be a prolonged period of beach erosion/wave action coming on top of some small erosion issues from Lee's swells.  Luckily full moon isn't for another week after this event.  

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

100% 

 

This doesn’t change our discussion from a few days ago. We still never know when the euro further west idea will be correct 

I had an inkling it might be right when it didn't bail yesterday afternoon at 12z....and then the other models moved to the euro on their 18z runs....

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

I had an inkling it might be right when it didn't bail yesterday afternoon at 12z....and then the other models moved to the euro on their 18z runs....

Yeah, once the meso models came on board with a few other Global’s it became more likely. 
 

It waffled east at 12z Saturday which came me lots of hesitation 

[bluewave]

33 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

100% 

 

This doesn’t change our discussion from a few days ago. We still never know when the euro further west idea will be correct 

Yeah, that’s why I am hoping that AI can eventually hone in on which models will be correct in a given situation. Plus the Euro is going to upgrade the resolution to 4 or 5 km in the next few years. Just hoping they they can improve the convective scheme so we can get performance closer to the mesos at times. But not sure how running that kind of resolution beyond 60 hrs on a global rather regional scale will play out yet. 

[jm1220]

54 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

100% 

 

This doesn’t change our discussion from a few days ago. We still never know when the euro further west idea will be correct 

The split screw dry zone from 2 days ago is showing up on radar for the NJ coast and will probably push into W LI. We’ll see how much of the coastal system rain can affect LI. So the models that kept that idea will likely be right. 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.92" of rain so far today.

Storm  total so far 1.21"

[WestBabylonWeather]

Radar blossoming south of LI

.40 inch in the ambient so far today


.

[Stormlover74]

1.3" so far

[jconsor]

Need to keep a close eye on the hybrid low expected to develop off the SE coast and move N/NNW end of this weekend into this weekend.  While heavy rains are likely to initially focus well south of the area from eastern NC to Delmarva, they could eventually extend north into portions of the NYC metro area.

The region doesn't need any additional heavy rainfall, after several recent flash flood events in early to mid Aug and again the second week of Sep, and another 1-2"+ today.

 

[doncat]

1.22" here so far.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

The split screw dry zone from 2 days ago is showing up on radar for the NJ coast and will probably push into W LI. We’ll see how much of the coastal system rain can affect LI. So the models that kept that idea will likely be right. 

.27” at the wantagh meso. If the next batch misses to the east the southern Nassau precip hole continues. 

[psv88]

11 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

.27” at the wantagh meso. If the next batch misses to the east the southern Nassau precip hole continues. 

Yea that eastern Nassau/western Suffolk screw zone looks to see the local area minimum again 

[TriPol]

If this rain keeps up and we continue to get below average temps, we’re in for amazing fall foliage, the likes of which hasn’t been seen in a long time. Get your cameras ready!

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, TriPol said:

If this rain keeps up and we continue to get below average temps, we’re in for amazing fall foliage, the likes of which hasn’t been seen in a long time. Get your cameras ready!

What below average temps?

[FPizz]

11 minutes ago, TriPol said:

If this rain keeps up and we continue to get below average temps, we’re in for amazing fall foliage, the likes of which hasn’t been seen in a long time. Get your cameras ready!

Last year around this area was some of the best colors I've seen.

[SACRUS]

 

65 / 65  cloudy and light rain.  1.27 in the bucket (so far) since it started around 6PM yesterday.   Stuck in the muck today and slowly dry out overnight.  Heights rise and ridge comes around to a onshore flow Tue (9/19_ - Fri (9/22).  Overall warm but onshore caps temps near 80/70s. 

 

Flow turns southerly as the western atlantic ridge anchors east of Bermuda keeping the coast in a moisture conveyer belt 9/23 - 9/26.  COuld be wet with low developing underneath the ridge and slowly working its way up the coast.  Very warm/humid and wet period potentially.  Beyond there caught of a stuck up pattern keeps it potentially unsettles but overall warm/wet to close Sep and opn Oct.

 

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Radar blossoming south of LI

.40 inch in the ambient so far today


.

That’s the coastal low precip that should hit the E half of Suffolk. As for us we’re mostly done. Euro fails yet again. 

[SACRUS]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

What below average temps?

 

Only two days below avg at EWR this month 9/1 : -4 /  9/15: -4

NYC: 9/1 : -5,  9/15: -6,  2 days at -0.5

LGA: 9/1: -6, 9/15: -7, 2 days wihtin -1

[IrishRob17]

15 minutes ago, TriPol said:

If this rain keeps up and we continue to get below average temps, we’re in for amazing fall foliage, the likes of which hasn’t been seen in a long time. Get your cameras ready!

All of the rain now will likely cause muted/washout colors this year, we'll see.  1.17" IMBY

[Allsnow]

Long Island going to get lots of rain this afternoon 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 90 (1992)
NYC: 91 (1891)
LGA: 89 (1965) first sub 90 record high since May.


Lows:

EWR: 42 (1937)
NYC: 44 (1990)
LGA: 48: (1990)

Historical:

 

1926 - The great ""Miami Hurricane"" produced winds reaching 138 mph which drove ocean waters into the Biscayne Bay drowning 135 persons. The eye of the hurricane passed over Miami, at which time the barometric pressure reached 27.61 inches. Tides up to twelve feet high accompanied the hurricane, which claimed a total of 372 lives. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1941: One of the greatest aurora borealis or northern lights ever observed in the central Atlantic and mid-central portions of the U.S. occurred on the night of September 18-19th. The displays continued from twilight until just before dawn and were observed as far south as Florida and southern California.

1987 - Early morning thunderstorms in northern Texas produced wind gusts to 65 mph at Sulphur Springs, and 2.50 inches of rain in one hour at Commerce, which caused widespread street flooding. Bonham TX received 4.50 inches of rain which also resulted in widespread street flooding as Pig Branch overflowed its banks. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A strong cold front produced severe thunderstorms in the north central U.S. High winds behind the cold front gusted to 92 mph at Fort Collins CO, and up to a foot of snow blanketed the mountains of Montana, with seven inches reported at Great Falls. High winds in Colorado caused three million dollars damage. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Hurricane Hugo hit Puerto Rico, producing wind gusts to 92 mph at San Juan, and wind gusts to 120 mph at Roosevelt Roads. Hugo produced a storm surge of four to six feet, and northeastern sections of the island were deluged with more than ten inches of rain. Hugo claimed the lives of a dozen persons in Puerto Rico, and caused a bilion dollars damage, including 100 million dollars damage to crops. Thunderstorms representing what remained of Hurricane Octave continued to bring heavy rain to the valleys of northern California. Heavier 24 hour rainfall totals included 3.15 inches at Redding, and 2.66 inches at Red Bluff. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Last year around this area was some of the best colors I've seen.

Last late September and early October were quite cool. Like several days -10. Not saying we need that for good colors if we get average temps and rainfall heading into October we should be fine

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Long Island going to get lots of rain this afternoon 

Another bust by the Euro