Brian5671 Posted September 16, 2023 Share Posted September 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: NE trend has begun 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 16, 2023 Share Posted September 16, 2023 Up to 78 here off a low of 53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 16, 2023 Share Posted September 16, 2023 38 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: NE trend has begun Could finally be one where east of the city is favored for the heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted September 16, 2023 Share Posted September 16, 2023 27 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Could finally be one where east of the city is favored for the heavy rain. Blasphemy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 16, 2023 Share Posted September 16, 2023 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Could finally be one where east of the city is favored for the heavy rain. Yeah that's looking like a possibility. The 18z RGEM just has some light rain for us monday morning. The heavier rain for the afternoon with the coastal misses well to the east (central and eastern LI). Of course some other models get the heavy rain further to the west, so it's too early to call this one. Obviously we'll get a much better idea tomorrow. But no matter what happens with this monday, the weather for the rest of the week is going to be spectacular. Sunny with high temps mid to upper 70s and very low humidity. Probably the best stretch of weather for the year coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 16, 2023 Share Posted September 16, 2023 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: NE trend has begun We're straying from the WAR coastal hugger/inland tracks this year I see. Could be a good sign for winter if the WAR isn't as strong 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 16, 2023 Share Posted September 16, 2023 11 hours ago, bluewave said: Pretty cool how the early season nor’easter now forecast for Monday was missed by earlier model runs. So wet and cool pattern to start the new week. We’ll take anything that resembles an actual fall pattern. Eastern sections should be favored. So if this was the winter, better snows east with western areas missing out. New run now has our first nor’easter of fall on Monday Old run just a frontal passage 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 16, 2023 Share Posted September 16, 2023 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah that's looking like a possibility. The 18z RGEM just has some light rain for us monday morning. The heavier rain for the afternoon with the coastal misses well to the east (central and eastern LI). Of course some other models get the heavy rain further to the west, so it's too early to call this one. Obviously we'll get a much better idea tomorrow. But no matter what happens with this monday, the weather for the rest of the week is going to be spectacular. Sunny with high temps mid to upper 70s and very low humidity. Probably the best stretch of weather for the year coming up. Yup, of course 18z models look to be trending well out to sea with any significant rain. Guess we’ll see what happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 16, 2023 Share Posted September 16, 2023 why is weather forecasting so bad a few days ago we were looking a week to 10 days without any rain now that has changed quickly., 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, nycwinter said: why is weather forecasting so bad a few days ago we were looking a week to 10 days without any rain now that has changed quickly., Forecast reliability declines very rapidly going out beyond a couple of days. No one has a high skill forecast for even a working week, afaik. That is what makes the effort so worthwhile, it's a really hard problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Cirrus clouds on the fringes of Post-Tropical Storm Lee. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Tomorrow will be fair and pleasant. However, rain will arrive on Monday and continue into Tuesday. A general 0.50"-1.50" of rain is likely. In the medium and longer range, a warmer than normal pattern could develop in eastern North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. The SOI was -13.19 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.786 today. On September 13 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.663 (RMM). The September 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.721 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.5° (2.3° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 9/16 ACY: 79 EWR: 79 New Bnswck: 78 JFK: 78 PHL: 78 BLM: 77 LGA: 77 TEB: 77 TTN: 76 ISP: 75 NYC: 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 3 hours ago, jm1220 said: Yup, of course 18z models look to be trending well out to sea with any significant rain. Guess we’ll see what happens. So far the 0z models not impressed. RGEM, HRRR and both NAMs giving just a light to moderate amount of rain. Those Euro runs were probably overdoing it by a lot. Right now I'd say this is looking like a quarter to half inch of rain for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 3 hours ago, nycwinter said: why is weather forecasting so bad a few days ago we were looking a week to 10 days without any rain now that has changed quickly., Still a mostly dry 10 day period. Just 1 little period of rain (sunday night into monday) in the middle of the overall dry stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 https://twitter.com/ECMWFbot if you go through the runs it had the right idea most of the time except for a west shift that lasted about two days. if the whole setup were shifted west that could have meant an atlantic city landfall panic before turning back into a suffolk landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 21 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: So far the 0z models not impressed. RGEM, HRRR and both NAMs giving just a light to moderate amount of rain. Those Euro runs were probably overdoing it by a lot. Right now I'd say this is looking like a quarter to half inch of rain for most. NAM would split screw most of us with an initial round for the NW areas then the coastal low well out to sea. Other models have this split screw as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 4 hours ago, nycwinter said: why is weather forecasting so bad a few days ago we were looking a week to 10 days without any rain now that has changed quickly., The pattern is transitioning into fall. And yes in a very short time-frame we've gone from tracking Lee to tracking the arrival of an autumn air mass into the Great Lakes. The models are struggling. A few days ago the models were depicting a warm to very warm finish to September and start to October. It does not appear that way now. It could change again but I wouldn't bet on it. The endless summer is going to end. WX/PT 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Cirrus clouds on the fringes of Post-Tropical Storm Lee. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Pretty chilly this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 6 hours ago, forkyfork said: https://twitter.com/ECMWFbot if you go through the runs it had the right idea most of the time except for a west shift that lasted about two days. if the whole setup were shifted west that could have meant an atlantic city landfall panic before turning back into a suffolk landfall The GFS easterly bias helped it win the Lee 5 day forecast challenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 69degs.(62/77) or +1. Reached 79 here yesterday at 6pm. Today: 73-78, wind w., increasing clouds, Rain by 9pm, 65 tomorrow AM. 61*(70%RH) here at 7am. 66* at 9am. 69* at Noon. 73* at 3pm. Reached 74* at 4pm. 70* at 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 3 hours ago, Rjay said: Have to watch this during the winter. Euro is too amplified happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Dipped to 49 here this morning. UHI in full affect as Central Park currently 60. Good radiational cooling night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 6 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: The pattern is transitioning into fall. And yes in a very short time-frame we've gone from tracking Lee to tracking the arrival of an autumn air mass into the Great Lakes. The models are struggling. A few days ago the models were depicting a warm to very warm finish to September and start to October. It does not appear that way now. It could change again but I wouldn't bet on it. The endless summer is going to end. WX/PT Looks like the warmer minimums for late September will drive the departures with plenty of onshore flow and high pressure to the north. Could get interesting for heavy rainfall if we get some close in tropical development . Highs may get muted if we get a lot of onshore flow, clouds, and moisture. New run stronger blocking high SE Canada Old run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 51 chilly degrees here this morning 49 at Rutgers garden in New Brunswick @psv88 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 1 hour ago, lee59 said: Dipped to 49 here this morning. UHI in full affect as Central Park currently 60. Good radiational cooling night. 49 in Muttontown & 50 in Syosset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 1 hour ago, lee59 said: Dipped to 49 here this morning. UHI in full affect as Central Park currently 60. Good radiational cooling night. LGA still remains the undefeated UHI capitol. I also think the ASOS right on the warmer Sound/East River helps. The marshy areas around the EWR and JFK sensors helped them radiate better than LGA and NYC. Lows around NYC NYC…59 LGA….62 JFK….56 EWR…56 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 5 hours ago, Rjay said: Wow. Those were probably the same clouds from another location. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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