Rjay Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Pretty chilly this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 6 hours ago, forkyfork said: https://twitter.com/ECMWFbot if you go through the runs it had the right idea most of the time except for a west shift that lasted about two days. if the whole setup were shifted west that could have meant an atlantic city landfall panic before turning back into a suffolk landfall The GFS easterly bias helped it win the Lee 5 day forecast challenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 69degs.(62/77) or +1. Reached 79 here yesterday at 6pm. Today: 73-78, wind w., increasing clouds, Rain by 9pm, 65 tomorrow AM. 61*(70%RH) here at 7am. 66* at 9am. 69* at Noon. 73* at 3pm. Reached 74* at 4pm. 70* at 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 3 hours ago, Rjay said: Have to watch this during the winter. Euro is too amplified happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Dipped to 49 here this morning. UHI in full affect as Central Park currently 60. Good radiational cooling night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 6 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: The pattern is transitioning into fall. And yes in a very short time-frame we've gone from tracking Lee to tracking the arrival of an autumn air mass into the Great Lakes. The models are struggling. A few days ago the models were depicting a warm to very warm finish to September and start to October. It does not appear that way now. It could change again but I wouldn't bet on it. The endless summer is going to end. WX/PT Looks like the warmer minimums for late September will drive the departures with plenty of onshore flow and high pressure to the north. Could get interesting for heavy rainfall if we get some close in tropical development . Highs may get muted if we get a lot of onshore flow, clouds, and moisture. New run stronger blocking high SE Canada Old run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 51 chilly degrees here this morning 49 at Rutgers garden in New Brunswick @psv88 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 1 hour ago, lee59 said: Dipped to 49 here this morning. UHI in full affect as Central Park currently 60. Good radiational cooling night. 49 in Muttontown & 50 in Syosset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 1 hour ago, lee59 said: Dipped to 49 here this morning. UHI in full affect as Central Park currently 60. Good radiational cooling night. LGA still remains the undefeated UHI capitol. I also think the ASOS right on the warmer Sound/East River helps. The marshy areas around the EWR and JFK sensors helped them radiate better than LGA and NYC. Lows around NYC NYC…59 LGA….62 JFK….56 EWR…56 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 5 hours ago, Rjay said: Wow. Those were probably the same clouds from another location. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Bottomed out at 46F overnite here in the Berks. Currently 59F back home. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Euro is a terrible model 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Euro is a terrible model It only seems to be off with storm tracks near the East Coast. The temperature and teleconnection forecasts are pretty good. So not sure how much the crew at the ECMWF modeling center care about our local forecasts. Maybe they are willing to sacrifice some regional storm track reliability to achieve higher overall hemispheric skill scores. We need more modelers on these forums since the forecasters and modelers are two distinct groups. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Overnight low of 51 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: 51 chilly degrees here this morning 49 at Rutgers garden in New Brunswick @psv88 Yup, 48 here to start the new week. Didn’t make it into the 40s last week though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 quick rise back into the 70s. like a blip 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 17, 2023 Author Share Posted September 17, 2023 NAMs are wetter but screw western LI down to coastal nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Fall like day in Dillsbirg PA 65 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 41 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: NAMs are wetter but screw western LI down to coastal nj But 12z RGEM not giving much except for central-eastern LI and well to the northwest. Overall I think it's looking like a decent soaking, but nothing like what those earlier Euro runs were showing. Maybe we can get a half inch here. Probably have to go well to the east to get much more significant rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 17, 2023 Author Share Posted September 17, 2023 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: But 12z RGEM not giving much except for central-eastern LI and well to the northwest. Overall I think it's looking like a decent soaking, but nothing like what those earlier Euro runs were showing. Maybe we can get a half inch here. Probably have to go well to the east to get much more significant rain. Meh I'm thinking a quarter inch if we're lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Meh I'm thinking a quarter inch if we're lucky I think a quarter to half inch is a good forecast for our area. Looks like a meh event. I'm looking forward to the spectacular weather tuesday through friday with dewpoints dropping down to the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: quick rise back into the 70s. like a blip Welcome to September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Just now, qg_omega said: Welcome to September blip lows don't really count to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 73 / 57 clouds fast approaching from the west. So another 1 - 2 hours of this splendid weather. Rain by later this evening / tonight, already showers into PA. Rain tomorrow with trough pushing through. By Tue (9/19) heights are rising into the east with flow going around and onshore flow Wed (9/20) - Fri (9/22) . Flow goes southerly by Sat (9/23) wit an overall warm and wet look as the Atlantic ridge slows anything down along the coast. Could be a very wet finish, should the Atlantic ridge be stronger itll push heaviest rains west but current tendencies this year looks like coastal warm/wet tropics potential finish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 This is one of the nicest mornings we've had in a long time. I'm kind of disappointed I didn't go out and wander 'round in the woods for a few hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, gravitylover said: This is one of the nicest mornings we've had in a long time. I'm kind of disappointed I didn't go out and wander 'round in the woods for a few hours. I could only imagine how crowded the local apple orchards are today. Low of 49 here overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 49 minutes ago, forkyfork said: blip lows don't really count to me Thanks to radiational cooling and UHI, no blip lows in urban areas, just rural and suburban. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 24 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: I could only imagine how crowded the local apple orchards are today. Low of 49 here overnight. Lots of bees/wasps too! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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