Hurricane Idalia

[Normandy]

It’s not often you get something this well organized with this much time over jet fuel. impressive outflow in all quadrants.  It’s a beast of a cyclone in the making.  Still like near tampa for landfall but I’m seeing the east shifts that usually occur with these setups.  That’s being said there is enough rushing to the east to keep this north of fort myers I think. 

[kvegas-wx]

10 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

hurricane delta went from a tropical  depression to a cat 4 in less then 24 hours so anything is possible.

Ah!  Good call!  I agree, anything is possible.  

[MANDA]

Watch for little nudges to the right in future TPC updates.  Any nudge to the right ups the ante for surge into Tampa Bay.  Also watch for potential bumps up in the intensity forecast.  Will have a much better idea on both track and ultimate intensity by this time tomorrow.  Potential here for the most significant surge into Tampa Bay in a long time.  Much depends on exact track but not likely this is going inland south of Tampa to keep them out of a surge problem.  Next several model cycles with all the data from synoptic missions fed in should offer better idea on estimated landfall point.

[Amped]

The Euro is showing a rapid pressure fall right before landfall.  This happened with TS Gabriel in 2001,  the pressure spiked right before landfall, winds didn't quite have time to catch up.

[CheeselandSkies]

18Z GFS with the casual 2MB/hr pressure drops continuing for 24 hours straight. 

[Hotair]

34 minutes ago, Normandy said:

It’s not often you get something this well organized with this much time over jet fuel. impressive outflow in all quadrants.  It’s a beast of a cyclone in the making.  Still like near tampa for landfall but I’m seeing the east shifts that usually occur with these setups.  That’s being said there is enough rushing to the east to keep this north of fort myers I think. 

I’m very concerned over a potential Tampa LF. This storm is not on many folks radar and given it’s already late Sunday and folks go to school and work tomorrow means there’s less free time for any proper preparation 

 

 

[Normandy]

Explosive convective development ongoing.  This is so far ahead of schedule it’s honestly frightening.

[Amped]

GFS is been too aggressive deepening most TCs in the last couple years. I'm not discounting it given the SSTs

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Explosive convective development ongoing.  This is so far ahead of schedule it’s honestly frightening.

Still sheared to the south, agreed, though once out of the shear it’s bombs away. Just need to get a solid core to form

[Low Pressure Lunacy]

As if we don't have enough problems in Floriduh, here is another, just in time to make your hurricane planning much more of a nightmare. They put diesel in the gas, BJs, 7Eleven etc. This article has a list of stations and says "Citgo sells gas to BJs, 7-Eleven, and also some unbranded stations. FDACS will send a more accurate list as it becomes available."

Good luck to everyone dealing with Idalia.

https://news.wgcu.org/section/business/2023-08-27/potential-fuel-contamination-identified-at-the-port-of-tampa-swfl-stations-could-be-impacted

Gas stations in SWFL impacted by fuel contamination at the Port of Tampa; Citgo releases list

WGCU | By WGCU Staff

Published August 27, 2023 at 2:18 PM EDT

[Floydbuster]

Evening video on Idalia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adUFWl88kyM

 

[schoeppeya]

Finally seeing really intense sustained convection over the center of the storm 

[Hotair]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eric Webb

 

@webberweather

 

Fwiw, #Idalia's current analyzed minimum central pressure (SLP) on the latest NHC advisory is in the bottom 4% of all 35-40 knot tropical storms in this part of the Atlantic basin since 1970.

[TPAwx]

21 minutes ago, Hotair said:

I’m very concerned over a potential Tampa LF. This storm is not on many folks radar and given it’s already late Sunday and folks go to school and work tomorrow means there’s less free time for any proper preparation 

 

 

Ready to roll out of Zone A but yeah this is going to surprise a lot of folks.  
 

We’ll see if the Tampa Bay No Majors in 102 years streak holds.

[Amped]

The GEFS trended south, lots of members are supporting  tracks similar to the Euro, UKMET and CMC

[Boston Bulldog]

Dry air to the north still remains upshear of the storm. While this recent pulse is the most impressive we've seen, Idalia hasn't done much to moisten the environment ahead of it, as such this dry air will continue be pushed into and entrained within the circulation. Unlikely that this current convection over the center will maintain itself long enough to facilitate substantial organization before dry air eats away at it a bit.

[NeffsvilleWx]

Just received this:

 

Tropical Storm Idalia Local Statement Advisory Number 5
FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-280430-

Tropical Storm Idalia Local Statement Advisory Number 5
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL102023
615 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023

This product covers East Central Florida

**Tropical Storm Watch In Effect for Lake County**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Northern Lake and
      Southern Lake

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Northern Lake and
      Southern Lake

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 640 miles south-southwest of Leesburg FL
    - 20.1N 85.5W
    - Storm Intensity 40 mph
    - Movement Northeast or 40 degrees at 3 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

The center of Tropical Storm Idalia is located just over 120 miles
south of western Cuba this afternoon. Idalia is slowly drifting to the
northeast, and motion is expected to remain slow and possibly erratic
overnight, before increasing in speed to the north-northeast on Monday
and Tuesday. The storm is currently forecast to approach the western
Florida Peninsula late Tuesday into Wednesday. Preparations should be
ongoing for at least tropical storm conditions by midweek.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Lake County, where
confidence is highest in tropical storm conditions occurring.
Additional watches may be necessary for portions of east-central
Florida in future forecasts.

Moisture associated with Idalia will reach central Florida as early as
Monday afternoon, boosting rain and thunderstorm chances during the
day. Conditions will begin to deteriorate Tuesday afternoon and
evening as Idalia accelerates north-northeastward across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. As coverage of showers and squalls increases Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday, the possibility of strong to damaging wind
gusts will also increase. Tropical storm force winds are forecast to
extend outward from the storm`s center, potentially reaching portions
of east-central Florida, including Lake County, Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Based on the current forecast track, Idalia will
make its closest pass to east-central Florida late Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning, continuing northeastward during the day on
Wednesday.

While the heaviest rainfall from Idalia is currently forecast to fall
along the Gulf Coast and western Florida Peninsula, gusty squalls will
be capable of torrential downpours, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.
One to two inches of rain from Monday afternoon through Wednesday
night is expected for a large portion of the area, with locally higher
amounts possible. Locations in closer proximity to the center of
Idalia, such as Lake County in east-central Florida, may receive
higher rainfall totals.

In addition to strong wind gusts, a threat for tornadoes is forecast
to develop as the center of Idalia moves into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico Tuesday afternoon, Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

Combined swells from Hurricane Franklin over the western Atlantic and
the approach of Idalia will likely lead to high seas, rough surf, and
an increase in life-threatening rip currents. Eastward adjustments to
the current forecast track would also increase the threat for possible
beach erosion and coastal flooding Tuesday into Wednesday.

Do not let your guard down, especially in locations east of the
current Tropical Storm Watch. Impacts from Idalia will be experienced
far from the center of the storm. Now is the time to ensure your
hurricane supply kit is stocked and your safety plan is in place.

As Idalia becomes better organized over the next 24 to 36 hours,
additional changes to the current forecast are possible. Eastward
shifts in the forecast track would increase the potential for impacts
locally, so continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the National
Hurricane Center and National Weather Service in Melbourne, Florida.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
East Central Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across Lake County. Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the remainder of East Central Florida.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
East Central Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

* SURGE:
Direct surge impacts from Idalia are not currently anticipated at this
time. However, larger swells and surf combined with Hurricane Franklin
will bring a threat for minor coastal flooding and beach erosion.Locations
more vulnerable to coastal flooding and beach erosion, such as portions
of the Volusia County coast, should stay updated on the latest
forecasts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local officials for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 12 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Schaper

[WxWatcher007]

16 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Dry air to the north still remains upshear of the storm. While this recent pulse is the most impressive we've seen, Idalia hasn't done much to moisten the environment ahead of it, as such this dry air will continue be pushed into and entrained within the circulation. Unlikely that this current convection over the center will maintain itself long enough to facilitate substantial organization before dry air eats away at it a bit.

This x100. Until we can get persistent convection over the center and convection rotating upshear it'll be hard to build a core. Guidance does have that happen eventually but it may take some time. 

It'll be interesting to see what recon finds tonight. 

[schoeppeya]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This x100. Until we can get persistent convection over the center and convection rotating upshear it'll be hard to build a core. Guidance does have that happen eventually but it may take some time. 

It'll be interesting to see what recon finds tonight. 

Radar looks like it’s definitely attempting to wrap thunderstorms on the up shear side of the storm 

[Hotair]

@tbrite89 just said the following: 

IF tropical storm (soon to be #hurricane #Idalia) were to achieve MH intensity and make landfall in the area between Apalachicola and Horseshoe Beach, FL…it will be the first known occurrence in recorded history (dating back to 1851). For the area between Horseshoe Beach and Cedar Key, it was 1896. For Cedar Key to Spring Hill, 1950. Spring Hill to Tampa, 1921.

 

[Hotair]

Buoy near Idalia showing rapid pressure drop.  Storm could be intensifying rapidly

 

 

[NavarreDon]

Dry air to the north still remains upshear of the storm. While this recent pulse is the most impressive we've seen, Idalia hasn't done much to moisten the environment ahead of it, as such this dry air will continue be pushed into and entrained within the circulation. Unlikely that this current convection over the center will maintain itself long enough to facilitate substantial organization before dry air eats away at it a bit.

Dr. Cowan’s video has some great info on this!

.

[Hotair]

Storm surge would be disastrous for parts of St Pete and along the Tampa Bay region even if LF ends up being well North of us.   
 

11 ft in the bend would literally bury many communities in water along the armpit

  

[Prospero]

2 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Storm surge would be disastrous for parts of St Pete and along the Tampa Bay region even if LF ends up being well North of us.   
 

11 ft in the bend would literally bury many communities in water along the armpit

 

This was a 3ft storm surge in Gulfport, FL during TS Debbie:

[gymengineer]

Two things that make Idalia seem ominous: 

1) The forecast track adjustments for multiple advisories in a row is heading toward the biggest population centers, not away (e.g. Irma away from Miami, and at the end, Ian away from Tampa Bay).

One more eastward adjustment brings landfall to Cedar Key, and that track change plus any increase in intensity forecast would send the 5-8’ storm surge zone to include Tampa Bay. 
 

2) There was so much more notice for Ian and especially Irma (Cat 5 monster days away). Tuesday night, Idalia will be at the latitude of Tampa Bay. We’re going to be within the ideal start of the evacuation timeframe by the end of this evening. 

[dan11295]

Best case would be if it somehow came in South of Tampa Bay, mainly because it would limit surge into the bay plus would have significantly less time over the water.

As far as rate of intensification, as noted above you will probably see dry air eat away at the convection trying to establish itself for a while. Probably intensifying at the moment, but will likely only see short bursts of intensification until it can get rid of the dry air and get north of Cuba

[TPAwx]

8 minutes ago, Prospero said:

This was a 3ft storm surge in Gulfport, FL during TS Debbie:

TS Eta's endgame track across Cedar Key in Nov 2020 gave us 4 ft along Bayshore.

[drstuess]

CIMSS AI-RI showing highest likehood of 45 knots gain over 36 hrs. 1/3 chnace if much higher RI

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

[schoeppeya]

Storm has wrapped convection all the way around the circulation including the ups head side, not convinced it’s not off to the races

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

8 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Storm has wrapped convection all the way around the circulation including the ups head side, not convinced it’s not off to the races

Fading light on the vis loop shows a big explosion over the center.