Normandy

Maybe we can move all the other posts here? Might get confusing with 2 threads

Following this now. Look forward to the updates and stay safe to those in the affected regions.

Its not as simple as a Cat 1 can cause this much surge. This was not an ordinary Category 1 storm. it was extremely large, and on top of that was interacting with a very strong high pressure system. Those two elements created a strong pressure gradient that delivered a 200 mile swatch of NW 50-60 MPH winds that drove insane amounts of water into the FL coast. A similar Cat 1 storm (Katrina) was in a similar situation and evolved much differently as a storm with respect to storm surge. There have been several hurricanes that have greatly overperformed their storm surge values due to extreme large fetch of winds (Ike, Nicole, Sandy, etc).

This doesn't make any sense. Having 100 MPH flight level winds does not make a storm a hurricane. The lack of sustained 60+ MPH winds anywhere near the coast suggests this did not have 75 MPH sustained surface winds. It is possible for a storm to be stronger aloft and weaker at the surface. It is also possible for a storm to have weaker flight level winds and have the winds mix down better. Nothing I am saying here downplays Nicole as a storm.

Has anyone checked to see if Turtlehurricane is ok? I can't imagine the dissapointment. Storm underperformed my expectations....agree this was not a cane at landfall.

Appreciate yall

any good radar sites

Category 3 would be an extreme overperform I think. That being said, I think the NW fetch of winds is going to cause tons of beach erosion and surge damage on the E coast of Florida. Holding firm low end Cat 2, landfall between WPB and FL.

^ Agreed. Any deep convection and this is a solid Cat 1/2 cane with this structure.

Two things I am watching with this storm: 1) The structure is already such that it seems to be on the cusp of Hurricane intensity. I am wondering if intensity wise models are busting low 2) The motions of such storms under strong High pressure systems tend to trend more south than modeled (Ike, Andrew, Katrina, etc). If i were to make a call based on the state of the storm now and the two thoughts above: I say just north of Miami for landfall with Category 2 intensity.

Not gonna lie looks much better than I thought it would this early. Curiously watching today to see how it unfolds, these WSW moving storms can have interesting results intensity wise.

Even after 97L and Our soon to be 98L, GFS is showing two more systems. November looks to be another September in terms of NS. Season is the most Hot/Cold I can ever remember

I like a solution of getting close to FL and then getting shoved NE-NNE. Strong front coming in to sweep it up.

Extremely anomalous setup with a westward moving TC strike on Florida in November

November is the new October and October is the new August. Pretty wild how active November's have been recently