Normandy

The latest GFS now develops a second low north of the first one ahead of Sam. Leaves the first cut-off low behind and recurves Sam and the second together. Unsure how plausible this is, why would the second low develop? Would like to hear from a met

Sam is really going to work right now. Likely approaching major status

The CMC solution is definitely plausible, as all models have the same players on the field. The CMC is just further west and faster, thus allowing the ridge to become more of a blocking ridge and encouraging the phase. Is it the most likely? Probably not.

GFS maintains the idea of cutting off a low ahead of Sam, having that low be drawn SW while Sam pinwheels around it heading due north at landfall.

Appreciate the input. Lets see what the subsequent model cycles show

Can you explain this a little more? That's not how I am reading this and want to be schooled on how I am interpreting this. See tweet below for what I am seeing: https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1441137766515937280?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1441137766515937280|twgr^|twcon^s1_c10&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fstorm2k.org%2Fphpbb2%2FEmbedTweet.html1441137766515937280

Going to be very close if the Euro pans out. Cut-Off Low to the west with a ridge to the east implies a due north track after the run. Which of the two features becomes the dominant steering element likely dictates whether or not landfall occurs on the East Coast. Stronger low seems like it would send it more west, stronger ridge seems like it would send it slowly north before ejecting NE when the next trough comes in. On the next cycle!

The GFS seems to be creating to much spurious vorticity that is causing chaos with the track of Sam. I’m hedging my bets on the euro which has been much more consistent and reasonable

It seems like the delayed development is hurting us downstream as this doesn't find the first weakness north. Lets see what the next GFS shows but the Euro showing this consistency is a bit alarming.

Hate to gravedig but like I said in the 2021 Atlantic tropical thread this video is required viewing https://youtu.be/Ar8Usv-Kwvs

I could not locate the Dorian thread so I posted it here…. But Oh my ****ing god at this video from marsh harbor. Video is required viewing https://youtu.be/Ar8Usv-Kwvs

Instantaneous gust or not that still a ridiculous observation. And what exactly is the definition of instantaneous (1-second long?)? I don't know why but since you claimed you saw stronger winds than Josh did in Dorian I always view your posts as angling to keep Michael greater than "x".

If this shouldn't be named then what should be named? Does it need to have an eye or something? This complaining about naming of systems is getting ridiculous

From what I remember Grand Isle did get into the eyewall....Port Fourchoun was in the middle of the eye and Grand Isle is a few miles east of that location. Its fairly likely Grande Isle received the worst winds in Ida

Unless we have multiple C4 / C5 hurricane strikes on US soil....season ain't exciting enough.

The most certainly will get upgraded during the next NHC pakcage

This thing is crawling to the coast at this point. Gonna need to make some progress inland since models are forecasting a stall and turn east

Watching closely for any convective burst occurring on the western flank of the circulation. Radar suggests that the storm while deepening is still limited with respect to western Inflow

This would be nothing new to Houston. These 1 and 100 year floods are no longer 1 and 100 year anymore. This region of the country is used to flood events like this. I’m more concerned about this over performing from a wind standpoint. It’s generating a lot of vigorous convection which is usually a sign that over performing in intensity is a possibility

If your measurement of active is cat five hurricanes making landfall then sure I guess you are right. Problem is that’s not how active seasons or active periods are measured.

Im imagining that what we see now is kind of the upper limit for intensity with Larry. A cane this large needs serious juice to push CAT 4 or greater levels and I am not sure the waters It will traverse can support that. Would be interested to hear pro met thoughts on this. Never the less beautiful storm

Those who are a disappointed with damage produced need to give more props to human engineering and understand that Cat 4/5 hurricanes are not nuclear weapons. Many structures will survive these storms (even wood framed buildings). If wind damage in Mexico beach was worse, it is very likely building code related as Michael was not much more intense than Ida. neighborhoods being flattened are limited to only the severest of hurricanes (Dorian, Andrew, Labor Day, etc). Winds have to be greater than 170 mph before that can occur. Also got to give a shout out to those that designed and engineered the levees. They were tested and they passed

No matter the situation that New Orleans is currently in, you simply cannot argue that it wouldn’t be worse had the storm moved 10 miles to the right. Yes they got hit hard, but they could have gotten hit harder. What’s wrong with stating this?

Let’s wait until the dust settles before answering that one

If verified it would top hurricane Andrew’s 142 mph. It should be noted though that this measurement occurred before the worst of Andrew’s eyewall passed over Fowey rocks. Nevertheless epic storm Ida was.