Normandy Ho

I would focus on whether or not the models are showing weakening upon approach (which GFS seems to be showing steady state). The globals can’t resolve the pressure of these systems completely accurately. I’m sure mets can chime in on this

Milton bruh!

It’s just an enhanced area of convergence due to Milton’s circulation slingshotting low level flow NW and then rapidly pulling it back ESE. Many severe canes have these appendages but I wouldn’t worry about it affecting track or intensity

Milton putting on a clinic right now

stunning intensification. Another generational hurricane heading towards Florida (seems like generational is being used too much these days)

Deepening is so rapid that the west eyewall is stronger than the east. Tomorrow will be a very stressful day for Florida. And this is on It’s way to cat 5 status

Yea the southern eyewall of an east moving cat 5 scraping the coast would def be unusual for them. Any direct interaction with the Yucatán though likely removes major hurricane possibilities for Florida considering the shear present and movement over the cold pool north of the Yucatán coast. Something to watch for sure

Unfortunately the pattern is ripe for TCG in the Caribbean and movement north. Trying times ahead for Florida. The insurance industry there might not survive this season

Don’t show y’all’s ass this time

You just have to hope it comes in south of tampa. It will be very lopsided to the south and east so if you keep the major winds south of tampa you spare the most

I still like a south of Tampa solution. I think it’s going to get too far east before turning NE. If I were to make a call just north of fort meters at cat3-4 intensity

Scary hours right now in the ATL basin

If I am gauging the ensemble and op runs correctly, it appears a faster moving system comes in further north as it doesn't allow time for the mid-level steering flow to arc back ESE. A slower moving system gives time for the TC to get pushed further east than perhaps even ESE as the strong mid-level trough powers across the peninsula. You can even watch that flow evolve from the 850-400 hPa level and the mid-to-upper ST jet. That may explain why some of the slower modeling wants to bring this in down near Sarasota to even the Keys. Something to watch for with each modeling suite. I favor slower moving and stronger. South of tampa. Maybe even Miami dade could be involved. Very wild setup

unfortunately I’m bullish on this one too. GOM version of Lenny

Was gonna say it might be time. Starting to see a semblance of a circulation near the coast in the BOC

@Windspeed is correct. This storm was exceptionally assymetrical. To get big winds one simply has to be east of the center. The Cat4 winds were absolutely there though at landfall. The inland wind event does not occur if the cat 4 winds aren’t there at landfall

Putting on a show!

This was a rare hurricane where all three phases were deadly. - Deadly surge at the coast over a tremendous area soaking a hundred+ miles - Deadly wind that translated inland over hundreds of miles. thankfully said wind didn’t hit any major metro centers at the coast (which is the only saving grace of this cane) - deadly flooding which at this point is reach historic and unseen before levels

This is the modern era though. Losing more than 100 in a cane is rare. Losing hundreds or even a thousand back then not so much. Tech now saves lives and that same tech didn’t help this time which to me makes Helene more severe. If Helene came in under the same conditions we had in the 1800s the death tolls would be in the ten of thousands

This one is a safe bet to stay away. Too strong too far east and not enough ridging

The story is still being written and the dust hasn’t settled, but I’m going to wager when all is said and done hurricane Helene will be the most severe/devestating hurricane strike in United States history. The amount of people this storm has affected is unimaginable. if we were to go back in time when this was a naked swirl In the Carribbean and I were to tell you that this was the outcome: 938 mbs, 140 mph winds with the strongest wind passing over marshland, and Tallahassee unaffected. The result: 1,000 dead (TBD) and 120 billion in damage. I’d be laughed off the board. What this storm did is wild man.

Yep this is the ACE monster of the year

excellent posts by everyone. I personally believe that the high winds inland were caused by the interaction with the upper level low. Beryl had a similar setup and had similar effects, however beryl was a cat 1 while Helene was a cat 4. Additionally Helene was just much more of a monstrous storm, but would love to hear more thoughts on why the winds traveled so well inland

This was the potential of this season and now we are here. And nobody wants to say it or believe it but this next one will be strong as fuck too. Hopefully it stays small in size at least

There are some extremely strong winds on the east side off this system