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Normandy Ho

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Everything posted by Normandy Ho

  1. Normandy Ho
    The lack of numbers still doesn’t ease my concern. The ones that have formed have all found land. And one (beryl) was quite punishing. The models are showing a transition to more ridging as we get into peak season. The writing is still on the wall for a very damaging season. Season cancel at your own risk
  2. Normandy Ho
    Motherfucker that made me laugh so hard kudos
  3. Normandy Ho
    If by some luck this strikes Bermuda as a major, then the season this far would be incredibly surgical with respect to landfalls (beryl already smashing grenada as a five)
  4. Normandy Ho
    Disagree. This storm has a very odd presentation on radar and satellite. It’s almost as if there are two centers (one about To exit the carribean moving WNW, and another further south still moving west). Interesting to watch unfold on radar this mess of a storm is.
  5. Normandy Ho
    Something weird going on with this on radar out of San Juan. It looks as if it is mid level shear (echoes are being sheared SW as if there are NE winds blowing) . Now I feel like that’s not shear, but either way recon obs (horrendous SW windfield with little to no winds) and radar (see above) suggests a broad disorganized storm.
  6. Normandy Ho
    Still lots of work to do. Recon showing a giant gyre like structure with no coherent right LLC
  7. Normandy Ho
    The caymans have redic strong concrete construction too. Regarding PTC 5, still A long ways to go.
  8. Normandy Ho
    Still got some genesis issues today. Tons easterly shear, broad vortex, and lack of focused and concentrated convection. Got to watch to see how long this genesis takes. Until that happens I’m not totally confident in where this turn north occurs
  9. Normandy Ho
    The SNE threats always bring out the bangers in terms of shitposting lol. I wouldn’t say there is zero reason to be concerned about a US threat tho. A signal is there for a close approach. Got to wait and see but I’m thinking a coastal scraper right now if I had to pick. Intensity will be a wildcard because of land interaction with the Antilles
  10. Normandy Ho
    I think it be that time fellas and ladies. This one needs a new thread
  11. Normandy Ho
    Big rainfall totals will be seen there. Debby has a tail that is long and will train over Tampa as it moves NE.
  12. Normandy Ho
    Substantial velocity increases. No doubt it's in an RI cycle now. enjoy the show.
  13. Normandy Ho
    Yea its about to get nasty. Big tower coming in. eyewall developing on radar. Gainesville might get a very good hit from this (think houston in beryl).
  14. Normandy Ho
    Really starting to crank now. Velocities on radar starting to increase. multiple convective blow ups occurring.
  15. Normandy Ho
    Yep. A long loop can be created documenting all phases. genesis, vortex coupling, failed and successful intensification attempts, and finally now its RI cycle.
  16. Normandy Ho
    Good news is this one will be in radar range the entire time until landfall. Still think it starts to intensify quickly tonight
  17. Normandy Ho
    I’m in the camp of “intensity forecasts are way underdone”. Can’t rule out a major at first landfall. It’s way way ahead of schedule and deepening quickly already. Models have always suggested this will be deepening on approach, suggestive of a favorable environment. I am interested in where the stall occurs.
  18. Normandy Ho
    Think they might need to pull the trigger soon. Lots of low level turning now and A good deal south of Cuba too.
  19. Normandy Ho
    Yea I was going to say, the consolidation looks to be happening just east of grand cayman. Would a stronger storm initially be influenced to hook more hard right in this setup?
  20. Normandy Ho
    A lot of the vorticity seems south of Cuba this morning. Not sure it affects track too much but it may have more time over water if it consolidates south of Cuba while moving WNW
  21. Normandy Ho
    I think the takeaway is as the storm first approaches the coast conditions begin to get very favorable, and continue to be so as the storm stalls. As @Windspeedsaid land interaction is key. Upwelling also might become a factor if it gets very intense before the stall
  22. Normandy Ho
    Yessir! First call is a stall somewhere west of Florida. Complicated setup with blocking madness
  23. Normandy Ho
    Thanks for the opportunity brother but I’m not disciplined enough to keep the titles updated lol. It’ll stay as a TD in the title thread throughout its life
  24. Normandy Ho
    Very interesting scenario being pointed by the models. Lots of rain coming for someone as the storm gets stuck and trapped. The euro even has it moving SSE across Florida and then up the east coast. Might be time for a separate thread?
  25. Normandy Ho
    Still some uncertainty as there is disagreement between the big dogs. GFS seems to be somewhat caving to the euro as it’s abandoned the idea of sending this west after the stall. Euro still thinks this is an east coast brusher.
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