Normandy Ho

Great post. This is why it’s hard to automatically assume a storm will be impacted by shear once it has gone to pound town already. Hurricanes this powerful tend to have unexpected interaction with the upper level elements that induce the shear. Love watching these interactions unfold

If you don’t see the posts it’s because the mods are working bruh

Perhaps but I think this might be more structural changes. Shear doesn’t really kick in until it starts sliding northward. Like others have said shall be an interesting day to see what Milton does

Classic ERC ongoing. My worry is it’s too early (would hav even nice to start when it turns more north and begins to feel the shear). Let’s see what it does tonight

This bruh. You’re telling me we are seeing this shit AFTER helene? We fucked this climate up

Milton putting on a clinic right now. Posted for posterity but we got on record a 35 mb drop for this flight alone. Absurd and we are blessed to be watching this show

This is gonna break the GOM pressure record. It’s falling too fast not too

Bruh this hurricane is stupid dumb. Ain’t ever seen shit like this

I would focus on whether or not the models are showing weakening upon approach (which GFS seems to be showing steady state). The globals can’t resolve the pressure of these systems completely accurately. I’m sure mets can chime in on this

Milton bruh!

It’s just an enhanced area of convergence due to Milton’s circulation slingshotting low level flow NW and then rapidly pulling it back ESE. Many severe canes have these appendages but I wouldn’t worry about it affecting track or intensity

Milton putting on a clinic right now

stunning intensification. Another generational hurricane heading towards Florida (seems like generational is being used too much these days)

Deepening is so rapid that the west eyewall is stronger than the east. Tomorrow will be a very stressful day for Florida. And this is on It’s way to cat 5 status

Yea the southern eyewall of an east moving cat 5 scraping the coast would def be unusual for them. Any direct interaction with the Yucatán though likely removes major hurricane possibilities for Florida considering the shear present and movement over the cold pool north of the Yucatán coast. Something to watch for sure

Unfortunately the pattern is ripe for TCG in the Caribbean and movement north. Trying times ahead for Florida. The insurance industry there might not survive this season

Don’t show y’all’s ass this time

You just have to hope it comes in south of tampa. It will be very lopsided to the south and east so if you keep the major winds south of tampa you spare the most

I still like a south of Tampa solution. I think it’s going to get too far east before turning NE. If I were to make a call just north of fort meters at cat3-4 intensity

Scary hours right now in the ATL basin

If I am gauging the ensemble and op runs correctly, it appears a faster moving system comes in further north as it doesn't allow time for the mid-level steering flow to arc back ESE. A slower moving system gives time for the TC to get pushed further east than perhaps even ESE as the strong mid-level trough powers across the peninsula. You can even watch that flow evolve from the 850-400 hPa level and the mid-to-upper ST jet. That may explain why some of the slower modeling wants to bring this in down near Sarasota to even the Keys. Something to watch for with each modeling suite. I favor slower moving and stronger. South of tampa. Maybe even Miami dade could be involved. Very wild setup

unfortunately I’m bullish on this one too. GOM version of Lenny

Was gonna say it might be time. Starting to see a semblance of a circulation near the coast in the BOC

@Windspeed is correct. This storm was exceptionally assymetrical. To get big winds one simply has to be east of the center. The Cat4 winds were absolutely there though at landfall. The inland wind event does not occur if the cat 4 winds aren’t there at landfall

Putting on a show!