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Normandy Ho

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Everything posted by Normandy Ho

  1. Normandy Ho
    This is an absolutely generational hurricane heading towards Florida. The surge from this will be outrageous, and the inland wind will be astonishing due to fast movement. Incredible satellite presentation
  2. Normandy Ho
    Indeed brother. Everybody buckle up because October is about to be wild. GFS has the Caribbean cranking
  3. Normandy Ho
    Top of the morning folks. We definitely got a rapidly intensifying cyclone (and a gigantic one at that the windfield is huge). Seems like my initial just north of Tampa call is going to be too far east, but man the intensity call is right on. This one is gonna smack the panhandle hard and the large size of it might bring big winds well Inland into Georgia. Enjoy tracking this one everyone
  4. Normandy Ho
    Monster convective burst occurring now. Get your coffee ready folks tonight is going to be fun
  5. Normandy Ho
    Both things can be true: that is the COC and it’s still embedded within the larger gyre. I think this will stall for a bit then start creeping north before again turning wnw later today
  6. Normandy Ho
    Indeed that is the meso that makes this Helene. And with what hurricane John has done I am going extremely high for intensity. Cat 4 still just north of Tampa is my call
  7. Normandy Ho
    Going full on Otis. Needs to get inland right now
  8. Normandy Ho
    It seems as if the soon to be intense hurricane John (start paying attention now to the EPaC thread that thing is cranking) is pushing genesis for future Helene further east. Interested to see morning model runs but I’m starting to like a just north of tampa solution
  9. Normandy Ho
    @Windspeed no doubt, last night when I saw that convection pinwheeling I thought this one is something different. Now we have an eye about to pop. They need hurricane warnings for mexico. Major Otis vibes with this
  10. Normandy Ho
    This looks a bit stronger than 35 knots. When are they sending recon?
  11. Normandy Ho
    Starting to get a big westerly wind surge coming off Nicaragua. Gyre is starting to crank now
  12. Normandy Ho
    GFS is a goddam mess. No consistency (and I’m not faulting the model it’s just output is chaotic which might be indicative of the pattern).
  13. Normandy Ho
    I hear that. I guess I just figure pull the trigger since it’s obvious it will eventually become a TC (get ahead of warnings since you have to write an advisory anyway)
  14. Normandy Ho
    A PTC? Come on NHC be better
  15. Normandy Ho
    Upgrade is imminent
  16. Normandy Ho
    The MCV of the coast to me looks to be the catalyst. The further it slides east the more time over water this would get
  17. Normandy Ho
    Disagree on 94L. This should have already been a TC
  18. Normandy Ho
    Current motion def brings this over NO. Sliding way east now
  19. Normandy Ho
    Excellent radar presentation. Almost looks like a giant right moving supercell with a hook echo. Velocities are also very strong around the core. Seems to be ramping up in the face of shear
  20. Normandy Ho
    For sure. There is still a broad gyre but that center is tight enough that I think it becomes dominant.
  21. Normandy Ho
    No question this is the center. Very clear eye like feature
  22. Normandy Ho
    Was just about to call that feature out. Very obvious developing wave there passing through the windwards. Would be interesting to see obs and radar out of there
  23. Normandy Ho
    The explosive convection is telling. Ceiling is high for this one. If it can catch a positive trough interaction (and let’s be honest the more convection produces the better chance that happens) this could go nuclear. Look at the outflow in all quads. Upper level support is great. in terms of track im also east. I think this gets very strong and thus I think it gets yanked NE fairly briskly and feels that weakness. New Orleans would be at risk if this plays out
  24. Normandy Ho
    Very strong inflow coming into this new burst. Still have multiple centers though but the windfield on the west side is already stout. Very WPAC like look
  25. Normandy Ho
    I don’t have the charts to prove this, but this feels a hell of a lot like the setup of hurricane opal (but further west). Cyclone forms deep in the BOC and gets pulled north/northeast. I’m bullish on this one. I actually like the chances of a major out of this. The quality train continues
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