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Normandy Ho

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Everything posted by Normandy Ho

  1. Normandy Ho
    Monster convective burst occurring now. Get your coffee ready folks tonight is going to be fun
  2. Normandy Ho
    Both things can be true: that is the COC and it’s still embedded within the larger gyre. I think this will stall for a bit then start creeping north before again turning wnw later today
  3. Normandy Ho
    Indeed that is the meso that makes this Helene. And with what hurricane John has done I am going extremely high for intensity. Cat 4 still just north of Tampa is my call
  4. Normandy Ho
    Going full on Otis. Needs to get inland right now
  5. Normandy Ho
    It seems as if the soon to be intense hurricane John (start paying attention now to the EPaC thread that thing is cranking) is pushing genesis for future Helene further east. Interested to see morning model runs but I’m starting to like a just north of tampa solution
  6. Normandy Ho
    @Windspeed no doubt, last night when I saw that convection pinwheeling I thought this one is something different. Now we have an eye about to pop. They need hurricane warnings for mexico. Major Otis vibes with this
  7. Normandy Ho
    This looks a bit stronger than 35 knots. When are they sending recon?
  8. Normandy Ho
    Starting to get a big westerly wind surge coming off Nicaragua. Gyre is starting to crank now
  9. Normandy Ho
    GFS is a goddam mess. No consistency (and I’m not faulting the model it’s just output is chaotic which might be indicative of the pattern).
  10. Normandy Ho
    I hear that. I guess I just figure pull the trigger since it’s obvious it will eventually become a TC (get ahead of warnings since you have to write an advisory anyway)
  11. Normandy Ho
    A PTC? Come on NHC be better
  12. Normandy Ho
    Upgrade is imminent
  13. Normandy Ho
    The MCV of the coast to me looks to be the catalyst. The further it slides east the more time over water this would get
  14. Normandy Ho
    Disagree on 94L. This should have already been a TC
  15. Normandy Ho
    Current motion def brings this over NO. Sliding way east now
  16. Normandy Ho
    Excellent radar presentation. Almost looks like a giant right moving supercell with a hook echo. Velocities are also very strong around the core. Seems to be ramping up in the face of shear
  17. Normandy Ho
    For sure. There is still a broad gyre but that center is tight enough that I think it becomes dominant.
  18. Normandy Ho
    No question this is the center. Very clear eye like feature
  19. Normandy Ho
    Was just about to call that feature out. Very obvious developing wave there passing through the windwards. Would be interesting to see obs and radar out of there
  20. Normandy Ho
    The explosive convection is telling. Ceiling is high for this one. If it can catch a positive trough interaction (and let’s be honest the more convection produces the better chance that happens) this could go nuclear. Look at the outflow in all quads. Upper level support is great. in terms of track im also east. I think this gets very strong and thus I think it gets yanked NE fairly briskly and feels that weakness. New Orleans would be at risk if this plays out
  21. Normandy Ho
    Very strong inflow coming into this new burst. Still have multiple centers though but the windfield on the west side is already stout. Very WPAC like look
  22. Normandy Ho
    I don’t have the charts to prove this, but this feels a hell of a lot like the setup of hurricane opal (but further west). Cyclone forms deep in the BOC and gets pulled north/northeast. I’m bullish on this one. I actually like the chances of a major out of this. The quality train continues
  23. Normandy Ho
    ^not sure about the inhibiting factors. The models are showing the deepening fast as it accelerates NE. The fast NE motion might yield a more positive interaction with the jet streak to its north (less shear)
  24. Normandy Ho
    If I’m a betting man I’m thinking eastern LA. I like the idea of a sharper hook east
  25. Normandy Ho
    Think they need to pull the trigger on this one. Very evident circ with deep convection now.
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