Normandy Ho

Not seeing the juice with this one. Interesting how the euro and GFS seem to be split in two camps with respect to ultimate track

I think compared to this board the level of expertise and knowledgeable posters is just severely lacking over there. Additionally the moderators are absolutely childish and squash any and every inkling of disagreement. They treat posters like they are children which is ….. yea not for me. I was a longtime member there and when I found this place I never posted there again

You are doing the good work sir of sifting through the garbage to find the good stuff for us over here. You should get chris / wxman57 to come over here. That board is a wasteland What’s weird about this disturbance is…..where is it? I looked at satellite and there’s just jack shit out there. Gonna be interesting to see this unfold because the models are clearly latching onto something. Seems like a pattern for some kind of recurve near the east coast?

I do think overall numbers will underperform. I think I called for 26 total but I’m bringing that down a bit. I still think we get tons and tons of majors though

Gotta love the mini hurricane looking tornadic tropical supercells

Yep beryl is wreaking havoc on the south today. Some of these hooks are scary

Tornado outbreak occurring in N LA and Texas.

I think the upper dynamics are so incredible that’s it’s basically turning this system into an inland hurricane. Family in Houston still can’t go outside because the winds are so strong

HUGE inland wind event still ongoing. Family still texting me I. Houston asking when the winds will stop. Just a monster of a storm

Family is ok but they all agree this is the scariest hurricane they have ever experienced. Fortunate does not even begin to describe how the upper Texas coast should feel. The way this thing was deepening at landfall even six more hours over water and we get monster hurricane winds well inland. Wild storm and good riddance. Enjoy your retirement.

The radar velocity data from Corpus Christi is very telling. The core of this hurricane is gigantic. There are portions of the southern eyewall well offshore with similar velocities as those near matagorda right now. Gonna be a long long night and morning.

Center now has 3 mesos rotating around it. Intensifying VERY fast. Frictional convergence might make things worse. This will be as bad as the derecho last month for Houston (and likely worse). Radar velocities steadily rising. Gonna be rough for my home city. Could have been worse though.

yep starting to crank just a little bit. family down near lake jackson says its getting windy.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm3&zoom=&time= The stronger this storm gets the more its going to be pushed NNE. the slowdown and due north center fix is interesting and might indicate this might be happening. Seeing zero gains longitudinally now and still due south of houston. gotta keep watching. Additionally, looks like we got a big meso on the south side again. lets see what happens as it rotates around.

Also NNE if previous fix. Have to watch closely over the next few hours. This might be feeling the trough more than expected (which is great for Houston if true)

That and an east slide. One thing I’m watching…….the storm is due south of Houston and intensifying. The trough is digging and will start to influence beryl. I’m not seeing this getting far enough west to matagorda from its current position

@40/70 Benchmark I think you hit your 95 mph call. there are signs that Beryl is starting to deepen. Velocity on radar is increasing, big blow up / meso on the south side is rotating around, and potential new hot towers on the north side are firing. I do think its too late for a major but 95 mph might still be possible.

Let’s see what this big meso on the south side can do. Thankfully thus far beryl has behaved

Morning trends are not the friend of houston. It would appear the turn north has already started and there won’t be much more westward progress. Looks very likely to come ashore east of Matagorda bay, somewhere west of Galveston bay. This puts all of metro Houston in the Eastern eyewall. regarding intensity. It’s got 24 hours till landfall, incredible conditions for rapid intensification (especially aloft). It’s currently sitting at 988 or so. Given the time over water and favorable conditions, a landfall in the 960s is not out of the questions. Given the broad core, not sure the winds that translates too (maybe 100-115 mph). Will begin updating family and friends and checking in them in Houston.

So you quoted me to simply repeat what I said lol. Cool. It was more eloquent at least.

^i feel you. Now is the time to banter tho as beryl is in the middle of the ocean. Once we get closer to game time / landfall the banter will slow

I think you are analyzing this the wrong way. It’s not the beryl is a sentient being that can overcome shear at will. Beryl has a certain relationship with shear that, frankly, models and Mets missed (and that’s fine, happens). What that relationship is I don’t know. But during this storms life it’s always been in a high shear environment and thrived (and still is btw). Each storm is different, and this one does well with shear. Others don’t. To your point though, can’t use past success to predict future success for beryl. What happened in the carribean is in the past

I think because this storm has been so unpredictable thus far in the face of adverse conditions, I get where Ryan Maue and Eric Webb are coming from. It’s not the same condition as Harvey, but Harvey also wasn’t a north moving storm with a HELLISH jet stream to the north. There are also very high CAPE values in the new gulf as well. Both could potentially really help this storm fire deep convection and ventilate it well. I honestly have no idea how intense it will be. I think the cap is a major but that’s also dependent on track (does it move further up the coast and get more time over water?). Just gotta watch and see, I don’t envy the NHC with this storm (and they have done great so far)

This bruh. Legit don’t understand at all what the fuck is going on with this stupid storm