Normandy Ho

Jesus man this storm is either gonna hit y’all and be the end of y’all. Or miss y’all and be the end of y’all. These models are wild!

Yea this is the weeds in here if you want science go to the tropical analysis thread

I see why he melted down lol as a causal observer y’all fools are crazy. everybody and they momma here want another 38, and y’all gaslighting people who are interested as if y’all aren’t is wild lol

Preach!

The mental gymnastics you all are performing with this storm is hilarious. You can tell it’s been a while for y’all. Enjoy this one!

The more I analyze the Euro and the current setting...Its solution makes sense and I see how it could play out. Currently The following things are happening: - Lee is a powerful major hurricane that is dealing with shear, but is also connected to a poleward outflow jet that is providing excellent divergence (thus the explosive convection). - Margot is a weak disorganized TS that is being substantially sheared by Lee's outflow jet. This shear will only strengthen tomorrow once Lee intensifies further. Convection will always keep Margot's low east because of said shear. This will increase the distance between them and is why the Euro solution occurs. Looking forward to the models runs later today.

Margot is the key to Lee impacting land. Models that have enough separation between the two systems threaten either Canada or NE. The timing of troughs will depend on which one that is, but if Margot is not close enough to draw this more east once it turns north I like this setup for landfall.

Models with the most degrees of separation between Margot and Lee are the ones that’s strike land. Not a surprising run there

Whats interesting is the lighting around the core shows a westward drift.

To answer your question without a weenie tag….you basically need a landfall south of jersey with the cane moving north. Once the cane is passing east and moving north cane conditions go out the window even if it passes close. Go see what the conditions were in NYC when the 1938 cane passed just east. TS winds (and that was the mother of NE canes)

Anybody got any insight into why recons is doing multiple rapid fire passes like they are? I’m not objecting because hey more data the better but this is a bit unusual no?

Alright gentlemen it’s that time. Let’s make our calls for what recon finds. I’m going with: winds: 144 kts flight level Pressure: 929 mbs

This storm is going to cost people memberships lol. It’s gonna get real crazy in the next few days and Godspeed to mods in the main thread lmao

The system to the east of Lee the GFS is developing is an issue. It’s boosting ridging in top of Lee, which is pushing it further west

The coffers are full in the ATL and El Niño is getting the Turkey shit kicked out of it

While it certainly has good vorticity it’s still very broad. This curved band is interesting on its west side

If we are being honest this is a pretty good setup for an east coast strike. Blocking high to the NE and big hurricane moving NW. the only thing missing is a strong trough to pull it in, but I think the signal is there for a stressful few days upcoming.

Might as well go ahead and start the banter thread now lol

I would argue we have a pattern for a north oriented recurve. There is a blocking high to the storms NE, it just does not have a strong trough to tug it in to the coast. Still so much to be determined there. More interesting to me than long term track are short term trends. The storm is still very broad and moving quite quickly west. ASCAT just hit the system and shows it near 11N.

Now THAT is a a micro cane!

The only mildly interesting thing to watch is if Idalia gets off the coast earlier and / or unexpectedly depeens. Other than that the main show ended and everyone is decompressing I’m sure.

I was going to mention this is hauling east now. Will be interesting to see if it’s a trend or just a speed bump. If I’m in Tallahassee i feel good now though

Monster storm! Radar presentation in the eyewall is off the charts right now. Cell motion being sucked into the NW eyewall is crazy to see. Will be a pleasure tracking with you all tonight

The first pass is interesting because it’s suggestive of a storm that is extremely imbalanced but not necessarily weak. Large swatch of strong flight level winds and the wind gradient was steep exiting into the SE eyewall. As this burst continues will be interesting to see winds in the other quads.

franklin’s spike in intensity has strengthened the ridge between Idalia and itself, which is pushing Idalia further left in the short term. If I’m in Tallahassee I’m a bit nervous. As it’s been stated the storm is looking excellent and is most certainly going to strike as a major. Only question is how strong (and I’m seeing upper cat 4)