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Normandy Ho

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Everything posted by Normandy Ho

  1. Normandy Ho
    Category 3 would be an extreme overperform I think. That being said, I think the NW fetch of winds is going to cause tons of beach erosion and surge damage on the E coast of Florida. Holding firm low end Cat 2, landfall between WPB and FL.
  2. Normandy Ho
    ^ Agreed. Any deep convection and this is a solid Cat 1/2 cane with this structure.
  3. Normandy Ho
    Two things I am watching with this storm: 1) The structure is already such that it seems to be on the cusp of Hurricane intensity. I am wondering if intensity wise models are busting low 2) The motions of such storms under strong High pressure systems tend to trend more south than modeled (Ike, Andrew, Katrina, etc). If i were to make a call based on the state of the storm now and the two thoughts above: I say just north of Miami for landfall with Category 2 intensity.
  4. Normandy Ho
    Not gonna lie looks much better than I thought it would this early. Curiously watching today to see how it unfolds, these WSW moving storms can have interesting results intensity wise.
  5. Normandy Ho
    Even after 97L and Our soon to be 98L, GFS is showing two more systems. November looks to be another September in terms of NS. Season is the most Hot/Cold I can ever remember
  6. Normandy Ho
    I like a solution of getting close to FL and then getting shoved NE-NNE. Strong front coming in to sweep it up.
  7. Normandy Ho
    Extremely anomalous setup with a westward moving TC strike on Florida in November
  8. Normandy Ho
    November is the new October and October is the new August. Pretty wild how active November's have been recently
  9. Normandy Ho
    I think we might have a chance to hit the NS forecast considering how active November seems to be forecasted. I think we don't get much quality though (maybe one hurricane / major with a handful of TS/STS).
  10. Normandy Ho
    I am going to vote TC. Looks like there is some kind of Low down there.
  11. Normandy Ho
    Think there could be a case for a post season upgrade in landfall intensity. If we got legit 75mph sustained on land in the south eyewall, landfall intensity is likely a little more than 75 knots.
  12. Normandy Ho
    I am also interested in that developing system to the WSW of Julia near Panama...Wonder if we get some kind of fujiwhara action or does Julia eventually absorb that system?
  13. Normandy Ho
    Agree. Unless there is a magical center redevelopment north I think this one stays buried low. Lets see how it evolves today.
  14. Normandy Ho
    Still very much in the formative stages but you can see it’s there. Lots of inflow on the south and west side into the MLC. I’d wager by tomorrow morning we have a TD.
  15. Normandy Ho
    As more time passes that vort is looking more like an eddy. the real show is SE.
  16. Normandy Ho
    The thing off Nicaragua is interesting. Might be a sleeper system
  17. Normandy Ho
    Yea the UKMET won this storm by miles
  18. Normandy Ho
    you can do whatever you want as a land owner. Just do not dip into state and federal funds to rebuild. This includes road access, infrastructure, etc. that’s what the solution should be (because not building near the water is not even an option for us stupid humans)
  19. Normandy Ho
    Could not agree more. Their aversion to extreme track changes between advisories and reliance on the GFS rendered their performance in this storm fairly poor for their standards
  20. Normandy Ho
    Like I said in the Ian thread, this hurricane season might change things for Florida and how they operate with respect to development on coastlines. All of those lows I imagine get dragged north by something.
  21. Normandy Ho
    Good riddance to Ian. One of the wildest storms I’ve ever tracked. There are so many lessons to be learned from all agencies / weather enthusiasts from this storm. one last note to add: the comparison of charley and Ian is such a great case study of how size really really matters, and how two category 4 150 mph storms are not the same animal.
  22. Normandy Ho
    Florida either needs to implement policy changes and building codes that prohibit construction in surge zones, or they will have an insurance crisis. These storms are not going away and are getting more frequent. Time to stop putting our heads in the sand.
  23. Normandy Ho
    NC/SC Border. 110 MPH.
  24. Normandy Ho
    Andrew’s only gift to Florida is the new building codes it created. Regarding Ian, it’s structure is that of a superstorm or intense extra tropical low. Is it possible for Ian to attain category 2/3 intensity with such a structure? Would like a Mets thoughts
  25. Normandy Ho
    We are at 8/4/2 and have no idea how active October and November are going to be. A season busting is not one that falls a bit short of expectations. People need to stop this whole “need to make a claim first just so I can be the first to say if and be right” mentality. It’s makes you look stupid. if we are at thanksgiving eating turkey and sitting on 11/5/2….. that’s a bust
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