Normandy Ho

95L looks very classifiable to me. Small but very well defined circulation with persistent convection.

Data from the ECMWF and UKMet in Dr. Knolls superblend are still suggestive of an active hurricane season despite the El Niño. Still guessing we get a lot of named systems but perhaps not a lot of strong ones.

We have already had three named storms though. Not seeing anything right now that would suggest anything different from two weeks ago? Are you seeing different forecasts coming out that suggest a lower than normal season (well lower than predicted I guess)

The storm is completely decoupled at the mid and low levels it appears. Interesting note by the NHC there on the recon data which seems to support this.

That's wild! Would those be considered separate tornadoes or multi-vortex? Kind of blurs the line at times. Thanks for sharing.

93L has two vorticity centers…one around 10N which is being used to designate/track the invest. And another near 5 N. Should be fun to track. Crazy how much activity there is this early

The wave behind 92L looks just as good right now. We might have 2 MDR systems come this time tomorrow.

GFS is showing a gyre like system that dominates the gulf for the near future. Interesting to see how that feature develops. Seems like it would be a crazy rainmaker for the south. The “phantom” is now a strung out mess that gets absorbed into the aforementioned gyre

It’s not on an island though. The euro also shows this vorticity now. The timeframe has been consistent as well. I hear the GFS produces phantoms but one needs to look at all the evidence before just blabbering “phantom”. It’s lazy analysis

while the MDR system is interesting, the WCAR system is the one we should be watching. GFS looks like it’s gonna win huge with this one, lots of people discarded it’s solutions and laughed.

GFS very consistent run to run….having a higher confidence this isn’t a phantom

The system is heavily sheared but has good vorticity and likely will keep generating strong convection in the eastern quad. I think recon will eventually find the winds to upgrade it at some point me. Nothing major but I see a low end TS out of this. as mentioned before the motion is interesting and atypical for june.

This one looks like it might get classified

Wild mesovortex action going on this storm!

What’s even more maddening to me is their description of EF-5. The wording they use they don’t even follow during their damage assessment. It does not mention these anchor bolts they always use as reason to not give the EF-5 rating. If they would just simply follow their own words as a guide would immediately get better results when rating these tornadoes.

Great post. Damage ratings and tornado intensity science is just strange to me. Another example (albeit not related to this tornado) is the el Reno tornado being rated EF-3 when there were radar velocities suggesting EF-5 intensity. It seems as if we selectively choose data and ignore other data to rate these tornadoes.

Agree with the upgrade. The data is the data and 140 kts is 140 kts.

Radar presentation of the TN supercell is wild right now

That’s two instances of twin tornadoes today. Definitely something interesting and different this system is providing

03/31/23. Gonna be memorable. Hopefully it cycles or lifts before moving into peoria

Starting to get the feel this day might be remembered…lots of discrete stuff everywhere.. good luck to those chasing band those in the paths of these storms.

My hearts go out to the families who lost loved ones. Historic system producing historic tornadoes.

Take it FWIW, but the system that will cause these events crashed into California yesterday and Monday….and in my 15 years living in Los Angeles it was the strongest system I’ve experienced. Some highlights: - 102 mph wind gust in Valencia, CA - confirmed tornado in Montebello, CA (strongest observed in the Los Angeles area since 1983). Rating still TBD but will likely be assigned an EF-0 or EF-1 based on damage produced - several 60-90 mph wind gusts in San Francisco due to a bomb cyclone that developed at the center of the low pressure system I got my eyes on this one

Seeing the system become a prolific wind maker is not surprising. Two days ago when I came ashore in Southern California it had quite strong winds even after the low had passed