Normandy Ho

It’s hard to get away from run off areas because humans build near and around them (see the LA river for example). it can’t be understated that this is a big hydro threat to so cal and the SW

The recon passes thus far show a very broad wind field and loose gradient around the center, which makes sense considering the storm is in the process of undergoing an ERC. Further strengthening would be tough since it’s already pretty deep of a system and broad, however the storm is very well ventilated aloft and is drawing moisture from the south and Baja of California. Therefore I wouldn’t rule it out. bottom line is the broad windfield will make it such that TS winds and heavy rains will arrive well before the center will. There won’t be time for this to spin down because of cold waters as impacts will be felt while the center is still 300 (or more) miles south.

depending on how the track plays out, this could be a hydro disaster for Los angeles. If it comes in farther west and puts 6 inches of rain down in one day……I’m not even sure the Los Angeles river would stay in its banks. Crazy times.

To answer your question bluntly: there is no comparison between a TC and our winter storms. The strongest winter storms put down 30 sustained with gusts in the 60’s. Maybe 2 inches of rain. A direct tc strike puts a little more wind and double to the rain. The second part is what will be devastating. The wind we can deal with

That’s big deal if verified. The rain alone is enough to be record setting. The wind is the cherry on top. I’m officially on alert as a resident of LA

There might need to be serious convos about a tropical cyclone strike on so cal

If the GFS is to be believed, we see three named storms at least before august ends. Other model consensus also coming into agreement. The bell has been rung!

Agree the pot is getting hot and storms are going to form soon. Not seeing an august shut out at all based on current modeling. Even a look at satellite one can see very discernible waves / future lows in the gulf and near the Bahamas.

My running theory is that as waters warm and stay warm later into the winter months, nor’easters will start to become more powerful and damaging (basically superstorm Sandy’s become more frequent) . Fun speculation during these dog days of hurricane summer

It’s less about name wasting and more about consistency. 97L to my untrained eye looks like more than a frontal low. I’ve seen stuff like this named before. Very deep convection and obvious LLC.

People agree with the NHC in this? That looks like a TC to me

I think we got a TC out of 97L

Not sure why Don hasn’t been upgraded yet. I get it’s not a threat to land but a hurricane is a hurricane

Agree. This will do enough to get named but I don’t think it will do much.

95L looks very classifiable to me. Small but very well defined circulation with persistent convection.

Data from the ECMWF and UKMet in Dr. Knolls superblend are still suggestive of an active hurricane season despite the El Niño. Still guessing we get a lot of named systems but perhaps not a lot of strong ones.

We have already had three named storms though. Not seeing anything right now that would suggest anything different from two weeks ago? Are you seeing different forecasts coming out that suggest a lower than normal season (well lower than predicted I guess)

The storm is completely decoupled at the mid and low levels it appears. Interesting note by the NHC there on the recon data which seems to support this.

That's wild! Would those be considered separate tornadoes or multi-vortex? Kind of blurs the line at times. Thanks for sharing.

93L has two vorticity centers…one around 10N which is being used to designate/track the invest. And another near 5 N. Should be fun to track. Crazy how much activity there is this early

The wave behind 92L looks just as good right now. We might have 2 MDR systems come this time tomorrow.

GFS is showing a gyre like system that dominates the gulf for the near future. Interesting to see how that feature develops. Seems like it would be a crazy rainmaker for the south. The “phantom” is now a strung out mess that gets absorbed into the aforementioned gyre

It’s not on an island though. The euro also shows this vorticity now. The timeframe has been consistent as well. I hear the GFS produces phantoms but one needs to look at all the evidence before just blabbering “phantom”. It’s lazy analysis

while the MDR system is interesting, the WCAR system is the one we should be watching. GFS looks like it’s gonna win huge with this one, lots of people discarded it’s solutions and laughed.

GFS very consistent run to run….having a higher confidence this isn’t a phantom