Normandy Ho

Not crazy at all to presume a cane when recons gets there. It’s very clearly in a RI cycle now

Explosive convective development ongoing. This is so far ahead of schedule it’s honestly frightening.

It’s not often you get something this well organized with this much time over jet fuel. impressive outflow in all quadrants. It’s a beast of a cyclone in the making. Still like near tampa for landfall but I’m seeing the east shifts that usually occur with these setups. That’s being said there is enough rushing to the east to keep this north of fort myers I think.

The center drop is suggestive of a very healthy circulation despite being exposed right now. I would expect a big convective burst soon.

I would keep an eye on the southern convective blow up. It is developing an inflow tail which leads me to believe it might become dominant as it rotates up around the edge of the gyre.

Evening thoughts remain unchanged from yesterday. The mean cyclonic center of the storm is sufficiently off the coast that I think steady deepening will occur over tomorrow as it meanders near the Yucatan. I can easily see a strong TS approaching hurricane status before it turns northward. Once it turns north, you have an excellent setup for a major hurricane strike: deep ULL to the west and high to the east, with a poleward jet developing on approach to the coast. While the ingredients are not identical, there are several hurricanes with this type of setup that have deepened upon approach to the gulf coast / FL peninsula. Still like my call of a major into the area just north of Tampa.

Agree with you. Wild model swings and a very chaotic pattern is indeed fascinating to watch

Franklin appears to have been one of these storms where once shear let go it instantly became a strong hurricane. Perhaps the mid level vortex was already very strong and the shear was simply displacing it east. Fascinating to watch unfold!

Agree with all. No question this is a tropical cyclone and the NHC should to pull the trigger soon. Looks too good on all levels (banding, outflow, convection, radar presentation).

Morning trends make it very obvious that this is consolidating further east, and I’m not sure what is going to drive this west into the yucatan as models are suggesting. Still like the idea of a major hurricane into the FL peninsula somewhere near Tampa.

This is a crazy odd storm structurally. Certainly due to the heavy shear

It’s not unreasonable. Guidance that keeps this away from the Yucatan have a strong system hitting land. If the low stays offshore and has 90 hours over water, getting a strong to major hurricane isn’t even a high ceiling. Let’s see how it plays out though I staked my claim and the crow may come!

Looking at trends tonight I’m upping my original call to a strong to major hurricane. Convection is already expansive and cyclonic turning is very robust. Further east development of convection leads me to think interaction with the Yucatan will be minimal. This is developing in the same manner Harold did except it has more time over water. I Like 110 mph into FL near Tampa.

Early thoughts: vorticity seems to be setting up further east and north from the coast, leading me to think we get a stronger landfall out of this as interaction with the Yucatán might be limited. I like the idea of a hurricane strike out of this. Somewhere on the FL peninsula North of Miami.

There is certainly an argument for hurricane intensity at landfall based on obs and radar data. It was wrapping up in a VERY rapid manner at landfall

I would watch the area north of Panama right now. Tons of convection and a lot of surface convergence. It appears this might be a piece of energy that was shed westward out of franklins intense convective bursts yesterday and last night

I’m not certain a center reforms. A new burst has occurred where recon currently fixed it (SE of the previous location). Track implications are certain with this wild motion. Interesting to watch unfold

How was Gert a joke? It’s had an LLC for days and has been producing consistent convection. I get that y’all want your El Niño numbers but science is science guys.

Starting to get some orographic enhancement from the San Bernardino mountains. Solid band of rain me of LA and E if LA

here in so cal there have been essentially zero winds. The gradient of the storm is such that the SW US gets the TS winds as stated above

Felt the earthquake was a solid shake. Main show is starting in Los Angeles. Big band starting to establish itself over the western parts of the city

In Los Angeles we are already getting good rains with the band ahead of the low. We are currently in a lull as we are in the space between the two competing lows, but as Hillary draws closer winds will turn offshore and I expect heavy training bands to set up tonight in advance of the center.

Sleeper system potentially considering its current organizational trend. Like the idea of a strong TS landfall out of this

The NHC’s lack of propensity to name obvious tropical cyclones is starting to get annoying. It took them far too long to name Emily and the day before TD 6. Just because it’s in the open ocean doesn’t mean you don’t initiate advisories when it’s an obvious TC

Seems like they found a steady state system based on the latest NHC update. Either way weakening should start soon. Already seeing signs on the NW side