Normandy Ho

Land interaction looks to save us here. It’s already getting very far south

Would be an extreme wind event for S Florida due to fast motion

with the active November on going, we might have a top hurricane season if all time when it’s all said and done. Unthinkable considering where we were in July and august lol

Yowza. S FL got a problem on its hands I think

It’s theoretically possible but the synoptic pattern to drive a TC NNW through the gulf without impacting land on either side is challenging to achieve. Odds are less than 1% I’d say. It’s more likely to get a recurving baroclinally enhanced storm hit LA, and even then it wouldn’t be a hurricane

With the GFS showing a carribean cyclone train starting early November, might actually back into hyperactivity. Wild season

Let’s go bruh. Fantastic news

If @Windspeed can notice this yesterday morning, than the national hurricane center can to. The “it’s a small system” isn’t an excuse this time. The NHC’s policy of not naming something until recon gets there bit them in the ass time. Got to use other data sources other than models and recon. Especially when it’s THIS close to land. No excuses. hopefully Oscar doesn’t get too strong today because everyone in it’s path is unprepared.

It’s ridiculous. They deserve all the smoke for this literally asleep at the wheel

To put it in perspective the El Reno tornado was 2.6 miles wide, barely smaller than this eye

For sure. But yesterday when it was passing north of PR there were signals it had a closed circulation. I think the NHC overall has a more conservative policy re: Naming systems and that’s fine, but you might run into situations like today where Oscar suddenly appears. I hear your point though

No other way around it the NHC dropped the ball here

Is what it is bruh the NHC is DONE after Helene and Milton if land isn’t on the table lol. And I get it, but this has been a slop TC for a minute

Aged well bruh!

Serious question. Why is this not named? I don’t understand the NHCs policy with respect to naming tropical cyclones. I mean I get that we don’t want to waste man power on useless advisories for a namewaster, but then let’s change the criteria

That’s a good shout. Tracy is an interesting case study and makes me wonder if it was a bit more intense than realized. A cyclone that small is essentially producing a tsunami like water rise which has to have tremendous wind to generate it at such a small and localized scale

The only small storm I can think of that produced a significant surge was hurricane Andrew (16 feet I believe). For the small storm to produce substantial surge it basically has to be a cat five nuclear grade cane. Even charley didn’t produce much.

Very odd track on this one.

Agree. The surge values can’t be assumed to be extreme because the storm is a cat 5 l. I would argue the biggest indicator of severe surge is the radius of TS force winds. That is something that Katrina, Helene, and Ike all had common

I mean we are in mid October and the GFS is still showing signs of life at 384. I’m hopeful but Jesus man this season taking 6 weeks off during prime time and backloading it is unreal

This. It’s so apparent

The fact that we have already experienced the costliest hurricane season on record and are facing potential threats until mid November is very sobering.

The tornado outbreak on that radar loop…what a beast of a storm

Meteorologically speaking, the most interesting thing easily is the historic and unprecedented tornado outbreak this system produced. Nobody will ever say this out loud and it will never be recorded a historical fact, but yesterdays tornado outbreak was potentially one of the biggest numbers wise in US history. half of the event the tornadic supercells went offshore and thus warnings stopped. I said this yesterday but if there was more land to the east the number of tornado warnings and confirmed tornadoes would have doubled. You would have had well over 200 warnings and 30 confirmed. In FLORIDA.

I thought Helene was impressive inland but this might even be wilder. Still showing very strong winds aloft. One has to wonder once it gets to the east coast of Florida is it going to intensify?