WxWatcher007 Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 I know we rarely have separate threads for EPAC systems, but given the current NHC track and potential high impact in the SW US, I think it's worth a thread. Hilary is currently undergoing rapid intensification, with it attaining category two status as of the noon MDT (2pm EST) NHC intermediate advisory. As you can see on the recent IR image, an inner core has developed and we have an apparent attempt to clear the eye. The current environment for intensification is about as good as it gets, and this should easily reach major hurricane status. An anomalous steering pattern with an eastward shifting ridge and trough west of CA looks more likely, causing Hilary to move NW into Baja and potentially southern California. Despite the track and intensity forecast generally being solid, we still have significant uncertainty as Hilary approaches Baja and the SW US. In terms of impact, while it's novel to have an actual tropical storm in California, it looks like rainfall and flooding will be the main hazard, with a rare moderate risk for excessive rainfall for part of southern CA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 Can't help but think this could be a massive hydro issue there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 17, 2023 Author Share Posted August 17, 2023 Considering that some of these areas don't get this much rain in a year, it could get real bad if this forecast verifies. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 Yeah, this is looking like a really significant flash flooding event for many areas of SoCal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 Looks baller on vis. Classic RI ongoing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 Anyone know if recon will be flying into it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Anyone know if recon will be flying into it? tomorrow.. looks like she is starting to really get going now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 Vegas might shutdown for like a week if they see even 2-3 inches of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Vegas might shutdown for like a week if they see even 2-3 inches of rain Don't they see significant rains during monsoon season on a regular basis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 depending on how the track plays out, this could be a hydro disaster for Los angeles. If it comes in farther west and puts 6 inches of rain down in one day……I’m not even sure the Los Angeles river would stay in its banks. Crazy times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 Just now, NJwx85 said: Don't they see significant rains during monsoon season on a regular basis? They do but for maybe 30-45 minutes, and even .30-.40 in that span can flood hotels/etc. I think if they saw a day with several inches and periodically saw amounts over .50 in an hour they'd have big issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Don't they see significant rains during monsoon season on a regular basis? Not widespread heavy rainfall like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 Convection wrapped fully around the eye the past couple frames. Could easily be a major by 8pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 When was the last time a tropical cyclone made landfall in CA? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, cheese007 said: When was the last time a tropical cyclone made landfall in CA? 1939. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 Hurrevac has the storm at 100 mph near San Diego! I have a hard time buying that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 17, 2023 Author Share Posted August 17, 2023 35 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 1939. 1939 for a sea to land landfall, but I think 97 was the last time a designated TS was over CA. 11 minutes ago, eyewall said: Hurrevac has the storm at 100 mph near San Diego! I have a hard time buying that right now. Yeah I’d sell that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 17, 2023 Author Share Posted August 17, 2023 No special analysis here but Hilary is almost certainly a major hurricane now given the continuous improvement on IR especially the last few hours. Now it’s a question of how high it can go. (time sensitive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 Classic deep tropical cane right now with the rapidly cooling CDO and expansive spiral banding in all quadrants. Feel like the ceiling is pretty high over the next 24-36 hours. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 We'll also have recon tomorrow. Quote 000 NOUS42 KNHC 171455 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1055 AM EDT THU 17 AUGUST 2023 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z AUGUST 2023 TCPOD NUMBER.....23-079 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. HURRICANE HILARY FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 78 A. 18/1730Z A. 19/0530Z B. AFXXX 0109E HILARY B. AFXXX 0209E HILARY C. 18/1215Z C. 19/0015Z D. 18.5N 112.1W D. 20.3N 113.3W E. 18/1700Z TO 18/2030Z E. 19/0500Z TO 19/0830Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT G. FIX G. FIX 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HOURLY FIXES. BEGIN 6-HOURLY FIXES AT 20/1130Z. $$ WJM/SET NNNN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Vegas might shutdown for like a week if they see even 2-3 inches of rain Indeed! Per official LV records that go back to 1937, the heaviest two consecutive calendar day rainfall on record is 2.59" that fell August 20-21, 1957. That was also during an oncoming strong El Niño, coincidence or not. Next was the 2.10" of 12/28-9/2004 (weak El Niño). The 3rd heaviest was August 21-22, 2012 (warm neutral ENSO), when 2.03" fell. So, 2 of the 3 heaviest were during August 20-22. The upcoming heavy rain threat looks to be centered on August 20-21! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 Raw T is now up to 6.7. Still one crappy shower left in the eye that needs to clear out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 18z GFS has Hilary at 991mb at landfall in southern california. This is going to be interesting to track for sure. Even if it becomes post tropical at landfall or landfalls into the Baja instead the effects are going to be huge and problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 Other than the flash flooding, isn’t this overall an excellent thing for the region to end the long term drought? Last winters snows and rains seemed extremely beneficial but this seems like it could be the nail in the coffin to end the drought many thought would never end just a year ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18, 2023 Author Share Posted August 18, 2023 14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Other than the flash flooding, isn’t this overall an excellent thing for the region to end the long term drought? Last winters snows and rains seemed extremely beneficial but this seems like it could be the nail in the coffin to end the drought many thought would never end just a year ago I’m not sure, but I spoke to a friend from LA and he said he’s hopeful this’ll act to suppress fire season. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 45 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m not sure, but I spoke to a friend from LA and he said he’s hopeful this’ll act to suppress fire season. I know. I’m reading on here and it’s like doom and gloom with how “bad” it’s gonna be in the SW and I’m just thinking how people are worried that “a remnant tropical system hitting the most drought stricken part of the country over the last decade” is a bad thing… Like how was the drought going to end? Endless days of light rain in the southwest? This seems like the absolute best scenario possible after the great winter they had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 For years they’ve filled the news with pictures of lake Mead evaporating and this could possibly fill the lake up. Sounds like a win to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I know. I’m reading on here and it’s like doom and gloom with how “bad” it’s gonna be in the SW and I’m just thinking how people are worried that “a remnant tropical system hitting the most drought stricken part of the country over the last decade” is a bad thing… Like how was the drought going to end? Endless days of light rain in the southwest? This seems like the absolute best scenario possible after the great winter they had The terrain and soil types in the SW are not conducive for absorbing this much rainfall in such a short amount of times. Many locations are about to receive a year's worth of precipitation in under 72 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 57 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m not sure, but I spoke to a friend from LA and he said he’s hopeful this’ll act to suppress fire season. Yea fire season has been suppressed north way north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18, 2023 Author Share Posted August 18, 2023 19 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I know. I’m reading on here and it’s like doom and gloom with how “bad” it’s gonna be in the SW and I’m just thinking how people are worried that “a remnant tropical system hitting the most drought stricken part of the country over the last decade” is a bad thing… Like how was the drought going to end? Endless days of light rain in the southwest? This seems like the absolute best scenario possible after the great winter they had 14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The terrain and soil types in the SW are not conducive for absorbing this much rainfall in such a short amount of times. Many locations are about to receive a year's worth of precipitation in under 72 hours. Well that’s the thing, right? It’s probably great for the basins, but in those desert and urban areas it just runs off. If it verifies God help people unaware enough to travel into some of those parks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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