August 2023

[nycwinter]

42 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It could but probably weaken to a 3 at landfall

probably will continue to get stronger up to landfall..in those hot gulf temps.

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

Wild.  The main reason I hope to see that again is for Forky's complete meltdown.  

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

this is pretty nuts for an ensemble mean

 

[nycwinter]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

canadian ensemble trending in that direction 

mid 80's wow how will i  ever be able to take the heat..

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, Picard said:

Given the bathtub water in the gulf, what's the chances Idalia blows into a Cat 4 or 5 whilst crossing the gulf?

 

Not good with the sheer

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

this is pretty nuts for an ensemble mean

Ok so it'll be 90F in early September...big whoop

[uofmiami]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

canadian ensemble trending in that direction 

Heat going up and over us. You can’t catch a break with your heat desire.

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Heat going up and over us. You can’t catch a break with your heat desire.

brrr

[SnowDemon]

Lol, is forky really gassed about the potential of a few days of 90s? Sign of the times.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, SnowDemon said:

Lol, is forky really gassed about the potential of a few days of 90s? Sign of the times.

Remember how excited we were for an inch and a half in late February?

[SnoSki14]

If only the GFS has a clue because that would be an impressive September heat wave 

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

brrr

Snow in Idaho!  Brrrrr indeed!

[SACRUS]

 

8/28

 

PHL: 84
ACY: 80
EWR: 78
New Brnswck: 77
LGA: 77
TTN: 77
TEB: 76
NYC: 76
BLM: 74
JFK: 74
ISP: 73

[donsutherland1]

August will close out with cooler than normal readings. Tomorrow could see highs only in the 70s across much of the region. Showers and a period of rain are likely tomorrow night into Wednesday.

Out West, Phoenix recorded a 117° high temperature, which tied the August record. Brownsville reached 106°, which tied that city's all-time high.

Tomorrow into tomorrow night, Idalia will likely undergo rapid intensification. It could make Florida landfall as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane.  

In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week of September. Some short-lived warmth could arrive late in the first week of September. More sustained unseasonable warmth could develop afterward.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around August 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -10.99 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.794 today.

On August 26 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.148 (RMM). The August 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.180 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.8° (1.3° below normal).

 

[TriPol]

38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

August will close out with cooler than normal readings. Tomorrow could see highs only in the 70s across much of the region. Showers and a period of rain are likely tomorrow night into Wednesday.

Out West, Phoenix recorded a 117° high temperature, which tied the August record. Brownsville reached 106°, which tied that city's all-time high.

Tomorrow into tomorrow night, Idalia will likely undergo rapid intensification. It could make Florida landfall as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane.  

In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week of September. Some short-lived warmth could arrive late in the first week of September. More sustained unseasonable warmth could develop afterward.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around August 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -10.99 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.794 today.

On August 26 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.148 (RMM). The August 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.180 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.8° (1.3° below normal).

 

When was the last time we had a colder than normal august?

[SACRUS]

2 hours ago, TriPol said:

When was the last time we had a colder than normal august?

 

2019, 2017 most recent

EWR:

2019 : -0.2 

2017 / -2.4

 

Thru 8/28 

EWR: +0.2

[TheClimateChanger]

On 8/26/2023 at 1:29 PM, forkyfork said:

80s with high dewpoints and lows in the 70s. brrrr

Now this is an actual cold summer. On this date 41 years ago, the temperature dropped to 38 at Washington-Dulles Airport. Widespread frost, and even areas of freezing conditions, throughout the eastern US.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/local/1982/08/30/a-cold-snap-replaces-usual-august-steambath/8ae62318-f533-4734-8ef0-2f9d4a99edc5/

[winterwarlock]

I guess its not going to rain today during the daytime hours

[CIK62]

The last 3 days of August are averaging   76degs.(69/83) or +2.

Month to date is   75.2[-1.1].      August should end at 75.2[-0.9]

HW Alert?????    Sept. 03-10.    Avg.> 85(76/95) +13!

Reached 81 here at 2pm.

Today:  75-79, wind e., m. cloudy, some Rain late, 73 tomorrow AM.

69*(89%RH) here at 7am.     72* at 9am.       79* at 2pm.       77* at 3pm.

 

[Brian5671]

49 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

I guess its not going to rain today during the daytime hours

models struggling with this one-some have very little for tomorrow now too..

[Brian5671]

13 hours ago, SnowDemon said:

Lol, is forky really gassed about the potential of a few days of 90s? Sign of the times.

Desperation time as summer winds down....

[donsutherland1]

On 8/25/2023 at 9:58 PM, jm1220 said:

Pure hell out there. Austin hit 110 earlier this month and 107 today. By far their longest 100+ stretch and second longest 105+ stretch on record. 

It's longest 105+ streak was set earlier this year. No pre-2023 streak rivals the two streaks this year.

[donsutherland1]

10 hours ago, TriPol said:

When was the last time we had a colder than normal august?

2019 was NYC's last cooler than normal August. August 2023 will be the coolest August since August 2017. Both August 2017 and August 2019 were followed by a warmer than normal September.

[Dark Star]

Is there some sort of atmospheric "Conservation of Energy" when there are two hurricanes in relative close proximity, sort of like when you have two low pressure systems?

[winterwarlock]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

models struggling with this one-some have very little for tomorrow now too..

Terrible...they talked up rain all day on Tuesday for the past few days and poof last night changed the whole forecast

[SACRUS]

71 and overcast.  Trough moving through with scattered showers, brut of rain missing south and east?  We'll see how much we can get in the bucket.  Clearing out later tomorrow Wed (8/30) and ending the month near normal Fri (8/31) N flow going a bit onshore as trough lifts out and heights rise.  Ridge up and over the top, similar to early June to open Sep.  Ridge building into GL/OV with deep trough into the PNW/W .  Overall warm to at times hot when the flow comes around to the NW/ .   Sep 3 - Sep 11 looking dry but tropical systems could bring rains in what looks like a relatively dry couple of weeks.

 

Beyond there looking like overall warm  with heights up into the east.

 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

30 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Terrible...they talked up rain all day on Tuesday for the past few days and poof last night changed the whole forecast

Yeah I was really surprised to see the amounts removed from the forecast today. Meaning, we will be lucky to get a few showers. 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 100 (1953)
NYC: 99 (1953)
LGA: 100 (1953)


Lows:

EWR: 45 (1982)
NYC: 50 (1986)
LGA: 51 (1982)


Historical:

 

1962 - Hackberry, LA, was deluged with twenty-two inches of rain in 24 hours, establishing a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1965 - A national record for the month of August was established when 2.5 inches of snow fell atop Mount Washington NH. Temperatures in New England dipped to 39 degrees at Nantucket MA, and to 25 degrees in Vermont. For many location it was the earliest freeze of record. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Some of the most powerful thunderstorms in several years developed over the piedmont of North Carolina, and marched across central sections of the state during the late afternoon and evening hours. Baseball size hail was reported around Albemarle, while thunderstorm winds downed giant trees around High Falls. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Cool air invaded the north central U.S. Ten cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Bismarck ND with a reading of 33 degrees. Deerfield, a small town in the Black Hills of South Dakota, reported a low of 23 degrees. The remnants of Tropical Storm Chris drenched eastern Pennsylvania with up to five and a half inches of rain, and produced high winds which gusted to 90 mph, severely damaging a hundred boats in Anne Arundel County MD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Evening thunderstorms produced destructive lightning in West Virginia. The lightning caused widepsread damage, particularily in Doddridge County. Numerous trees were downed closing many roads. Fire companies had a difficult time tending to the many homes and trailers on fire. Anchorage AK reported a record 9.60 inches of rain for the month of August. The average annual precipitation for Anchorage is just slighty more than fifteen inches. Three day rainfall totals in northwest Missouri ranged up to 8.20 inches at Maryville. (The National Weather Summary)

2005 - Hurricane Katrina made landfall in Plaquemines Parish in southeastern Louisiana early on the 29th with maximum sustained winds near 125 mph, a strong category-three, and the third most-intense landfalling hurricane in U.S. history. The center of the hurricane passed just east of New Orleans, where winds gusted over 100 mph. Widespread devastation and unprecedented flooding occurred, submerging at least 80 percent of the city as levees failed. Farther east, powerful winds and a devastating storm surge of 20-30 feet raked the Mississippi coastline, including Gulfport and Biloxi, where Gulf of Mexico floodwaters spread several miles inland. Rainfall amounts of 8-10 inches were common along and to the east of the storm's path. Katrina weakened to a tropical storm as it tracked northward through Mississippi and gradually lost its identity as it moved into the Tennessee Valley on the 30th, dum

 

2005: Hurricane Katrina makes landfall near New Orleans, Louisiana, as a Category 3 hurricane. Despite being only the third most powerful storm of the 2005 hurricane season, Katrina was one of the worst natural disasters in the history of the United States.

[FPizz]

9 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

2019, 2017 most recent

EWR:

2019 : -0.2 

2017 / -2.4

 

Thru 8/28 

EWR: +0.2

Is Newark the only station that is + from when you do your temp readings?

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Is Newark the only station that is + from when you do your temp readings?

At the main sites they are closest to normal.  ISP, TEB also but still a bit below.  Will do the whole list later.  In line with 2019 / 2017 for most spots.  Sep 19 and 17 were both +1.5 or so.  2017 had the heatwave round Sep 20th-22nd.